Wednesday, December 21, 2016

December 21/28, 2016

I wasn't going to do a new post but since I had put up the new chart I thought I would share a little more with a brief update.
Last year at this time I was full blown bearish. As of now I am not although all my positions indicate otherwise. As I look at the price I really want to be but it seems just a tad early yet. We still have to break down and retest without making a higher high first. At the moment it may appear we did but it hasn't gone deep enough in my view for that insurance.
Price got beyond a couple of my targets by a bit but it isn't a deterrent because I always thought the market had to set a future move. As I look back to the February low I had never thought it went low enough so I went back and saw I was looking from 1750-1790 somewhere back then. If it had tagged 1788 based on the weekly line I had then this 2277.53 is a very nice fit. No matter what happens here we have to expect a bounce. How long and how much momentum that has will provide the best trade in my opinion. The last 3 February's have provided lows to trade, will we make it a 4th?

Gotta take out the green dashed next

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Final FOMC for 2016

Today we have our final FOMC announcement for our current administration. The next isn't scheduled until after the Trump inauguration (Jan 31-Feb 1).

It seems apparent the Fed had a price target they had to chase into the announcement today. I am impressed at how far they took this considering price levels below that were totally ignored. I did the math for the 45 degree price off the February low and put it on the chart. I also made a note of the measured move off the June low (a ZZ?) Time right now also puts us within about a day of the 4 month move from April to August and that line is on the chart as well. 2214 and 2243 barely caused a hiccup much like 2250 so this has to be about a Fed Funds target price we are aiming for. The next FOMC line below is 2180.


Sunday, December 4, 2016

December 4, 2016

Well it has taken some time but they finally got to the 2214 target that has been anticipated.

Now the looming question is whether or not this was the finale. I believe we are in for a correction but for now won't anticipate much until after the December FOMC a week from Wednesday. I believe if we correct into that meeting the bounce that may come off it could be short lived. Right now I think we have to test something into the 2163-2180 range.

I hope to have a little time for the blog headed into the holidays so I am not going to get ahead of myself at the moment. Right now I think December is setting up to be very interesting.

After the move yesterday I can see this puncturing my next objective. Trying to talk me into no resistance and free air at these levels isn't going to work. 2250 give or take will  provide plenty. That dashed black line at the top of the chart that has been there forever was always the probability. Managed to get near my next price about a week earlier than anticipated. Get above that and I will believe the bull keeps charging.