Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Q2 2016 Ending

Higher my ass
(but one man's opinion)

I am not going to get carried away with anything. Blame it all on Brexit if ya want. I am posting a weekly chart back to the 2009 low. I started playing around with speed and 1/3's and while doing so I found similar measured moves both in time and price. Price is the hardest to get right as we all know. There is just a bit too much virgin space below for me. I can tell  you while I was calculating everything I had available in my little pea brain I had no issues finding Yikes 1950 next week.

Be patient.

Saturday, June 18, 2016

6-18-16

Getting about time to throw up a new thread (or was that "throw-up on my new threads"?).

Nothing earth shattering here, just going to post a weekly chart which looks to me to be pretty bearish.  I've mentioned many times I have no problem with the idea that we could go much, much higher after a correction here, or we could actually be in a longer term bear market, but no way to know until we take out a few levels.  The first one I think is nearly a given is the .382 retracement at around SPX 2000.  The next one, should the moves since the April high turn out to be an expanded flat and a C-wave down equalling 1.618 of wave A would be right around 1980.  Below that we have the .618 retracement of the leg up since February at ~1930.  It would take a convincing break below that to make me think the bullish case is finally off the table as I have my doubts that a blow off top would come after that much weakness, but all that remains to be seen and is a ways off at this point.




Enjoy your summer!

Sunday, June 12, 2016

June 13, 2016 - FOMC Week

Not gonna get carried away. Obviously the May low around 2026 is where the truth lies. For now we have support at the other FOMC highs of 2056 (gap area support the market avoids much like my hated 1909) and 2076. There is a steeper channel we have yet to break the lower end of. Perhaps that is the start of something more for downside.

If time allows ahead of Wednesday's FOMC announcement I will try to get something new up or at least update the chart with a blurb since I am leaving plenty of room.


Saturday, June 4, 2016

June 2016 here we come...

I am going to try to take an approach to both sides of this thing. April tossed a bit of a curve ball at me with the high on the 20th. This was a week ahead of FOMC which isn't the norm, or at least hadn't been. Toss this one out and highs have pretty much been the first week of the month since November. Having said this we haven't made a lower monthly low since February and probably more importantly March since the one in February was bullshit (My opinion). May was both higher and lower during the month (off the first week not above April) leading us into this last high so for now I consider it neutral.

I know we are a week and a half away from the June FOMC but here we sit at the same levels we have been enduring in what seems forever when it comes to the Fed crap. Since the end of QE3 we have done nothing but stay in the range of 1810.10-2134.72 with the majority of this above 2020.

For now it seems like both bulls and bears are up against the wall yet again. If we break above the line I have residing over the current highs it most likely hunts the next one. Due to the fact we never took out the February 2014 low at 1738 there are still measured moves that point higher. 2154, 2173, 2214 and then the 2243. Since the low in March of 2009 the market has been able to sustain 5 points per week with the touch of 1810 in February as close as we have come to breaking down further.

Yikes has been adamant about his study and nothing on the chart can provide an argument against it without a higher high. To me it seems the pressure is on the bulls (FED) here. My bias kicks in a little here but it is always nice to know when it is wrong. I am not going to push bearishness on anyone because much like a year ago it is still about patience. I drew a few lines on the chart depicting what I see. The red uptrend arrow line on the lower portion is where bulls lose complete control in my humble opinion. If you look close enough you will see where it lies within the boundaries of Yikes study come the first week of July. It basically sits around my hated 1909 level.

The most bullish line I have going forward is off the September 2015 FOMC high and the December 2015 FOMC high (days of not closes after). This is not a call but a move above last May brings it into play. As luck would have it right now the current line we are trading on above nearly equals the November high at the June announcement. Something has to give soon.....The floor isn't far below. FWIW in the last post I mentioned the ability to hold 2105 on the week being important for the bears so either we jump above with gusto or ready the buckets. Just be patient!