Monday, August 12, 2019

Week of August 12, 2019

Not gonna get carried away yet....

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

July 31, 2019 FOMC

Here we sit in the cat birds seat. It would actually appear to me that this is going to turn out to be a win for bears almost regardless of what they do. Cutting rates does nothing more than add a form of QE into the equation which if memory serves resulted in pull backs so the mighty could buy back cheaper. We have trend lines and measurable fibs overhead that should by all rights stop this thing dead in its tracks. You guys have already pointed out the more obvious technical stuff going on up here and EVERYBODY sees that so is it possible EVERYBODY can be wrong? Powell hasn't exactly had an exemplary track record the day of the announcement so even if he gets a win here how long will it take to get the price levels the world is watching for here. Can they really get a break out? 32 years ago this August was the 1987 top....

Fibs are overhead at 3042 and 3047 in the immediate sense (but when)

Monday, July 22, 2019

Week of July 22, 2019

You guys know I am not into fundamentals and though I have a ton of things on my mind I will wait and see if they can actually get the debt ceiling raised this week before I rant about any of it.

There is no doubt things are in a tight spot right now until this rate cut issue is resolved next week. Personally I don't think they cut yet but if the ceiling is raised... I do believe we are in a bit of a correction here but it is also one I can see taking us another week plus to resolve. My idea was for an August low so there is still time with FOMC to chop this around weakly up here and retest the highs again. They played the typical game of shaking out weak longs then running the shorts again last week. The fact we were weak on Friday leads me to believe we will find weakness again today and most likely into tomorrow. In the immediate sense we finished Friday back into some near term support so this overnight (Sunday / Monday morning) bounce isn't much of a surprise. For now I think regardless of direction you are trading that you take what you can get on a day to day basis or just wait it out. The July high could be in but I don't think it is our high. Things are busy on my end with some personal things so hit and miss for another week or so here..

Monday, July 15, 2019

Week of July 15, 2019

I haven't had a chance to actually go over much but doubt from what little I read from you guys that this is much of a surprise. Thinking is that we are close to a near term top of sorts here but haven't figured out how deep we can retrace here yet. Before I left I had thought an August dip to be bought and wouldn't be surprised to see this give it up into the "supposed" rate cut the end of the month. Given that scenario something in August makes sense. This isn't going to make an ATH in July or August so we aren't done yet. SPX and $XVG charts below. There is still a major divergence in the latter so stocks participating in this rally is still lagging which is not a positive. Lawmakers about to take a break the end of the month / beginning of August so the issue with our debt ceiling is escalating unless they somehow push something or make progress on this issue ahead of their summer break. If not in September we go "broke" again.

Monday, July 1, 2019

Week of July 1, 2019

We are entering a Holiday week and I think as we were all looking higher to see this gap up to start after G20 isn't much of a surprise. The square off both December low, the March low, and most recent low all pointed to about 2988 on the SPX. We can grind out and find it on a low volume week or it waits. I am still trying to locate a couple of the longer term charts but for now just one from over in investing. No TA or anything and the dates at bottom will shift a day due to the holiday coming up Thursday. For what it is worth ES extension long from 2915.75-2969.25 gets that up into first PT around 2989-90

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

June 18, 2019

Just starting a new thread, for no particular reason...

I don't have any deep insights to the mess that is our current market, but an idea that keeps sticking in the back of my mind that I have posted to some degree in the past.  Take it for what it's worth- more stuff thrown against the wall to see if it sticks.  :)

(For some reason, I can't seem to get the image to place here, so you'll have to copy/paste the link of the weekly SPX idea).

Monday, June 3, 2019

Week of June 3, 2019

The down trend seems very much intact in the short term. It would seem a counter trend bounce is likely to start taking shape just in time for Quad / FOMC in June. I noticed in the overnight ES went down and tagged 2731.25 and the DAX got down into a longer retrace target so I guess it is whether or not these hold during session hours as we begin the week. Patience still key until there is a sign of buyers on the long side of this.



Monday, May 20, 2019

Week of May 20, 2019

Thought I would just toss up the weekly view once again. FOMC Minutes are released on Wednesday and we have Memorial Day next Monday. ES still bearish below 2899.50 and SPX bearish below 2895.50 so until this changes....

Weekly MACD behaving at typical pull back level (no cross yet though)

Monday, May 13, 2019

Week of May 13, 2019

Bears are still in control and it appears we are ready to test the long off that 2722. I think we need to be prepared for a run of them longs and then perhaps that RYFO rally. Breaking it does however toss out a warning signal as well (sell the rips kind of thing)

2811 pretty much tests the long and trendline is right here as well

Monday, May 6, 2019

Week of May 6, 2019

I honestly have not had time to look things over since I left. I do see the "little" gap down in the futures going on that apparently was on trade news. I did notice we had the highest weekly close but we saw this in January 2018 too so this isn't necessarily a new thing #RMS. Perhaps something has gotten started here ...TBD.