Monday, October 21, 2019

Week of October 21, 2019

It's all just a big mess the way I see it. Doc's last comment in previous post is pretty much where I put myself as far as risk / reward is concerned. I am going to try not to be surprised at a move in either direction and with FOMC a week from this Wednesday and the fact some big things have been going on around that 1st week of November for awhile...

Not putting up a chart of the RUT but you can tell with the heavy financial weighting in banks that it seems to rally pretty hard off any bump in the 10 year. We have seen the banks putting out numbers they seem to rally off with earnings only to give it all up within the next week or 2. We are in that following week now so perhaps they help with direction.


I know things have been quiet in here of late and for me part of the blame lies with Disqus. I know others are busy with the other grinds and routines. As far as the charts and posts go when we get out of the sideways mess we have been in for nearly 3 months again I would expect things to change. It's a tough trade on the swing side of things so if you aren't day trading.... Anyway, good luck and let's see if we can get kind of direction here. We should be at a turning point of sorts but anytime the FOMC window pops up patience is generally required. The Fed is doing things now that scare me for the most part

Monday, September 23, 2019

Week of September 23, 2019

I know everybody is trying to get this final push up before October is over but I don't necessarily think it is a necessity. I think some fractals are being tossed around to get the move higher but I see others that say it doesn't need to (at least not yet) I still have the same higher targets so this isn't about being bearish by any means. I just think before we can get anything higher this needs a pause cause SPX hasn't even tested 2760's yet and I can't see how that shouldn't happen. I realize it can push up but to think that would add 60 handles from here with a multi-year / decades long line of resistance overhead doesn't make me think it is just going to  blow through that.

The ES extension from the 2991.50 had a PT of 3025.75 before it could break out into that 3040+ area. That PT has been hit and now retested so what is the rush?


Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Week of September 2nd, 2019

One big sloppy mess is all I have to explain this. The last week of August didn't seem to play out the way I had hoped thus I believe delaying the low still anticipated. I do not like how many lower lows the ES made that the SPX has yet to test. I realize it is only a hedging mechanism but just too many of these for my satisfaction.

Simple 1 hour SPX based simply on latest trade

Monday, August 12, 2019

Week of August 12, 2019

Not gonna get carried away yet....


Wednesday, July 31, 2019

July 31, 2019 FOMC

Here we sit in the cat birds seat. It would actually appear to me that this is going to turn out to be a win for bears almost regardless of what they do. Cutting rates does nothing more than add a form of QE into the equation which if memory serves resulted in pull backs so the mighty could buy back cheaper. We have trend lines and measurable fibs overhead that should by all rights stop this thing dead in its tracks. You guys have already pointed out the more obvious technical stuff going on up here and EVERYBODY sees that so is it possible EVERYBODY can be wrong? Powell hasn't exactly had an exemplary track record the day of the announcement so even if he gets a win here how long will it take to get the price levels the world is watching for here. Can they really get a break out? 32 years ago this August was the 1987 top....


Fibs are overhead at 3042 and 3047 in the immediate sense (but when)

Monday, July 22, 2019

Week of July 22, 2019

You guys know I am not into fundamentals and though I have a ton of things on my mind I will wait and see if they can actually get the debt ceiling raised this week before I rant about any of it.

There is no doubt things are in a tight spot right now until this rate cut issue is resolved next week. Personally I don't think they cut yet but if the ceiling is raised... I do believe we are in a bit of a correction here but it is also one I can see taking us another week plus to resolve. My idea was for an August low so there is still time with FOMC to chop this around weakly up here and retest the highs again. They played the typical game of shaking out weak longs then running the shorts again last week. The fact we were weak on Friday leads me to believe we will find weakness again today and most likely into tomorrow. In the immediate sense we finished Friday back into some near term support so this overnight (Sunday / Monday morning) bounce isn't much of a surprise. For now I think regardless of direction you are trading that you take what you can get on a day to day basis or just wait it out. The July high could be in but I don't think it is our high. Things are busy on my end with some personal things so hit and miss for another week or so here..


Monday, July 15, 2019

Week of July 15, 2019

I haven't had a chance to actually go over much but doubt from what little I read from you guys that this is much of a surprise. Thinking is that we are close to a near term top of sorts here but haven't figured out how deep we can retrace here yet. Before I left I had thought an August dip to be bought and wouldn't be surprised to see this give it up into the "supposed" rate cut the end of the month. Given that scenario something in August makes sense. This isn't going to make an ATH in July or August so we aren't done yet. SPX and $XVG charts below. There is still a major divergence in the latter so stocks participating in this rally is still lagging which is not a positive. Lawmakers about to take a break the end of the month / beginning of August so the issue with our debt ceiling is escalating unless they somehow push something or make progress on this issue ahead of their summer break. If not in September we go "broke" again.



Monday, July 1, 2019

Week of July 1, 2019

We are entering a Holiday week and I think as we were all looking higher to see this gap up to start after G20 isn't much of a surprise. The square off both December low, the March low, and most recent low all pointed to about 2988 on the SPX. We can grind out and find it on a low volume week or it waits. I am still trying to locate a couple of the longer term charts but for now just one from over in investing. No TA or anything and the dates at bottom will shift a day due to the holiday coming up Thursday. For what it is worth ES extension long from 2915.75-2969.25 gets that up into first PT around 2989-90


Tuesday, June 18, 2019

June 18, 2019

Just starting a new thread, for no particular reason...

I don't have any deep insights to the mess that is our current market, but an idea that keeps sticking in the back of my mind that I have posted to some degree in the past.  Take it for what it's worth- more stuff thrown against the wall to see if it sticks.  :)

http://schrts.co/BVtGbcfs

(For some reason, I can't seem to get the image to place here, so you'll have to copy/paste the link of the weekly SPX idea).

Monday, June 3, 2019

Week of June 3, 2019

The down trend seems very much intact in the short term. It would seem a counter trend bounce is likely to start taking shape just in time for Quad / FOMC in June. I noticed in the overnight ES went down and tagged 2731.25 and the DAX got down into a longer retrace target so I guess it is whether or not these hold during session hours as we begin the week. Patience still key until there is a sign of buyers on the long side of this.


SPX


RUT