Wednesday, December 21, 2016

December 21/28, 2016

I wasn't going to do a new post but since I had put up the new chart I thought I would share a little more with a brief update.
Last year at this time I was full blown bearish. As of now I am not although all my positions indicate otherwise. As I look at the price I really want to be but it seems just a tad early yet. We still have to break down and retest without making a higher high first. At the moment it may appear we did but it hasn't gone deep enough in my view for that insurance.
Price got beyond a couple of my targets by a bit but it isn't a deterrent because I always thought the market had to set a future move. As I look back to the February low I had never thought it went low enough so I went back and saw I was looking from 1750-1790 somewhere back then. If it had tagged 1788 based on the weekly line I had then this 2277.53 is a very nice fit. No matter what happens here we have to expect a bounce. How long and how much momentum that has will provide the best trade in my opinion. The last 3 February's have provided lows to trade, will we make it a 4th?

Gotta take out the green dashed next

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Final FOMC for 2016

Today we have our final FOMC announcement for our current administration. The next isn't scheduled until after the Trump inauguration (Jan 31-Feb 1).

It seems apparent the Fed had a price target they had to chase into the announcement today. I am impressed at how far they took this considering price levels below that were totally ignored. I did the math for the 45 degree price off the February low and put it on the chart. I also made a note of the measured move off the June low (a ZZ?) Time right now also puts us within about a day of the 4 month move from April to August and that line is on the chart as well. 2214 and 2243 barely caused a hiccup much like 2250 so this has to be about a Fed Funds target price we are aiming for. The next FOMC line below is 2180.


Sunday, December 4, 2016

December 4, 2016

Well it has taken some time but they finally got to the 2214 target that has been anticipated.

Now the looming question is whether or not this was the finale. I believe we are in for a correction but for now won't anticipate much until after the December FOMC a week from Wednesday. I believe if we correct into that meeting the bounce that may come off it could be short lived. Right now I think we have to test something into the 2163-2180 range.

I hope to have a little time for the blog headed into the holidays so I am not going to get ahead of myself at the moment. Right now I think December is setting up to be very interesting.

After the move yesterday I can see this puncturing my next objective. Trying to talk me into no resistance and free air at these levels isn't going to work. 2250 give or take will  provide plenty. That dashed black line at the top of the chart that has been there forever was always the probability. Managed to get near my next price about a week earlier than anticipated. Get above that and I will believe the bull keeps charging.

Monday, November 21, 2016

Gobble! Gobble! Happy T-Day to all

Does Santa wear a red suit for a reason?

It has been a rough road since May/July of 2015.  At this juncture I fully believe the tide is about to turn. I don't know how easy it is going to be given a retest of some proportion should certainly be in play. The last couple of years that real decline didn't come until we rounded the corner into the New Year.



I am personally looking for a high in a time frame from this coming Wednesday into perhaps next Wednesday. By now everyone knows where the targets are and it appears the hunt is finally on to find them. Why they couldn't have just did it and gotten it over with a year ago is a mystery but it is what it is. 

I removed the line with the first price objective on it

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

November 2, 2016

I stared and listened and honestly came up with nothing looking at the SPX Chart. The 2081 is the immediate line in the sand yet as I see it. Typical FOMC bullshit with a low probable today as long as that holds. That still holds us up around 90 points from what I see as the ultimate bull / bear line so not excited. I am still in the camp that says our ATH is not in yet. I think the next move above 2154 will be the last attempt at it though....


Thursday, October 20, 2016

October 20, 2016

Just a quick little something so we can have a new thread.

I want to point out a couple tidbits. First this recent low is still 135 points above the bull / bear line. It is also still about 45 higher than our June low line. You don't have to go back any further than 2015 to find the importance of this level at FOMC prices around that 2114 mark. The new floor or ceiling seems to be around that 2163-2173 pivot. Giving this pivot some wiggle room cause of that 1991-1993 level. Back at the beginning of the year and again around Brexit this was a level I though was very important. I really had no idea it was going to be the secondary low for 2016.

The other thing is the November 2012 low. At 4 years x225 you get that level of 2243 (900+1343). Then of course we have the 80/20 rule I simply cannot ignore along with the infamous 2214. Ahead of FOMC there is still a 90 point range from 1991-2081 that warrants caution. Nearly a year ago this recent low was the high back in November. Gotta respect this FOMC pivot area til it is gone. Even at that it can easily be seen as a bear trap til 2081 is taken out.

