Monday, December 10, 2018

Week of December 10, 2018

Sentiment on my part has not changed. Beginning with Thursday of this week and into a week from this Friday we have ES Rollover, FOMC, and Quad Opex. Let it do its thing between now and then would be my recommendation.

SPX Monthly

I haven't posted this one for a couple months so thought it was worth the look again. I will post others below in discussion as warranted. 

Wednesday, December 5, 2018

December 5, 2018

Please explain to me why we are taking a day off from trading to celebrate the death of a Potus? Did I miss something or do those who matter already have a day to set aside for this occasion?

Sorry I have been awol a couple days just had a personal matter I had to tend to. I did finally take advantage and get into those Jan 252 puts I had talked about. You cannot convince me this is not going lower. There had been a measured move profit target that fell about 70 cents short on the SPX. I hadn't seen it until Monday night and forgot to mention it earlier yesterday when I posted the comment about how we had gotten into the 50/200dma pre-market. I believe once we get this low taken out yesterday and a dead cat bounce the immediate PT is around 2590 and of course the one below that into the 2520's. I don't know how to label any of it so no attempt at that but I can see us being in a 3rd or C wave off this last high. I am not going to step in front of it. Charts are Weekly SPX and the Daily RUT..and by the way the RUT had the death cross already so if it is leading the charge south....

Sunday, November 25, 2018

Week of November 26, 2018

Friday we had the lowest close during this whole decline off the 2941 top. When I look at the charts I see bearish yet below the 2704 area and wouldn't be surprised to see a run into the 2683 to 2685 range at some point this week or next. It would make sense to get to it and possibly even run up to test the 2734 shorts if it could actually hold the 2603 in the immediate term. There are a few setups that need to be monitored and it seems they are playing games (#RMS) all the way. The market is sick, plain and simple. I still believe we are heading lower and that the 2018 lows give way. As far as immediate lines are concerned there are a couple on the chart below and the other to clear for upside would be the 2603 and 2671 low lines. This is a common channel and would think it gets back tested. Regardless of what it does all I am looking for is the next rip to sell. I am not gonna mess around with a long until there is one that can prove itself beyond a day or 2. Might miss an opportunity to grab a decent RYFO but my interest in that isn't in my playbook. Until we find a bottom (lower) I don't expect a bigger / longer rally.

Monday, November 19, 2018

Thanksgiving Week 2018

Last week we managed to run both sides of the trade off the 2603-2815. I would anticipate with Thanksgiving falling this week the volume would be a little lighter. The last 2 highs came FOMC Statement and the release of the minutes prior to that. Next week we have the minutes coming out for the November statement along with QT that is left on the table for the month of November. As long as we can hold that 2690-2700 range I would think somehow we rally into the middle to end of next week. Obviously below these levels provides opportunity for the other side of the trade. Looking through the charts they seemed fairly neutral so that is my stance until proven otherwise. I don't expect to take and hold a position until Monday / Tuesday can prove a trend. I noticed futures challenged the Friday high in the overnight session and fell off again so it is apparent we need to hold the immediate along with bigger long from 2603 before the upside is proven.

Monday, November 12, 2018

Week of November 12, 2018

We are into monthly Opex week. Reviewing the charts left mixed feelings. On one hand we managed to rally back into another FOMC price causing another flat that has so far failed to give up that resistance area. On the other the structure just seems incomplete and screams another high. If the latter is the case then this is the week to do so. It would appear anything, even if minimal, would suffice. This past Friday seemed to find buyers at the 200 daily moving average so we have that to work with and overhead it seems near 2825-32 seems viable. I will post a weekly chart in the comment section which depicts a rejection at a weekly trend line along with the 2816-20 price that is being defended to this point.

Last week we discussed the idea of how we could find a low this past Friday into Monday (Today) so the ability to hold the Friday low could be significant since it would break down the 200dma. 

