Monday, November 19, 2018

Thanksgiving Week 2018

Last week we managed to run both sides of the trade off the 2603-2815. I would anticipate with Thanksgiving falling this week the volume would be a little lighter. The last 2 highs came FOMC Statement and the release of the minutes prior to that. Next week we have the minutes coming out for the November statement along with QT that is left on the table for the month of November. As long as we can hold that 2690-2700 range I would think somehow we rally into the middle to end of next week. Obviously below these levels provides opportunity for the other side of the trade. Looking through the charts they seemed fairly neutral so that is my stance until proven otherwise. I don't expect to take and hold a position until Monday / Tuesday can prove a trend. I noticed futures challenged the Friday high in the overnight session and fell off again so it is apparent we need to hold the immediate along with bigger long from 2603 before the upside is proven.

Monday, November 12, 2018

Week of November 12, 2018

We are into monthly Opex week. Reviewing the charts left mixed feelings. On one hand we managed to rally back into another FOMC price causing another flat that has so far failed to give up that resistance area. On the other the structure just seems incomplete and screams another high. If the latter is the case then this is the week to do so. It would appear anything, even if minimal, would suffice. This past Friday seemed to find buyers at the 200 daily moving average so we have that to work with and overhead it seems near 2825-32 seems viable. I will post a weekly chart in the comment section which depicts a rejection at a weekly trend line along with the 2816-20 price that is being defended to this point.

Last week we discussed the idea of how we could find a low this past Friday into Monday (Today) so the ability to hold the Friday low could be significant since it would break down the 200dma. 

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Vote For Imbecile's Day 2018

Today we get to vote and pretend it has any impact whatsoever. Personally I am sick of the shit. I don't see a "United" States of America. I see a united country of corruption and cry babies. Every one of these assholes hides behind he said, she said. I don't see crap being done about the issues that demand attention being debated. I don't see a person in my state running for a seat that deserves my vote. Period, end of story. If this is the best we have to offer cause another politician said so, and if the same is true across this country, what the fuck are we doing? Senior citizens acting like infants and of all things, ON MY TELEVISION. I can watch Nick at Nite if I needed entertainment like this. Where did this PC crap come from? I mean c'mon...Politically Correct? Show me 1 politician who is truly correct in his or her mind, and to make it even more challenging, an honest one! The children of today and tomorrow don't stand a chance. Television and the advertising they are allowed to put on it will have them all on drugs by age 6 due to confusion and illusion. (2 gays guys in a fucking drug commercial about migraines! C'MON! and that Levi commercial, don't even get me started with that one) It amazes me how these "elected" jerks cannot even police themselves. Seems to me we have enough "Artificial Intelligence" in Washington.  Okay sorry for the rant (ya wouldn't believe what else is on my mind but this isn't really the place)

On to the markets...It's a mess just like everything else in this country. We are in a place where price constantly has to be defended to protect the elite. #RMS is alive and well and if ya don't think so then ya forget to read all the black and white that tells us everywhere we look. We have primary dealers who have to do what the Fed says and that is that. We get to follow an algo program and hope it is human enough in error to lead us to a viable conclusion we can trade. Pick your spots around the Fed dates and your success most likely improves. We are probably going to remain somewhat range bound into Opex. I have no upside or downside targets available as long as we remain in no mans land (or is that supposed to be no persons land, or possibly no lbtgqxyzlmr land). I think between the political algo's Tuesday and FOMC Wednesday with statement on Thursday we can find a direction. I actually prefer up cause I think the criminals behind this wanna screw everyone they can into the end of 2018. By now they should have enough and maybe they have a friend or two they need to get out higher.... Not even gonna post a chart cause it won't matter until this crap is over with in the next couple days.

Edit: Corrected the FOMC schedule to reflect statement comes out Thursday.

Monday, October 29, 2018

Week of October 29, 2018

Are we really that oversold? Don't get me wrong I know there will be counter trend rallies. I am just going to toss up a couple weekly charts.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

Week of October 22, 2018

I had done everything earlier today only to have lost the hours I had put into it due to a power outage. I haven't changed my view all that much and still think we need to hunt the break of the yearly longs which is in that 2690 area. I took a snap shot of the Trading View daily chart and will just post that for now. I will update the other(s) when ambition sets back in.

The downtrend line doesn't mean much here but I had it on my other stuff and in the platform so I placed it here as well. I did move / eliminate a couple things here to clean it up and once I get the other stuff back in order I will update. Interesting week or 2 ahead it seems. How quick we can put a bottom in before a counter trend rally is going to be a bit telling in my view. 

Monday, October 15, 2018

Week of October 15. 2018

Damage is being done and seems likely to continue. We do have to keep in mind the 2018 low to high long is still intact. There are still viable options available on both sides of the tape so all we can do is trade what we see. This week we have the release of the Fed minutes so we can see what the change was in relationship to the "accommodating" terminology, and it is Opex. We should get another relief rally soon enough. The question for me is will it be RYFO or simply corrective to eat up some time. We talked about how messy this has been trying to get to these new highs all of 2018. Keep 'em green, these are the money making opportunities. 

It may look bad technically, but it can get worse on larger time frames. 

Sunday, October 7, 2018

Week of October 8, 2018

I think the team did a good job of finding the confluence of these highs we are currently having issues with. Now the question becomes the low target and whether or not it has actually been met. I have issues with this being the case but will also approach it with caution. We have had the discussions about all the upper that have currently been met and the divergences were pretty clear into these levels. I am hesitant to call a top but I believe we need to start looking at the possibility of at least an intermediate term potential. By now I am sure most have looked over the charts and have a thesis of their own and we can certainly discuss this more as the week goes on. I am only going to post the SPX and RUT daily here but will post what I find time for in the thread.

Monday, October 1, 2018

Oct 1, 2018

I had somewhat of a busy weekend so no real look at charts over the weekend. Will get something up after the close. For now just the SPX and RUT daily charts

Monday, September 24, 2018

FOMC and End of Quarter 3 are here...

FOMC and End of Quarter 3 are here...Is the end of the rally? We know next week brings on the typical 3/4-2% correction with QT on the agenda. Now we move that amount up to $50B in Quarter 4. I am not sure why they would need to quit since they have proven they can drive this market higher even when liquidity retracts. Seems to me it is a ticking time bomb.

As far as the markets are concerned it seems all criteria has been met suggesting we need to be on our toes. Definitely in a mid term cycle that is rare by all accounts.

Apologies to One for not having been posting a RUT.

Monday, September 17, 2018

Week of September 17, 2018

It really doesn't matter how many times I look at it there are prices overhead this thing wants. September 26th marks 8 months since the January high. A nice 8/12 (667 number) again at work. Simply adding the 66 gets us into that 2939 area when added to the January high. We have been looking here. 2968-69 gets us 161.8 off the Feb low to Mar high. Regardless of what FOMC brings the 1st trading day of the month isn't going to let it move higher in the immediate picture. The question is whether or not the correction is done and they use October to get the high anticipated before this market does what it really needs to do. This isn't 2017 and although we have managed higher highs, the chart doesn't look that impressive in having done so.