Zoomed in a bit cause I don't think we have to look past the June low for now

Thursday, October 6, 2016

October 6, 2016

I noticed things are coming to a crawl here and really apologize for being so busy. I really just haven't had time. Came to Colorado for some work and then ended up getting nailed with a big storm back home. I have stayed in Colorado as the lone wolf. Not sure if I am ever gonna leave. Absolutely love it here and it has replaced North Carolina for where I wanna spend my last years.

As I glanced at the charts it seems they just wanna milk it out. Really thinking it is just ahead of FOMC or Election Day that is going to wisk us to that ultimate high so long anticipated. It still appears something from that 2214-2242 range before it ends. I don't like the idea of getting above 2214 but it has to set a future move somewhere so I can live with the 2242 if need be. Long anticipated target and now in a date range that fits. NFP could be the trigger to get that price level. Plenty of time and room for divergence to play out.

Hoping to find a little time to get a couple trades in very soon and to spend a little time here as allowed. Finally catching my breath. Thank you all for staying the course and I hope ya don't give up.

I just added a new set of lines to the chart I constantly post based off this most recent 2119 low. Bear line still well below us. I will point out the June low plus 240 in 120 days for those still doubting higher highs. 3.33 times the 666.79 in a 9 year high to high span has a nice ring (give or take the future move forward)


Tuesday, September 13, 2016

9-13-16

I know 200ma had planned on putting his thoughts on a new post this past weekend, but he's busier than a one-armed paper hanger these days, so I'm throwing this up just to get a new thread started.
(If you happen on by here 200, please feel free to overwrite if the mood catches you.)

I think I may have posted this in an earlier thread, but we are still not anywhere near out of options for how this market may go.  At least we've got some volatility now, so that helps open up some day trades at least.  My personal feeling is that the break to the downside of the tight BB ride we had is most likely a fake-out and we'll rip to points further north soon enough, but whether that's the wave 3 blow-off top or the ending diagonal is anyone's guess.


(As a side-note, the third option could be done with wave (iii) and into (iv) as another possibility.)
Happy trading.

Friday, August 12, 2016

8-13-16 (dog days... )

I gots dem low-volume-summa-time bluuuues....


Need I really say more?  I've no more crystal ball than anyone else here, but we are certainly overbought and at what could be looked at as a complete EW 5-count up since Brexit.  

Volume has been steadily dropping since February, and an even more pronounced decline since the late June low (which in 3rd waves should be getting stronger), so there's that to scratch your head over too.  The only way I can see that this might be bearish beyond a refresher-pullback would be if this is some kind of giant B wave of a multi-year expanded flat.  The volume thing would be consistent with that, but I have no more than coin flip odds on the idea.


VIX is currently in a tube only about 2.3 points wide, so somethings gotta give.

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

August 3, 2016

August is on us...

Well so far we have the long anticipated higher highs. This past FOMC is nowhere near its norm so far for either direction. The only thing close was the fact we got a Monday high after the announcement. 6 months off the February 1st high that followed the low preceding the January. The fact we have rallied for 6 months straight (120ish Trading days) is most likely the issue with upside. In 2014 we rallied with smallish corrections right into September's FOMC. I think we can expect the same here and maybe a little more if it wants the October line

Previously I talked about whipsaw but in all honesty I didn't expect it in such a tight range. I am sure the MM's had reason to keep it propped for some kind of future endeavor. As it stands now it is becoming more and more likely we are looking at a fall high. A year later than was previously targeted but it is what it is.

The FOMC high was 366 to the penny off the January 20th low. Today we also hit the top of the channel that I believe originated back at the January FOMC. Take this low out today and the next likely would be the bottom of that channel, and so on...

I think we did something similar to this back in 2013. I don't know how much weakness is in front of us so where to BTFD is really the only question I have going forward. Remember the 2120 gaps and the previous FOMC prices as a guide. Be smart on both ends of this tape is my best advice at the present time.


