Wednesday, January 25, 2017

January 25, 2017

New POTUS, new ATH

I had been looking for the chop into Opex but had hoped once over so would this run be. All along it looked like we needed that higher high and now we have it. My thought is SPY needs something higher than that December one ahead of the dividend.

I tossed a couple prices up on the green line but my nervousness doesn't kick in until a break of 2305.86. I have been shorting into all of this gradually and this is where my stop is. I am willing to suffer a little pain with the shorts if need be. I personally think the market is ahead of itself at the moment and that we have just left too much virgin shit below to maintain this. I know there are other thinly traded areas 10% lower but don't believe this is a level that can maintain that.

I am using a basic 30 minute chart for now cause there just isn't much sense in staring at more with the games being played of late. Around 2277-78 creates issues if it breaks below that level. The same applies above it.

Awhile back I mentioned we had to break that green dashed and would most likely have to retest it. We are at that crucial juncture. I could handle a slight pierce of that upper price line I have but beyond that ... My eyes seem to want to focus more on where it has to come back to lower price levels rather than on the possibility of a breakout

Sunday, January 8, 2017

January 9, 2017



This is what I said at the beginning of 2016 (over on Permabear’s blog). Apparently I forgot I was still bullish:
I am thinking we retest the February 2014 low by March. From there I wouldn't write off a possible higher high for targets sought in 2015 (2150,2173, and 2214 with an extreme nearer 2250). Year end closes around the January 2014 highs near 1850 if I can remain optimistic. (In error I had written 2013 highs in December though I was targeting the 1850.84 high that was made in January 2014)
I was looking for those higher targets earlier in the year rather than the last 4 months to achieve those price levels. I thought we would correct deeply going into year end and that obviously didn’t happen. 

This year I am not calling any close to end 2017. Instead I am merely looking to take out the low 
made in 2016 at 1810. On my monthly chart I had laid out a possible 2243-2360 topping scenario. Unfortunately I lost that chart with my new version of Hubb. I will post the one that I think was last updated in Oct or Nov. 

For now I think the close this past Friday added a little fuel for something a bit higher. I was looking for chop into January Opex and this suffices. I think it is very possible we make a higher high this week and have the ability to retest it with the next FOMC. If we break above 2306 I will have to evaluate things closer. Even after the first correction that comes we should be able to make another run. Even with all the bullshit back in 2007 we still managed a corrective run at that high. For now it is about exercising patience. I am currently only long GDX with March call options at 20 and 24 strikes and have been accumulating March 200 SPY puts along the way. I haven’t scalped or traded a long since I closed my October buy at 2214.

The immediate bearish line is approaching rapidly so those who think we are going to continue to scream upwards are in danger (my opinion).
I mentioned we had to take out the green line. Wednesday we tested it twice and bounced off it. Thursday we managed to break it and still bounced to close slightly above it. I personally think we need a slightly higher high. I was hoping it would be today (Friday) and have the true correction begin. The stamp for the "legacy" may not let this happen until next week which coincides with his last day in office and Opex