Monday, February 6, 2017

February 6, 2017

We approach this week celebrating 1 year off the February 2016 low. This has been one helluva sustained rally to this point. If not mistaking today marks the 250th trading day off that low and a full 360 (2016 was leap year so maybe 361?). As I look back at the lines I trust most it appears we have to tag the upper green one more time. Today that is pretty much at that 45 degree price level at 2305.86. 500 above the February 2016 low points at 2310 though it doesn't have to get there and will take a break above the other level. This week should mark a turn and by looking back at 2016 (and years prior for the most part) we are due to make a low at some point in the first couple weeks of March.

I realize it isn't easy being a bear in this market but we are well past the point of expecting some kind of correction. I can't imagine it is easy for anybody to label this either. Technical's all point to this yet we all know these levels can deteriorate for longer than some can stay liquid in this Fed driven market. My hope is there is a price just a touch higher that has all the sell orders waiting to be filled. 10% minimum from here seems likely and it could be quick. Line in the sand coincides with the November low.

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