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Vote For Imbecile's Day 2018

Today we get to vote and pretend it has any impact whatsoever. Personally I am sick of the shit. I don't see a "United" States of America. I see a united country of corruption and cry babies. Every one of these assholes hides behind he said, she said. I don't see crap being done about the issues that demand attention being debated. I don't see a person in my state running for a seat that deserves my vote. Period, end of story. If this is the best we have to offer cause another politician said so, and if the same is true across this country, what the fuck are we doing? Senior citizens acting like infants and of all things, ON MY TELEVISION. I can watch Nick at Nite if I needed entertainment like this. Where did this PC crap come from? I mean c'mon...Politically Correct? Show me 1 politician who is truly correct in his or her mind, and to make it even more challenging, an honest one! The children of today and tomorrow don't stand a chance. Television and the advertising they are allowed to put on it will have them all on drugs by age 6 due to confusion and illusion. (2 gays guys in a fucking drug commercial about migraines! C'MON! and that Levi commercial, don't even get me started with that one) It amazes me how these "elected" jerks cannot even police themselves. Seems to me we have enough "Artificial Intelligence" in Washington.  Okay sorry for the rant (ya wouldn't believe what else is on my mind but this isn't really the place)

On to the markets...It's a mess just like everything else in this country. We are in a place where price constantly has to be defended to protect the elite. #RMS is alive and well and if ya don't think so then ya forget to read all the black and white that tells us everywhere we look. We have primary dealers who have to do what the Fed says and that is that. We get to follow an algo program and hope it is human enough in error to lead us to a viable conclusion we can trade. Pick your spots around the Fed dates and your success most likely improves. We are probably going to remain somewhat range bound into Opex. I have no upside or downside targets available as long as we remain in no mans land (or is that supposed to be no persons land, or possibly no lbtgqxyzlmr land). I think between the political algo's Tuesday and FOMC Wednesday with statement on Thursday we can find a direction. I actually prefer up cause I think the criminals behind this wanna screw everyone they can into the end of 2018. By now they should have enough and maybe they have a friend or two they need to get out higher.... Not even gonna post a chart cause it won't matter until this crap is over with in the next couple days.

Edit: Corrected the FOMC schedule to reflect statement comes out Thursday.

Monday, October 29, 2018

Week of October 29, 2018

Are we really that oversold? Don't get me wrong I know there will be counter trend rallies. I am just going to toss up a couple weekly charts.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

Week of October 22, 2018

I had done everything earlier today only to have lost the hours I had put into it due to a power outage. I haven't changed my view all that much and still think we need to hunt the break of the yearly longs which is in that 2690 area. I took a snap shot of the Trading View daily chart and will just post that for now. I will update the other(s) when ambition sets back in.

The downtrend line doesn't mean much here but I had it on my other stuff and in the platform so I placed it here as well. I did move / eliminate a couple things here to clean it up and once I get the other stuff back in order I will update. Interesting week or 2 ahead it seems. How quick we can put a bottom in before a counter trend rally is going to be a bit telling in my view. 

Monday, October 15, 2018

Week of October 15. 2018

Damage is being done and seems likely to continue. We do have to keep in mind the 2018 low to high long is still intact. There are still viable options available on both sides of the tape so all we can do is trade what we see. This week we have the release of the Fed minutes so we can see what the change was in relationship to the "accommodating" terminology, and it is Opex. We should get another relief rally soon enough. The question for me is will it be RYFO or simply corrective to eat up some time. We talked about how messy this has been trying to get to these new highs all of 2018. Keep 'em green, these are the money making opportunities. 

It may look bad technically, but it can get worse on larger time frames. 

Sunday, October 7, 2018

Week of October 8, 2018

I think the team did a good job of finding the confluence of these highs we are currently having issues with. Now the question becomes the low target and whether or not it has actually been met. I have issues with this being the case but will also approach it with caution. We have had the discussions about all the upper that have currently been met and the divergences were pretty clear into these levels. I am hesitant to call a top but I believe we need to start looking at the possibility of at least an intermediate term potential. By now I am sure most have looked over the charts and have a thesis of their own and we can certainly discuss this more as the week goes on. I am only going to post the SPX and RUT daily here but will post what I find time for in the thread.