Tuesday, July 26, 2016

July FOMC

Well here we sit at targets expected a year ago. Going forward I have quite a few things on my mind but am not going to take the time this evening to go over it all. I will say I strongly believe this is meant to be a fall high and my guess is between the September FOMC and the one that falls in November (Conveniently a week before the election) this year.
As we head into our next FOMC rate decision it appears to me this was all set up during the January meeting. I haven't drawn the lines exact but the green dashed are the reference. The high and the low on January 27th have both been in play on one side or the other of that candle. Brexit tossed a wrench into things on both sides. Anyway you can draw a line off the 1/27 high then the 3/10 low (Nailed that one) and off the low of 1/27 and the low 6/16 to get an idea of why I look at FOMC the way I do. I believe one of these lines gets tagged even if we make a higher high with FOMC.
The 3 arrows near the top of the chart indicate the last 2 FOMC highs the week prior (and I put one on last Wednesday's cause I give it great odds of holding). If this one plays out the same way without a higher high we should be looking at a low headed into the release of the minutes in August. Our month of July opened around 2099 which is a well visited FOMC price. I think it takes a close above 2107-2108 to top the highest monthly close and at this point I am actually okay with that cause there should be a higher price later on.
Prices on the chart are FOMC highs and lows. I won't get more bearish than the 2099-2100 line til it is broke and I have already stated I expect 2081 at a minimum. If we do make a higher high 2200 should be pretty easy headed into August Opex


Sunday, July 17, 2016

July 17, 2016

I am not about to call a top after seeing how easy they can make this look. Instead I am going to look for a correction and a dip to buy for a swing. As I look at the weekly chart it appears it has room to run yet. Other charts are a bit iffy at this juncture hence looking for the correction.

When Fam had started her blog I recall putting a post up about the golden rule. As luck would have it that price rests at 2213.91. As I look at the weekly chart the blue line finds this price to an almost exact 9 years off the 2007 top. If it happens to break this level it is very possible we move higher but it should act as a buffer much like the July 2014 high when price was at 1987.68 and only managed the next 4 points before correcting into the first week of August. The way I see it the price should still stay short of 2250. A year ago these prices were on the board but TPTB decided to stretch us.

I fully expect to see a weekly red candle this week and believe it should look much like the time frame from a year ago. If it decides to break out higher against me I know to bail. 2 or 3 weeks ago it became clear the next break above 2114 was headed here. As I look at the monthly chart I think it is possible anything can happen so the long isn't all that safe in my view either and will be guarded like a Fed algo. The 2 levels I will watch below are the July open and the end of December high. FOMC is a week and a half away but I think if we are going to move higher it will be by mid week and don't expect it to be by much unless it is truly a break out finale. Thus far this isn't acting like a typical top but neither did the May 2015.

Looking forward if this somehow ends up being our ultimate high then I would fully expect to test 2150ish come October so I don't think we are anywhere near going into the tank yet. It wouldn't bother me to be wrong about that however. If ya wonder why I am looking here just look at the last 3 mid October lows and the line it made. I mentioned the July stuff in the last post

I only took the chart back to the November 2012 low cause that was our last QE3 dip.
Weekly SPX:


Tuesday, July 12, 2016

July 12, 2016

Something quick..

Market looks like it is in a hurry to get to the 2173 level. Then it looks like it is set to drag this shit out into the fall. I say this thinking we can still find 1950ish again before it finally tops. I still only have one word for all of this L-E-G-A-C-Y It only makes sense after going nowhere for over a year and a half that we tag 180 off the July 2014 high and this recent low. Thought it looked like it could have been a half way back move if one were to look forward.

Prices are cut off at the bottom but don't think it matters. 2173 still the next target though I can see where it may not rush to get there. After that I put the February 2014 low 45 degree price up there at 2213.91. I can see an algo rush to that price if the Fed really wants it with the next FOMC

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

July 6, 2016

Patience....

FOMC June minutes get released. I had this day pegged for a couple other reasons and now this just adds to it. We are at the same "time" as we were back in December from the high near the start of the month and to the end of the month. I try not to manipulate this chart because it is my FOMC guideline. I did have to move a line to the June high and have yet to put the June FOMC stuff on this because I didn't feel much of a need when I looked at the other price points.

I drew what could be the potential megaphone there has been discussion about with the heavy dashed lines. I could have extended the low line into the 3rd week of August as this was my intention but I saved the chart already so too late. I will post my other daily in the thread.

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Q2 2016 Ending

Higher my ass
(but one man's opinion)

I am not going to get carried away with anything. Blame it all on Brexit if ya want. I am posting a weekly chart back to the 2009 low. I started playing around with speed and 1/3's and while doing so I found similar measured moves both in time and price. Price is the hardest to get right as we all know. There is just a bit too much virgin space below for me. I can tell  you while I was calculating everything I had available in my little pea brain I had no issues finding Yikes 1950 next week.

