Monday, February 11, 2019

Week of February 11, 2019

KISS is on the agenda for the week. It just seems obvious we will need to retest that 2739 before anything more dramatic is going to happen. On Friday we were able to tag one of the lesser profit targets for the short that was in play. It seems the 2018 playbook is still in operation where ya run the longs, then the shorts and make a  healthier decision on direction. Opex happens to be this Friday so I believe it is intelligent to let the chips fall where they may. This has been a helluva run and I can't ignore how overbought the MACD is. It is at the highest level we have seen since January 2018.

I copied over the the channel from Jan 2018 high to the Dec low and drug it up across the Oct high

Monday, February 4, 2019

Week of February 4, 2019

It seems we are up against it here both in time and price. Being able to clear the current high made Friday only seems to get us about 20 more. In this 2735 area the market had trouble more than on one ocassion in 2018. Admittedly things are not heavily traded so who knows what they can actually do #RMS. It definitely has an ending diagonal look taking shape up here near the end of this run.

Sunday, January 27, 2019

Week of January 28, 2019

FOMC, Apple, and Amazon on deck. I personally found it strange that as close as we were to being able to take out the previous weeks high we did not and instead made a lower high. As you all know EW is not my thing but I believe (Cause I still have downside bias) this could have been a b wave back up and the correction that possibly started this past week could lead us lower. This would still leave room and some time for a higher high or it just continues with more downside than expected. I would imagine the Sunday night stuff could give us a clue yet we have the aforementioned waiting to take a swing. A year ago this past Friday is what led to the February 2018 low but I believe we can get an inverted cycle in here based on the same time frames as last year if indeed they wanna run this a little higher first. 

Just another perspective and I want to point out the area of resistance we are at. 2710-2711 was the first area of a more major support area (if you can actually call it that) off the initial decline. We also have the 2714 level now where the inclination of the retrace back up that would break the shorts.  I only have to ask myself if it is a necessity just because that is where it is at. Do they have to run the shorts, and if so how ridiculous was it to hold on to them for this entire run back up? This is not a short squeeze at all from behind these eyes.

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

January 22, 2019

We are finally entering that point of recognition now with Opex behind us. I would guess we have into FOMC and the end of the month to chop this out then find out what it is all about. As per the latest in the discussion on the last thread we are pretty much in the same cycle as we were a year ago. This doesn't mean it can be followed with any accuracy but at least we have some dates we can look at. Personally I wouldn't be surprised to see them invert a bit going into quarter end. All we can do is chase the tape and be on the right side of it. We are up against a few things here so we shall see how they play the gap game over the next couple of weeks.

The "High Window" runs from around 1/25-2/6. Lost a little at the end of the chart.

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Week of January 14, 2019

As was expected we managed to get right back into that 12/19/2018 Fed number and a few more for good measure. I still think we can grind this just a little bit higher with all the January Opex stuff that goes on. I believe the best fit would be to do this into the Monday / Tuesday time frame. This means what ES does overnight should give us a tell and since Friday was just a check of weekly resistance without anything happening for a correction we should see follow through. Easiest way for them to clear resistance? the typical gap up over it on low volume. I would think if the opposite occurs it is more for the Opex pin high since we have all the dated stuff that comes due as well. 

To look forward just a little bit I think a higher high than last week this week will get us a little correction only to be back at these levels again at FOMC the end of the month. After this month we don't have another meeting until March 19-20 so the only interference will be the release of the month end minutes in mid February. I believe this will allow for the market to find a decent low into or just after the March meeting and could present a decent swing long into May - July. One step at a time however and the market has to cooperate to bring all this into fruition. At least if it does the lower volatility will make put buying a little cheaper. I am seriously looking for some longer dated calls though once we get this figured out in the next couple of months. Daily and Weekly charts up here and will post more below as time warrants today. 

Thursday, January 10, 2019

Jan 10, 2019

Per request an attempt to outsmart Disqus LOL

January 6 2009 chart for $NYMO extreme reading example

Sunday, January 6, 2019

Week of Jan 7, 2019 (Fed minutes)

We head into the release of Fed minutes pretty much as expected near the scene of the crime. What happened this past Friday and maybe into January 7th (Monday) could actually end this run.
We just need to be aware heading into that release and see exactly how deep this upcoming pull back gets us. The $NYMO came off the lowest reading since the February 2018 lows into a level we haven't seen since the run took off in February of 2016. Not 2017 or 2018 but 2016 nearly 3 years ago now. I cannot fathom this being healthy  unless some very serious consolidation can take place. Instead it looks like a set up for disaster to me and it could happen very quickly. I am only posting the SPX daily chart and the older election line chart I hadn't done anything with since after the end of September highs hit. On both charts you will see the line we are currently sitting at and what we need to clear. Probably room for 6-10 above the January 4 highs. When I was in some other charts it looked like 2542ish but would climb a few during the week. Trade safe and be alert (yeah even for a break out LOL). As of the turn near the fall highs our monthly highs have been the first part of the month... I still believe we head to mid 2200's and can do so before the FOMC meeting the end of the month. If it doesn't happen by then it could be the catalyst into the first part of February that gets us there (or lower)

Tuesday, January 1, 2019

Welcome 2019

I am going to approach 2019 with an open mind although in the process I expect to remain bias bearish moving forward. This isn't to mean I won't look for bounces, I just feel there is work to be done underneath us. I do believe it will be a process. To kick things off I am neutral to slightly bullish into the release of FOMC minutes. Thought was we needed to visit the scene of the crime.
Happy New Year everybody and I hope it is prosperous for all.

Saturday, December 15, 2018

December 15, 2018

I posted some charts below. Looking across everything it seems we are in another leg down. The question is how much of one. We have the profit targets of the short that are already into the 2520's which takes out the 2018 lows. It seems things are at extremes but are we to trust those issues is a query one must ponder. We have Quad and FOMC this week so it seems feasible just to let things unfold a step at a time but remaining (in my view) a little bearish to neutral.

Monday, December 10, 2018

Week of December 10, 2018

Sentiment on my part has not changed. Beginning with Thursday of this week and into a week from this Friday we have ES Rollover, FOMC, and Quad Opex. Let it do its thing between now and then would be my recommendation.

SPX Monthly

I haven't posted this one for a couple months so thought it was worth the look again. I will post others below in discussion as warranted.