Monday, January 8, 2018

January 8, 2018

2018 started off with a nice gap and go and should at least see a little continuation this week though I think upside is finally becoming limited. The problem with a high coming in here is that it is only January. This is not a time to look for anything more than temporary. There is still time to get a bit of a reprieve and still retest it with Opex and the start of earnings.

I am still in the bearish camp but am expecting a bit of whipsaw over the next few weeks. This high, or at least what I think is going to be a high, is just coming at an odd time. Going forward I can't imagine how the new Tax Bill isn't going to create a little commotion. My belief is the best way to raise some capital will be to grudgingly convince share holders it is time to take a little profit for re-investment purposes during 2018. This move that is occurring appears to be setting up such a correction in my opinion. This is by no means the end of the bull the way I see it unfolding but nothing about this nearly 9 year run has been normal. The Fed and their little list of dealers have specific ideas and have yet to relinquish.

This SPX daily chart has a couple upper lines on it with prices I think could and need to be hit this week. I am just hoping the 2766 holds here or that next little line I put above probably comes into play sooner rather than later. Even with a pull back the open last Tuesday provides some channel support down around 2700 now and a retest of the year end RTH close would most likely be next and provide opportunity in the short term for bulls. No matter what, I cannot see how we don't make a higher high into the end of Feb or mid March now and hope it wouldn't run into May without at least a steeper correction than that of the 2550's-2600


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