Saturday, February 27, 2016

February 27, 2016

I am going to attempt a very neutral view going into a new month to the best of my ability. I am a line guy as most of you know. I also try to look forward more often than not. The double bottom bothered me since it stopped short in my view (on news of course). When I looked at the lines off the highs and lows in November and December I noticed both highs the beginning of those months off the next lower high pointed right at it.

Bullish view: There are a couple price points of importance in the upcoming week. 1st is the ability to hold the 1922 level on Monday and into Tuesday. More importantly is the gap fill from 2/12. Line in the sand is probably 1886 for a close on the week. As long as these levels hold this thing could have the potential for a push ranging from 1978-2044 (Dec 31 gap fill). January 5th fits the best. This is all I can give ya and it would require another FOMC high.

Bearish view: If bears protect this 1963 high and take out the prices mentioned the bulls have to protect this will probably sell off into the week of March 7th. The declines have been in the 8-9 day range since the November high aside from the FOMC December low bullshit. These were all good for at least 90 downside. Bears could actually get a move that would test the channel off the December 29 and February 1st high line. The speed bump will come around that gap fill February 12th.

The way I see it there are 2 lines of importance to go with the 1963 high. The first would allow for a high Tuesday or Wednesday near the 1972 pivot. This would equate to a test of the ES high made after hours on Thursday. The others are a confluence off the December and January FOMC highs and lows. These point to a low into FOMC around 1760. I have to draw this chart yet and will post it as soon as I do.


Still another LH and LL AND Lower Close on the Monthly. Ignore the notes later on cause this thing could go down for another year yet. Too early but most important price could be in the 1010 area

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

2-23-16

In the interest of expediency, I'm going to through up a quick post here so we can start a new thread.

No deep analysis here, just one of my favorite charts.  This is a chart of the NYSE advancers that has moving averages laid over it (raw numbers are invisible).  I like this because it really shows the cycling of the market- how it ebbs and flows as it moves price around.  Hopefully you find it useful.

Monday, February 15, 2016

February 16, 2016

If you wouldn't have made a lower low maybe I could be on board. I realize the move in futures since the close Friday but I am not shook up. I think I have made it clear where I change my mind.

Release of the FOMC Minutes for January on Wednesday and Opex Friday. This could make for a fun week.

I saw the debate going on about the next socialist leader of our country. A bit odd that Nast made the Jack Ass and Elephant symbolic and now ya have the "trump" card about Aesop's fable in the way of the Ass in the Lions skin. Choices are easy 1) an Ass 2) an aloof Ass 3) a Cross dressing Ass


Friday, February 12, 2016

What does Cupid hold?

This will be short but while I am thinking about it: Happy Valentine's Day to all.

I just wanted to show the simplicity of these measured moves and how they have transformed since the initial decline in late December. Take from it what you want but know they exist. Pure speculation at this point but you know where I have been looking and now it could change on the breach of that price. Patience

Hourly Chart and no noise but identical measured moves so far

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

February 10, 2016

I am just going to toss something up quick here to use for the rest of the week. This will be short and sweet and I want to share with you why I think February 2014 was / is so important.
This low was made "256" weeks off the March 2009 low. Since that 1737.92 low it took an additional 67 weeks to make the May 2015 high.
256 / 67= "3.82". Now if you figure the May high rounded at 324 weeks and take 1/3 of it you will find a date landing into the 7 year anniversary at 108 weeks off that February 2014 low. This coincides nicely with an SJ 40-42 week cycle low off that May high as well. There is a margin of error to consider here but that is what makes 1737.92 important.

As an additional note please subtract the late August high from that February 2014 low if ya wanna see why Gann and his 8's work (Within a given window considering the extra time involved)

Saturday, February 6, 2016

February 6, 2016

I want to start by saying although I am bearish and have been since the end of December it doesn't mean the bull is dead yet. It presently appears that way but the abyss is much further down. The little red box on the chart is all I was looking for and the longer it takes the higher that blue dashed line climbs. It can drop below this and all that matters is it regains it.

I have talked about that February 2014 low often enough in the past but it all comes from the March 2009 low in the 1746 area. Back in September of 2013 we tagged the 1730 area and the only retest of this was done at the beginning of February 2014. This was basically the last breakout that hasn't been retested to date. I believe breakouts need to be retested to be true. Keep in mind we have only briefly made an attempt to test the October 2007 high back in June of 2013.

By now you all know I am not a fundamentalist when it comes to the market. I leave that to those of you with a wealth of knowledge beyond my own. From a technical stance I really only concentrate what is in front of me at the present. None of us knows what the future holds in this game they call a stock market.

Before we even made the 1812 low I pointed out I expected 1929 to trade with FOMC and that a Monday high afterwards was most the most likely scenario. Thus far that has panned out. There were higher targets than the 1947 but alas they are still up there and talked about it having to regain that 1951 area for confirmation of anything to get higher. I tried to get long with FOMC and they tossed me a huge curve ball that flipped me the day of the announcement. In hindsight had I just held on to the idea of the Monday high... I claimed I wouldn't be interested in the bounce aside from a scalp or 2 until it cleared 1951 so no harm no foul.

For the week I can see a range from 1828 to as high as 1920 but the latter could well hold until the following week after President's Day and probably wouldn't be as high if it does. That same week is the next release of the January FOMC minutes the 17th. In a Fed driven market you still have this to deal with and for now you all know I am looking at the red box until it is wrong. This could be 2 weeks after the March FOMC and all I wanted was by or in March. The top that led into the May 2015 looks unorthodox to say the least but perhaps the possibility of Central Bank manipulation and the Fed (sarc) is why. I personally find it odd that a large part of this correction started at the end of CB's trading the "free" market into the end of December.

"Bear" in mind the red lines are not set in stone (yet). Red box is basically from the 1812 low down to 1780 if it decides it wants a March low near the end of the month.