Be patient.

Saturday, June 18, 2016

6-18-16

Getting about time to throw up a new thread (or was that "throw-up on my new threads"?).

Nothing earth shattering here, just going to post a weekly chart which looks to me to be pretty bearish.  I've mentioned many times I have no problem with the idea that we could go much, much higher after a correction here, or we could actually be in a longer term bear market, but no way to know until we take out a few levels.  The first one I think is nearly a given is the .382 retracement at around SPX 2000.  The next one, should the moves since the April high turn out to be an expanded flat and a C-wave down equalling 1.618 of wave A would be right around 1980.  Below that we have the .618 retracement of the leg up since February at ~1930.  It would take a convincing break below that to make me think the bullish case is finally off the table as I have my doubts that a blow off top would come after that much weakness, but all that remains to be seen and is a ways off at this point.




Enjoy your summer!

Sunday, June 12, 2016

June 13, 2016 - FOMC Week

Not gonna get carried away. Obviously the May low around 2026 is where the truth lies. For now we have support at the other FOMC highs of 2056 (gap area support the market avoids much like my hated 1909) and 2076. There is a steeper channel we have yet to break the lower end of. Perhaps that is the start of something more for downside.

If time allows ahead of Wednesday's FOMC announcement I will try to get something new up or at least update the chart with a blurb since I am leaving plenty of room.


Saturday, June 4, 2016

June 2016 here we come...

I am going to try to take an approach to both sides of this thing. April tossed a bit of a curve ball at me with the high on the 20th. This was a week ahead of FOMC which isn't the norm, or at least hadn't been. Toss this one out and highs have pretty much been the first week of the month since November. Having said this we haven't made a lower monthly low since February and probably more importantly March since the one in February was bullshit (My opinion). May was both higher and lower during the month (off the first week not above April) leading us into this last high so for now I consider it neutral.

I know we are a week and a half away from the June FOMC but here we sit at the same levels we have been enduring in what seems forever when it comes to the Fed crap. Since the end of QE3 we have done nothing but stay in the range of 1810.10-2134.72 with the majority of this above 2020.

For now it seems like both bulls and bears are up against the wall yet again. If we break above the line I have residing over the current highs it most likely hunts the next one. Due to the fact we never took out the February 2014 low at 1738 there are still measured moves that point higher. 2154, 2173, 2214 and then the 2243. Since the low in March of 2009 the market has been able to sustain 5 points per week with the touch of 1810 in February as close as we have come to breaking down further.

Yikes has been adamant about his study and nothing on the chart can provide an argument against it without a higher high. To me it seems the pressure is on the bulls (FED) here. My bias kicks in a little here but it is always nice to know when it is wrong. I am not going to push bearishness on anyone because much like a year ago it is still about patience. I drew a few lines on the chart depicting what I see. The red uptrend arrow line on the lower portion is where bulls lose complete control in my humble opinion. If you look close enough you will see where it lies within the boundaries of Yikes study come the first week of July. It basically sits around my hated 1909 level.

The most bullish line I have going forward is off the September 2015 FOMC high and the December 2015 FOMC high (days of not closes after). This is not a call but a move above last May brings it into play. As luck would have it right now the current line we are trading on above nearly equals the November high at the June announcement. Something has to give soon.....The floor isn't far below. FWIW in the last post I mentioned the ability to hold 2105 on the week being important for the bears so either we jump above with gusto or ready the buckets. Just be patient!

Monday, May 30, 2016

"May" it end Red...

I hope everyone enjoyed the holiday weekend and did so safely.

As May comes to a close on Tuesday the charts remain bullish. In the last post I mentioned a similarity with 2014 when we had a May expiration low that led to the market creeping up into September's 2019 high. This isn't looking much different at the moment but that could actually change quickly as long as the 2105ish area holds. I haven't taken the time to look into the charts very deep. The weekend became tediously busy for me. What I do know is that the line I track for FOMC has broken out upwards. This doesn't come back without a solid test of of 2080ish and if that breaks we can start looking lower again.

It took nearly a full month to correct some 85 points and now in a week or so we are nearly back to that level. The 2100-2110 area is the last resort for the bears to gain any kind of control if a weak summer is going to present itself. If we fail to correct during the upcoming week I cannot find a reason not to hunt the 2200+ numbers that had been tossed about previously. This market is obviously of a one track mind out to put a legacy on an administration that has turned America into fools. I don't have the energy required today for me to put on a good ramble.

