Friday, August 12, 2016

8-13-16 (dog days... )

I gots dem low-volume-summa-time bluuuues....

Need I really say more?  I've no more crystal ball than anyone else here, but we are certainly overbought and at what could be looked at as a complete EW 5-count up since Brexit.  

Volume has been steadily dropping since February, and an even more pronounced decline since the late June low (which in 3rd waves should be getting stronger), so there's that to scratch your head over too.  The only way I can see that this might be bearish beyond a refresher-pullback would be if this is some kind of giant B wave of a multi-year expanded flat.  The volume thing would be consistent with that, but I have no more than coin flip odds on the idea.

VIX is currently in a tube only about 2.3 points wide, so somethings gotta give.

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

August 3, 2016

August is on us...

Well so far we have the long anticipated higher highs. This past FOMC is nowhere near its norm so far for either direction. The only thing close was the fact we got a Monday high after the announcement. 6 months off the February 1st high that followed the low preceding the January. The fact we have rallied for 6 months straight (120ish Trading days) is most likely the issue with upside. In 2014 we rallied with smallish corrections right into September's FOMC. I think we can expect the same here and maybe a little more if it wants the October line

Previously I talked about whipsaw but in all honesty I didn't expect it in such a tight range. I am sure the MM's had reason to keep it propped for some kind of future endeavor. As it stands now it is becoming more and more likely we are looking at a fall high. A year later than was previously targeted but it is what it is.

The FOMC high was 366 to the penny off the January 20th low. Today we also hit the top of the channel that I believe originated back at the January FOMC. Take this low out today and the next likely would be the bottom of that channel, and so on...

I think we did something similar to this back in 2013. I don't know how much weakness is in front of us so where to BTFD is really the only question I have going forward. Remember the 2120 gaps and the previous FOMC prices as a guide. Be smart on both ends of this tape is my best advice at the present time.