Monday, December 25, 2017

Last week of 2017

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all!

I have been working on a couple weekly charts and found a little time to update them. This first is a little messy due to the number of lines I have so my apologies. Easier to look at if you open in a new window. The first one goes back to March 2009 but I only made visible to the Oct 2011 low for ease.

This chart only dates back to around the low in February 2014. I used this mark cause it is what made me want to hunt the 2213.91 that had been on the table long before that. Notice the pennies in difference at the 2733 price I had mentioned in the past few weeks on both charts for this week or possibly into the first week of January. IF we are going to tag it I believe it will be one of these 2 weeks. The other possibility higher is around 2704 as stated in chart above. The lowest I could find on the week for a bullish case is 2651.38 so if that gets taken out....

I will update this when I look at it again after I have my Christmas Dinner if I think of something

Sunday, December 17, 2017

We continue to defy gravity. Futures (ES) this morning suggest something similar to what I said last week with a tag of 2695- 2697 possible today. This however doesn't appear to be right. My belief for now is that the original bullish line has been changed. We appear to be chasing the more bullish black dashed line off the chart. This line exists off the 2657.74 high and that of the 2665.19 line a couple days later. I have decided the November 7th high can be incorporated into either of these 2 numbers. If that is correct a line can be drawn into the week of January 8th which would bring 2733ish into play. This would suffice due to the 80/20 rule that may come into play once again. It doesn't have to go this high and could die at any time but like my little update I had put under the chart in the last post this recent low at 2652 was used as a launching point for higher highs. It doesn't have to hit 2720 here either as another tag (or 2) of the line would suffice. It peaks around 2712 on December 20th (this Wednesday and near 2700-2704 today). A guessing game now for those of us bearish without a true signal. ( I will continue to guess!)

Monday, December 4, 2017

December 4, 2017

We continue to climb to higher highs. If ya ask me this thing is outta control. I try to stay neutral most of the time but I can honestly say I am bearish is hell. Maybe I have to wait til year end to get this right. I haven't a clue at this point. Breach of that 2654ish price said it was a buy but I don't have faith in much higher. It is what it is and requires more patience than I apparently have. Ahead of the Fed and with this tax bill crap I am merely going to be a bit more cautious.

Missed the upper line today but I fully expect to tag it again. This could drop to nearly 2650 and have a decent run back to a new high. Time enough to get a new high, pull back and retest it before the year ends. Looks like it could play out like late 2015 into early 2016?

Sunday, November 19, 2017

November 20, 2017

I am tossing this up just to get something new up. Weekend got pretty busy on me so I haven't really had a chance to examine things more closely. I will do that during the week. For now all I know is the 2597.02 was pretty much the 161.8 of the November 2016 low and March 1st high. My concern is this thing trying to form a top into year end until we see something lower with enthusiasm. I did notice the put / call ratio is climbing in the indexes and very relaxed in the VIX so perhaps this comes to fruition. This is a short week so I will make sure to get something else up after Turkey Day. Glad to be back and have some time in here and to trade a with a little more regularity.

I put a couple price labels (+/- 4 to 8) on the chart above for bullish cases. The blue trend lines are the ones to watch for over the next 3 weeks. The upper red trend line is the most bullish I have and you can see it does run up and tag the line in the sand for bears. Pretty much strictly based on FOMC shit

Monday, September 4, 2017

September 5, 2017

I want to start out by apologizing for my lack of attention here. I have been extremely busy and will continue to be so through at least September. This is going to be a tough month because I will be on the road up in Breckenridge most of September.

As far as the market goes I am still expecting that higher high this month or next. My target is 2513-2531. We are currently at a tough spot but it was the bulls in control last week and I think it will continue into FOMC this month. We left a little shooting star up there on Friday but I don't really believe we will leave any gaps in this territory so even if we start out on the bearish side I wouldn't expect it to continue for long (perhaps this gets it started LOL). Anyway I closed out my September position the week before last at pretty much break even. I sold TLT for a decent profit so all in all I can't complain other than the lack of trading and trading time I have had.

That's it for now and I promise to try to check in as time warrants. Good luck and keep 'em green!

Tossing up a Dow weekly just cause it isn't something I watch a lot but had some stuff drawn that has all  occurred to this point. It exceeded my red line but the blue has held so far. 

Sunday, June 4, 2017

June 5, 2015

It has been tough to find the time I need to do any trading. That being said it appears some opening bells could be available in the near future. My apologies for not being available to give my stupid opinions. Nonetheless I have a moment so I am gonna.

