Sunday, March 20, 2016

March 20, 2016

Short and sweet on this agenda. I think most are in the same frame of mind now so merely put a couple notes on the chart. It seems imminent but what the hell do I know. Hope to find more time mid to end of the week. Yikes and Airyk can feel free to amend or put something new up any time their heart desires.

Sunday, March 13, 2016

March FOMC Week

I cannot find a reason to get into anything analytic when it comes to this week. Unless this time is truly different show me when we haven't arrived at some kind of FOMC high.

The average price move into an FOMC off the 1969 low is pointing where everything else does and that is somewhere near the March 2015 low, the end of year gap fill, and at least near 161.8 of the move off the recent lows. Let's call it from 2030-2045 for lack of arguing. I don't personally think the high is going to extend into the following week unless Monday and Tuesday are very weak. I expect a bit of a pull back Monday and if it does it is most likely a BTFD scenario.

It appears I will not get the break of 1800 in March as I kept insisting on. I will openly admit that was wrong. I still feel I got robbed in February however.

At the moment I still hold some Q1 SPY 185 puts I will add to this week. I also hold April VXX calls. I picked up some 199 puts for a trade into March expiration cause I think we can test 2k area ahead of the announcement. I plan to buy TLT as far out as June/September/December and will make a plan for SPY ahead of the FOMC high upon us.

Sunday, March 6, 2016

Week of March 7, 2016

Time is going to become less available to me in the immediate future. I am attempting to make time around FOMC because it is one of the best trading opportunities. Yikes has his studies linked in the right column with the Fed day and Seasonal. My apologies in advance for looking a bit further ahead than the current week. Airyk and Yikes can feel free to put up a new post any time their little heart desires.

I took the time to update what I am seeing back to the FOMC high in September so the chart is basically 6 months. On the chart you will see FH (Fed High) and FL (Fed Low). These pertain to the week of FOMC to include the low that week and the ultimate high immediately after. The green price points are the low to high and the red the Fed high to the ultimate low thereafter. Average prices notated in lower left of chart.

Looking at the chart you will note the low around 1948 the week of the September FOMC and the high of 2021. You will notice the back test of the FOMC candle before moving higher into October and November. (There is no November meeting). After the October FOMC high you will notice the market came right back into the September candle again, and then before the FOMC high in December after a lower high.

Now take note of the January FOMC high on February 1st and the September FOMC weekly low in September Prices of 1947.20 and 1948.27(forgot to label September, but it is the red candle with a wick on the green horizontal line and has a red downtrend line coming off it).

September and March are identical from the stance of seasonal expiration and FOMC the same week. As of Friday we back tested and pierced the line off the last 2 FOMC highs and are seemingly trying to correct off this line. This high also tagged a weekly line off the September "Monday" close off the FOMC and where the seasonal unwind occurred. This worked great last year and appears it may again. I expect the range of 1947-1993 to trade before, during, and after FOMC. This Friday set up looks similar to the high made the end of August. There is a trade for both bulls and bears in here if you make a systematic approach mid way and give yourself "time". Profits have to be taken accordingly but upon the high I wouldn't be fearful of leaving runners to the downside. My assumption is to be aware and take some off at 1993 just in case. (You can always add) Highs are being made the last and first weeks of the month back to August. On an immediate pull back dependent on the seasonal unwind would target 1993-2041. All 3 pivots are in this range. If the pull back gets too deep then 1947 could be it again for upside. "Bear" in mind that this March high could be it for awhile.
Today's candle body isn't right but the high and low are correct. You can see how January FOMC week toyed with the line off September's FOMC high before the break out. We will see what tomorrow brings before finding this possible low if we do (I think we will) manage a tad lower.

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

March 2, 2016

7 Year Anniversary Upon Us

I am not going to get too carried away here and am posting a 4 hour SPY chart below.

First I will say good job by those bullish staying the course.

As Yikes and I were discussing in the last thread there is some stuff going on here and FOMC is right around the corner. Week 2 of a month doesn't provide the highs of the month and as I told Yikes I haven't back tested it so it isn't 100%. This is just a top of the head thing so if you are a short term trader this should be taken into account if it is accurate. Quad witching / ES rollovers have tended to make lows either the week of or week prior to Opex. Generally it has been the 2nd week with a possible retest. An FOMC low is due even if it goes higher on more of their bullshit.

The higher measured move was broke on Wednesday and the next for SPX would be as high as 2011-2012. I haven't done any fibs to see where the 161.8 is.

Regardless of what it all appears to be I still say we are not going to hold 1810. Maybe I won't get it this month but my money is still betting on it.

4 Hour SPY back to November High