Stay with the tape til it turns and Keep 'em Green.

Bullish cross back on but can it last....

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

May 18, 2016 (Release of April minutes)

I have a little time for myself this morning so though I would use it to toss up something new.

FOMC minutes for April get released today at 2pm ET. Our last FOMC low was made on 3/24 at 2022.49. This is my mark. I noticed the chatter of 2033.80 as well so perhaps from an EW view that is where the failure occurs. 2 weeks ago I tossed out the notion of this thing being in a range headed into this week. Happy not to have had May expiration positions since it has basically been stuck. A break of 2022 can easily send this down sub 2k into around the 1993 Fed support. Break this and game over for the bulls in my book. There is a trading void (free air) that has sat in the 2013 range for a couple years, so heads up here too. I always have issues with VIX:VXV at current levels and considering where it has been of late it's due....

I want to remind everybody what happened in 2014 cause at the moment there are similarities. We made a May expiration low and rallied drudgingly aside from a pull back in August right into the 2019 high made that September. I have issues with this scenario playing out but until 1738 is broke I have no reason not to keep the higher high target on the table. We are at a juncture where the high made this past Monday is probably the only thing that matters. If we only make a slightly lower low there isn't much reason not to think there won't be a monthly high made next week ahead of the Memorial Day weekend. For now 2072 fits fine so I wouldn't be long til that is breached. Even with an inverse H&S here it seems highly likely to test 2022 minimum in my view. All in all I am fairly neutral and am pretty confident in the level bears need to capture for an onslaught to continue. The minutes today could be the catalyst. You guys all know how I am about my 225 so in closing I will toss out 3 years x112.50 off the May 2013 high and let ya do the math. You can do the same off the May 2015 high -112.50. Good luck, stay focused, and Keep 'em Green!


Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Waiting for Godot...

5-11-16

Not feeling too verbose today as we wait for something to happen, so I won't blather on about this or that.  Just want to point out the VIX though-  as you can see from the chart the BB's on the daily chart have been forming a tube for over a month now and the BB width is just about a narrow as she gets.

Something has got to happen, and I have my doubts that VIX breaks for a strong run to the downside.


Sunday, May 1, 2016

Thoughts for the week of 5/2/2016 (Sea Legs and Yikes12)

Sea Legs from 4/29/2016 (Friday):
     We have four different markers that suggest the 2040ish area next Monday: The H&S pattern of the topping process over the past couple weeks targets 2045; the C=A x 1.618 is also at 2045-6; the apex of the running triangle we had from March 22 to April 12 is at 2045; and last but not least, the bottom channel line from the Feb low crosses 2043 on Monday COB
     All in all this looks like a pretty solid target zone and I'm not expecting more out of this move, I may start a long there as well once I get to see the shape of the divergences that low sets up. If not there, then I certainly will if we cross above 2100 again because I find it very unlikely we don't see 2150 or more should that happen.
     The most important thing at this point is to see either a five wave down sequence to confirm that the trend is (FINALLY!!!!) down, or to overlap 2100 to likewise confirm that the trend is still up, regardless of divergences on the daily charts.

Yikes12 from 5/1/2016 (Sunday)
Max downs over three week periods into expiration, backwards through July 2015:
-8, -16, -130, -160, -97, -60, -49, -86, -133, -57
*suggests decent odds for 50+ down into expiration

Max downs in NFP weeks the past 12, backwards through May 2015:
-8, -16, -68, -126, -48, 2, -59, -86, -36, -45, -21, -40
*suggests decent odds for 40+ down this (NFP) week

Max downs in Mays the past 6, backwards:
-18, -24, -17, -106, -52, -146
*ugh, not helpful to my bearish case!

on gaps:

1.) only three monthly gaps have stayed open since mid-2011
     a.) January 1212 at 1258, which retraced to 1267 (closest) in June 2012
     b.) January 2016 at 2044, which filled in March 2016
     c.) March 2016 at 1932, still open and not retraced
     * suggests decent odds of a 1932 fill in May

