As we head into our next FOMC rate decision it appears to me this was all set up during the January meeting. I haven't drawn the lines exact but the green dashed are the reference. The high and the low on January 27th have both been in play on one side or the other of that candle. Brexit tossed a wrench into things on both sides. Anyway you can draw a line off the 1/27 high then the 3/10 low (Nailed that one) and off the low of 1/27 and the low 6/16 to get an idea of why I look at FOMC the way I do. I believe one of these lines gets tagged even if we make a higher high with FOMC.
The 3 arrows near the top of the chart indicate the last 2 FOMC highs the week prior (and I put one on last Wednesday's cause I give it great odds of holding). If this one plays out the same way without a higher high we should be looking at a low headed into the release of the minutes in August. Our month of July opened around 2099 which is a well visited FOMC price. I think it takes a close above 2107-2108 to top the highest monthly close and at this point I am actually okay with that cause there should be a higher price later on.
Prices on the chart are FOMC highs and lows. I won't get more bearish than the 2099-2100 line til it is broke and I have already stated I expect 2081 at a minimum. If we do make a higher high 2200 should be pretty easy headed into August Opex