Tuesday, March 21, 2017

March 22, 2017

It's still about the Fed. I had mentioned the previous lows made after the February 1st FOMC and the line coming off them. Yesterday (Monday) we broke it and traded under it although it was a relatively quiet session. Today we opened at the top of that line (back test) and fell off over 1%! Something that didn't look as though it could ever happen again.

Although it can take longer than bears may have patience for it has been my experience from watching the Fed crap that when it breaks down it will typically hunt the last FOMC price whether it be a high or low. For me this means we should test either the 1/26 high or the 12/13/2016 high. I kept the line intact on the chart off these highs and it comes across in the 2333ish area. It's still all about patience.

I know the chart is a little busy but I want to point out the dashed blue line we back tested today and that black line at the bottom of today's candle. Other lines are there because the Fed and it's partners in crime can decide where we stop whenever they want.

I didn't count trading days but just off a calendar day view the run up from the November low to the March 1st high was basically 315 in 120 or roughly 2.625/per day. The move is also similar in price as that of the Oct 2014 low to the May 2015 high. That one of course ate up a little more time than this. The other bullish move made was Nov 2012-May 2013 that was roughly 345. This extra 30 is where the 886+1552 or possible + 1576 could come into play. The question around this would be when the possibility comes. Even if you look back to the Sept high we came a long ways in about half the time it should have taken.The December high comes into play just before the release of minutes in April....
The shaded box needs to trade..at some point

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