Monday, March 12, 2018

March 12, 2018

As a trader nothing frustrates me more than having something completely right then bailing leaving capital on the table. This past Friday was one one of these instances though when they worked through the area I wanted to get short at I had told myself this market was going out at the close on the highs. Instead at the next level around 2780 I decided adding to shorts was better even though I saw a target of 2807ish right after that. Needless to say I got stopped out and ended up giving back on some of the calls I sold earlier in the day. Stupidity excellently executed on my behalf. I always bail early on calls because for some reason I find it difficult to give money back when trading to the upside. I see and talk about the higher PT's ...eh, enough said.

The last time we were trading in this area it only took about 8 or 9 days to set the current ATH. In other words once we clear above the 2807ish area there isn't anything to stop what little resistance we have at the gap of 2822 and 2853. Both of these offer a little up to and in between these levels. We are entering the 3rd and 4th weeks of the month with both Quad Opex and FOMC fast approaching. 2732 almost appears to be the line in the sand downside at this juncture.

The timing at Opex could become a big deal as we find treasuries maturing at mid month and the end of each month. Watching these time frames as the Fed is unloading could help going forward. We have about 160B up for auction the next couple of days, perhaps a leading indicator...

Purple dashed line at the open this past Friday comes off the election low...(Trump line)

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