None of it looks easy and I haven't a clue where we will find the eventual top to this bull run. There are a couple price points of interest to me right now and I plan to get a short in very soon. 2449-2470 hold my interest and the latter would probably coincide with the June rollover or shortly thereafter.

This run since the election is just nuts and so is all the bullshit that has followed. Those who are close to me know I have talked about the pussification of America for quite awhile now. Never in my life have I seen such crap from the media as I have been witness to over the past 4-5 months. It is crazy we can't let the most powerful person in our country try to do the job he was elected to do. My opinion of the non-stop crap is that they are merely trying to make us all forget the other bullshit that came before. I mean c'mon!?..did the Russians vote in our country? I won't even get into Bengazi or Bin Laden. Just pisses me off too much to see this crap day in and day out. For the record I hate both parties so this isn't political for me as far as Dem vs Rep. For me it's been 40 years of pricks and broken promises. It hasn't been about the American citizen in a very long's about the 1%. Accept it and move on

Anyway I plan to get a short position started this week. Time being a factor I will probably get into Sept 220's to start. I am expecting at least a 10% haircut soon.

Sunday, April 23, 2017

April 24,2017

Wow a third of the way through 2017 already!

I have been too busy to keep up on news events and the like. All I see is that higher high coming and with what futures have done this evening it has to be completely on the table (doesn't look like a bull trap at this point). The SPX doesn't have to do much more than hold the 2363-2366 area to stay above the down trend line so with FOMC in a week and a half ya may as well hold on.

They played around all week trying to allow it to fail but there just aren't any interested sellers the way I see it. Still reminds me much of the Nov 2012-May 2013 run as I had mentioned before. I am currently flat any option trades. Still hold ABX and NEM in the other account but as far as jumping into something now it will be later in the week before I make that decision and have time to actually study something. Friday I had gotten in with 9 minutes left in the day and considered grabbing some June shorts but didn't like the looks of the line it was holding off the  Dec FOMC high and that Jan 26th high just prior to the Feb FOMC. Right now it looks like I made the right choice.

Stay safe and be smart on the bearish side is all I have for now. Weather appears to be allowing me some time later in the week. Before that I gotta get done what I can. Keep 'em Green!

As usual enough damage has been done over time to allow a true divergence to set itself up. As they say.............Wait for it..........

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

March 22, 2017

It's still about the Fed. I had mentioned the previous lows made after the February 1st FOMC and the line coming off them. Yesterday (Monday) we broke it and traded under it although it was a relatively quiet session. Today we opened at the top of that line (back test) and fell off over 1%! Something that didn't look as though it could ever happen again.

Although it can take longer than bears may have patience for it has been my experience from watching the Fed crap that when it breaks down it will typically hunt the last FOMC price whether it be a high or low. For me this means we should test either the 1/26 high or the 12/13/2016 high. I kept the line intact on the chart off these highs and it comes across in the 2333ish area. It's still all about patience.

I know the chart is a little busy but I want to point out the dashed blue line we back tested today and that black line at the bottom of today's candle. Other lines are there because the Fed and it's partners in crime can decide where we stop whenever they want.

I didn't count trading days but just off a calendar day view the run up from the November low to the March 1st high was basically 315 in 120 or roughly 2.625/per day. The move is also similar in price as that of the Oct 2014 low to the May 2015 high. That one of course ate up a little more time than this. The other bullish move made was Nov 2012-May 2013 that was roughly 345. This extra 30 is where the 886+1552 or possible + 1576 could come into play. The question around this would be when the possibility comes. Even if you look back to the Sept high we came a long ways in about half the time it should have taken.The December high comes into play just before the release of minutes in April....
The shaded box needs to some point

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

March 15, 2017 FOMC

Interesting little break (but save) off the last 2 FOMC lows today. A break lower than this should send us into the 2330ish area which would be the line off the December 13 and Jan 26 highs. The March 1st high at 2401 is a pretty good fit here but nothing from a TA appearance allows for it to look finished. So far it is just another minimal pull back eating up more time than price. From a timing stance and looking back this rally reminds me much of the Nov 2012 low that rallied into May of 2013. This one is a couple weeks ahead of that so the fit puts it right into the May 1st FOMC. Sell in May and ....?

Downside doesn't appear to be done here either and since we are in a seasonal expiration this week I think we should be able to trust this since SPY dividend will cause it to take a hit on Friday. Not sure the higher gap gets filled but I would expect the 2383 at some point. I think patience is in order downside til 2285 is gone.

Friday, March 3, 2017

March 3, 2017

Just gonna toss this up in a post and see if it sticks


High made in 2000 was earlier than the S&P's so the red line off the July and October highs in 2007 might work here   

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

February 22, 2017

For some odd reason I am not able to post a chart below. It keeps telling me I have to sign in even though I am. Might be a firewall/cookie issue?

