Sunday, January 31, 2016

February Week 1, 2016

I am tossing up a SPY chart today rather than the SPX. It isn't something I typically post here and it isn't something I look at that often on the Hubb Platform.

195 is where the gap and go went from October 2nd. Bulls obviously have to regain this for anything higher. The shaded box is your resistance zone. 194.38 and 196.80 are measured move possibilities if it clears that 195 and then the obvious pivot in the mid 1970's on the SPX. My view will not change without something above 1988 on the SPX holding. The games they can play are better than any of us and all I was looking for was a retest of the February 2014 low by or in March. I don't see any reason to change my view at this juncture. Wednesday's FOMC low is all one needs to concern him or herself with here in my opinion.

Monday, January 25, 2016

FOMC January 26, 2015

As we look forward to the first FOMC of 2016 I wanna mention the areas the Fed likes to use to convince the general population:
Consumer Sentiment
Housing Starts / Permits

Easy enough to manipulate? Toss these out and nothing else looks so promising.

Bullish view: The last 2 FOMC meetings had a tradeable low the Monday or Tuesday before the announcement. Octobers led into another week of bouncing into the November high. Decembers led to a 2 week rally that ended just before this last correction. If this happens for January I would give it that much of a window with a price as high as 1993. I had drawn a line on the chart off the last 2 FOMC lows thinking the price should trade on this FOMC (1929). So far still 20ish short and I would have thought some kind of overthrow. There is a 6 month FOMC High line that tags the 1951 gap area and Septembers FOMC close was around 1958. This takes into account a bounce that would get you another week.

Bearish view: We were 320 points off the May 2015 high last week. We have managed to retest the high of November 2013 and the low from April of 2014. The new moves higher in 2013 and 2014 were a result of moving higher into mid Janaury. 2015 was the result of an all time high before January and Central Banks being extended trading contracts into the end of 2015. There is 7 weeks before the next FOMC meeting so there is a window that should be anywhere from next week into about or just after February Opex to get the desired downside target ahead of the next ES rollover in March. Including January we now have 3 consecutive months of lower highs and lower lows. February will mark at least 4 of lower highs at this juncture.

Personal view: The bulls need to protect the open last Thursday and rally off it to get the higher high than Friday. Since October of 2014 the market has refused to trade around this 1909 area. Straight up through it, gap, or straight down through it. It is now the Friday pre-FOMC high. The last 2 February's have resulted in a low that led to higher highs so I can't find reason after all of this not to think we can't see another lower low next week considering the state of EVERYTHING. Last January we saw something similar with a gap the start of FOMC week that led to the very same just as in 2014 and 2015. Target since all this started has been retest of last February low in range from 1750-1770 for now.

Gotta clear that dashed green line and get by that 1910.95 (my price) to get the rest. 1929 could be bigger than it really looks

Saturday, January 23, 2016

January 23, 2016

A little over a week ago I posted the chart below. In the last post I thought a lower low this past week would be a gift. It over ran the 1840 area by nearly 30 but no big deal cause I fully thought 1834 should trade after the break of that August low finally came. (I still call bullshit on that cause I think it missed its mark by 15-30)

In January of 2015 this market made a 2 week double top that bugged the crap out of me. This morning I revisited that area. Upon doing so I simply added a Gann line coming off the high just before the FOMC (2064). Low and behold it tagged it almost as perfect as it could this past Wednesday at 1812. This line is based on trading days and since we know there are 250ish you can do that math.

When I talked about a lower low being a gift I thought we should rally 90-120 from that area and possibly more if it got lower. On the chart you will see I said I thought 1929 should trade on FOMC day. At this juncture I would say it looks pretty feasible.

Anyway this is just going to be the weekend post cause I wanna put something new up Monday night ahead of FOMC after we see what Monday brings. A gap and go in either direction could change things dramatically.

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Week of January 18th, 2016

I think I have made it clear that I am as bearish as anybody. At this juncture I want to throw out some caution to the bears. I am not saying we can't tag lower but suggesting the preservation of your hard earned money. Just my thought here going forward over the next couple weeks since I don't expect to have much time to track this daily action.

I was conservatively bearish at the end of December. It was important for me to see 1900 break ahead of FOMC this month. I got that and then some. Under my scenario I merely needed to see the break of the August low before February to stay out of hibernation. If this was the low then I need it to be retested within 2 weeks of this next higher high. I would consider anything around 1840 to be a gift.

I think we can rally about 120 off this low or more if it comes from lower. What I want to see is a higher high this week then a retest of around 1929 before making the FOMC high. I am NOT chasing the long just to be clear. If and when I do it won't be until FOMC and it will be a tight chase. I think it will be important to keep an eye on the high from the 7th. It can go higher than this but protection is necessary at this juncture. After that the safest short would probably come on the break of the FOMC low. Get me back below 1904 again and I say game on into the end of February to mid March.

Went back a little farther on the daily and tried not to clutter it too much.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

January 14, 2016

I am not going to be lengthy this evening. KISS as they say.

As I look at the charts the market appears to be under just a little bit of selling pressure here (Sarc). All the market has to do is set the next line. I truly believe this was done off the June 2013 low when it managed the 1991 high in July of 2014. There was an upper line in the sand off that low and that is when it was breached assuring us of higher.

Now we are in a position where everyone is looking for a bounce. I believe there is an excavator doing its work. That work is to back fill. The talk of that line off Oct 2014 and August 2015 seems irrelevant to me at this juncture. Mainly because I don't believe August got to finish its work thanks to yet another rule the TBTF caused. I think the rules are or have changed and you either sit and wait or take a risk. Trying to bottom pick a true change in trend can be hazardous to your financial well being.