So here is a new post here just to show what I am seeing. This is a weekly chart so a bit easier to see the lines. I put a couple other levels above and am not calling a top here. I am just thinking it needs a breather very soon at a minimum.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

February 21, 2017

Time is short so just a quick weekly chart for now. Minutes released on Wednesday and this was a secondary week for a high I ignored long ago. At this juncture and these levels I am not so sure it can't repeat 2015. 2360 was my next target and what I had hoped was an ultimate high but the ability to blow through 2200 and 2250 without pause (or trading) makes me wonder. Issues at 2401 if not sooner.

Monday, February 6, 2017

February 6, 2017

We approach this week celebrating 1 year off the February 2016 low. This has been one helluva sustained rally to this point. If not mistaking today marks the 250th trading day off that low and a full 360 (2016 was leap year so maybe 361?). As I look back at the lines I trust most it appears we have to tag the upper green one more time. Today that is pretty much at that 45 degree price level at 2305.86. 500 above the February 2016 low points at 2310 though it doesn't have to get there and will take a break above the other level. This week should mark a turn and by looking back at 2016 (and years prior for the most part) we are due to make a low at some point in the first couple weeks of March.

I realize it isn't easy being a bear in this market but we are well past the point of expecting some kind of correction. I can't imagine it is easy for anybody to label this either. Technical's all point to this yet we all know these levels can deteriorate for longer than some can stay liquid in this Fed driven market. My hope is there is a price just a touch higher that has all the sell orders waiting to be filled. 10% minimum from here seems likely and it could be quick. Line in the sand coincides with the November low.

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

January 25, 2017

New POTUS, new ATH

I had been looking for the chop into Opex but had hoped once over so would this run be. All along it looked like we needed that higher high and now we have it. My thought is SPY needs something higher than that December one ahead of the dividend.

I tossed a couple prices up on the green line but my nervousness doesn't kick in until a break of 2305.86. I have been shorting into all of this gradually and this is where my stop is. I am willing to suffer a little pain with the shorts if need be. I personally think the market is ahead of itself at the moment and that we have just left too much virgin shit below to maintain this. I know there are other thinly traded areas 10% lower but don't believe this is a level that can maintain that.

I am using a basic 30 minute chart for now cause there just isn't much sense in staring at more with the games being played of late. Around 2277-78 creates issues if it breaks below that level. The same applies above it.

Awhile back I mentioned we had to break that green dashed and would most likely have to retest it. We are at that crucial juncture. I could handle a slight pierce of that upper price line I have but beyond that ... My eyes seem to want to focus more on where it has to come back to lower price levels rather than on the possibility of a breakout

Sunday, January 8, 2017

January 9, 2017

This is what I said at the beginning of 2016 (over on Permabear’s blog). Apparently I forgot I was still bullish:
I am thinking we retest the February 2014 low by March. From there I wouldn't write off a possible higher high for targets sought in 2015 (2150,2173, and 2214 with an extreme nearer 2250). Year end closes around the January 2014 highs near 1850 if I can remain optimistic. (In error I had written 2013 highs in December though I was targeting the 1850.84 high that was made in January 2014)
I was looking for those higher targets earlier in the year rather than the last 4 months to achieve those price levels. I thought we would correct deeply going into year end and that obviously didn’t happen. 

This year I am not calling any close to end 2017. Instead I am merely looking to take out the low 
made in 2016 at 1810. On my monthly chart I had laid out a possible 2243-2360 topping scenario. Unfortunately I lost that chart with my new version of Hubb. I will post the one that I think was last updated in Oct or Nov. 

For now I think the close this past Friday added a little fuel for something a bit higher. I was looking for chop into January Opex and this suffices. I think it is very possible we make a higher high this week and have the ability to retest it with the next FOMC. If we break above 2306 I will have to evaluate things closer. Even after the first correction that comes we should be able to make another run. Even with all the bullshit back in 2007 we still managed a corrective run at that high. For now it is about exercising patience. I am currently only long GDX with March call options at 20 and 24 strikes and have been accumulating March 200 SPY puts along the way. I haven’t scalped or traded a long since I closed my October buy at 2214.

The immediate bearish line is approaching rapidly so those who think we are going to continue to scream upwards are in danger (my opinion).
I mentioned we had to take out the green line. Wednesday we tested it twice and bounced off it. Thursday we managed to break it and still bounced to close slightly above it. I personally think we need a slightly higher high. I was hoping it would be today (Friday) and have the true correction begin. The stamp for the "legacy" may not let this happen until next week which coincides with his last day in office and Opex