I will close by saying this isn't how we want to bounce off today's low so I will continue looking lower and take advantage of what opportunities present themselves. I thought we could see an FOMC high based on the selling but if I look closer I can also see where 1929 can present a problem if this selling continues.

Lines on the current chart are a work in progress simply because I don't think we have seen the bottom yet. We are more than likely getting close, I am just in no mood to buy. I know this is hindsight but yesterday and more so last night when I was watching ES I wanted to state I thought we needed a higher high immediately followed by a lower that all in 1 day!

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Week of January 11, 2016

It was an ugly start to 2016. I did not look at any final statistics historically but am sure some of you did.

I posted some charts on the last thread and found most to be at a critical juncture. It is what I would consider a do or die situation for most. A bounce is actually a bit difficult to put a number on right here. I will say that I think if we break down 1890 this week that I don't believe the future is bright for the bulls.

I had a conservative time frame about hitting 1900 before FOMC this month. The market almost did this in the first week. During this bull the market has managed to retest it's open at some point during the month so keep this in mind going forward. The rally should look like a rip your face off due to short covering so it could manage this fairly quick even if we do touch that 1890-1900 area Monday. I am still looking lower regardless. I still expect a retest of at least the February 2014 low and would suffice for anything between 1750-1770ish. Earnings kick off this week so something else to watch for opportunity.

Aside from Monday I am not going to have a lot of time during the week unless the cold changes others mind sets. Good luck and Keep 'Em Green!
I have not posted this since its first draft and before I do I want to share another thought that just occurred to me. I was all about the FOMC highs in 2015 and as I stared more at charts due to my expectations I am expecting lower ahead of the Fed. My thought is we are in for a reversal off the norm. Where we land will probably determine price but at this moment I believe the FOMC high either that week or the following (Monday or Tuesday) will either be around the 1962 level and if that breaks there is a good chance at either the Sept FOMC high or to really mess things up the October close around 2060 - 2080. If it breaks and closes above the 1962 level you put your stop there and then chase it tight. Be ready for anything around that 1955-66 level. I will post that daily chart in the thread

I stated I expected to add some lower lines to this chart. This is the recent weekly and shows that point of infliction upon the market. Due to a conversation with Eddy I added that extra down trend channel line off the October 2014 low. Vertical lines are end of year. I put Friday's low on to show the intersect. I have no faith in the August low from a line perspective. Once we break lower I will clean this up.

Thursday, January 7, 2016

Worst Start Ever

Well so far we are off to the worst start ever to begin a year.

There isn't any reason to get lengthy here I just wanted something new to close out the week. Something new will be put up over the weekend before Futures open Sunday night.

I tried to bring the weekly chart into something I hope one could see. I only added the little line off the 1871.91 September low. Again, due to breakers I see no reason to look at the August low. Vertical lines are simply the next 2 FOMC meetings. The off color line is the one added and suggests to be careful long until ya can break and close around the 1980 level. This of course will most likely be next week. Other than that bulls just have to hope to keep that line directly under this last candle intact on the Friday close.

I said I expected 1900 before the next FOMC and that lower red dashed line sits around 1755 (Where it meets the FOMC vertical in January)

Saturday, January 2, 2016

January Week 1 2016

As we started out 2015 I had been looking for either a 2nd or 3rd quarter high. My thesis was that if it topped in the 2nd quarter it would likely make a retest in the 3rd. As I look at the chart I would venture to say it came close enough when it retested in November. When QE3 was announced this market corrected into November of 2012 and never looked back.

Early in 2015 the plan was to stalk the bull into the 2150-2173 and ultimately that 2214 price. We all obviously know where it has at least temporarily ended. In my opinion (And I am sure many of yours) this 2134.72 has to be taken out if we are going to look higher. I am not a fundamentalist when it comes to the market but I do know you cannot pay debt with nothing.

I am a revolution / fib guy for the most part. I have talked enough about "225" and 45 degree prices not to bore you with too much shit here. I will simply tell you that the lines on my weekly chart are based on the May 2013 and May 2015 highs (447.54 or just under 225x2). If you do the fib math with 61.8 you will find a revolution is actually 222.48 so rounding up a couple points for the next move is feasible in my book and close enough. Where these prices start and stop are not under our control. When we made the 1560.33 low in June of 2013 the plan was to see if they could exceed the 45 degree price and they did so a year later. Our last significant low is now at 1737.92 in my book. We have not touched that 45 degree price(2213.91) in what is now approaching 2 years. A sign of weakness if you ask me. I expect to retest this level by March which means August's low is not going to hold the way I see it. The Fed and PPT will probably put up a good fight for as long as they can and since they have implemented circuit breakers there isn't any reason to think they won't. They proved this back in August. I don't think they can take back their humungous interest rate hike and implement QE4 in the last year of a presidential term. That would be absurd in my book.

I am bearish / neutral into 2016. I think the year will probably end somewhere around the December high of 2013 but also feel that could be optimistic. There is just too much HFT and news crap that drives algo's for me to get as bearish as I would like to here. I will wait and see how they handle the 2k level from below first. Ya can't leave thinly traded price levels behind...

I wish everyone a Happy and Prosperous 2016.

Weekly Chart back to near the October 2011 low: (1370.58 high included)
I know it is a little bit busy and condensed. For now I am only concerned with the solid blue and that little lime green dashed line below. I marked a spot I am expecting that retest of feeling that is has to find that lower dotted red line at least 1 more time.