2.) only weekly gaps have stayed open more than 10 weeks since late 2011
     a.) January 2, 2012 at 1258, which retraced to 1267 (closest) after 22 weeks
     b.) January 16, 2012 at 1289, which filled after 19 weeks
     c.) August 6, 2012 at 1391, which filled after 13 weeks
     d.) September 2, 2013 at 1633, which retraced to 1646 (closest) after 5 weeks
     e.) May 26, 2014 at 1901, which filled after 20 weeks
     f.) October 5, 2015 at 1951, which filled after 13 weeks
     g.) December 7, 2015 at 2092, which filled after 19 weeks (two weeks ago)
    h.) February 15, 2016 at 1865, going into 11 weeks, still open and not retraced at all
     *  This does not suggest 1865 by the May expiration.  The two that filled in 13 weeks both saw max-downs of about 4.2% the last three weeks.  That 1258 which took 22 weeks to even retrace is a nightmare for my 195 put ideas for May and June.

     This suggests to me that my best bet for 1865 is not in May.  Accordingly, going forward I will be selling (remaining) May 195 puts on weakness, and buying (more) June 195 puts on strength, and rotating even to the end of June quarterly 195s starting soon.

Happy trading and good luck!





Monday, April 25, 2016

As I dove into the charts I was led to believe this could be bullish right into another fall high. Of course having said this there are price points above that would need to be cleared. All it would take is a slightly higher high around the May expiration to produce this the way I view it.

What matters this week is the ability to hold the 2111 high made last week and the line that sits overhead about 5 points higher than that. When I played with the math I found that the November high was an exact tag off the 1810 low and a projected 2306 high at 61.8 based on that low. Even when I was as bearish as I was to start the year I never expected 1738 to be broken immediately yet price projects lower targets than that. I bring all of this up because the bull potential is still very much alive in my view.

On to FOMC: Since last September our FOMC highs have been
September   2020.86
October       2116.48 (made 3rd of November)
December    2076.72
January       1947.20 (made 1st of February)
March          2056.60 (made March 22nd if using the immediate high after FOMC)

Off each low whether made the week of or week before the gains from low to high were +93.56, 99.26, 83.46, 74.50, and 87.35. The high made on April 20th would have had a rally counted from the 2022.49 low right after the March FOMC high. This was +88.56.

2020.86-2022.49 has been tagged before, during or after the last FOMC highs back to September aside from the February 1st high that fell short. Last September we created a low a week ahead at 1927 which if we recall was the secondary high off the January meeting.

At this point breaking the low last Monday at 2073.65 should hunt one of the other FOMC highs before a significant bounce. Basically a range of 75-100 looks likely based on history. Since we are sitting here going into a month without a Fed meeting I believe the corrective high should come about 5-6 points lower than the 2111 high. You can take note of what happened here back in August or for that matter the beginning of December near this level. Technical stuff favors the bears the way I see it here so the preference would be to see the April 20 high hold then reevaluate the trade and the trend. I am leery if we head lower first since we are sitting 6 months off the November high and 3 off the February high. A low going into the 1st week of May could create the elusive higher high that appears to be looming.

Yikes put together the list (hat tip) of FOMC weekly closes dating backwards: March 2050, January 1940, December 2006, October 2079, September 1958, July 2104, June 2110, April 2108, and March 2108


Saturday, April 16, 2016

Gaps and more for the week of April 17, 2016

So anybody here for awhile knows there's a few recent open weekly SPX gaps at 2092 and 1865.  A study has identified 31 such weekly SPX gaps (i.e., those that didn't close intraweek) since November 2011, including 27 that closed, 2 that have not closed after years and the 2 (in 19 weeks or less) that are open at 1865 and 2092.

  • 2 of the 31 closed after 19 weeks, and if 2092 closes this week it will be the 3rd because this coming week is week 19.
  • 2 of the 31 closed after 13 weeks.  All others that closed within 19 weeks were closed in fewer than 13 weeks.
  • Of the 2 that never closed, the closest retraces were after 5 weeks (within 13 points) and after 21 weeks (within 8 points).
One more data point to throw in is a gap from December 2007 that took 263 weeks to fill.  The closest retrace was at 20 weeks (within 36 points).

Here's the point.  Whether we fill that 2092 or just retrace even closer in the next week or two, there is that 1865 weekly gap below, and its going on week 9.  The end of week 13 is May expiration.  So regardless of what happens with 2092, my argument up here is that 1865 hits week 13 on May 20th, and week 19 on June 27th.

From my viewpoint, there's decent odds for 1865 before May 20th, and even better odds for it before June 27th.

But here's the left-field shot.  For the past 10 quarters, quarterly lows have alternated between the first month and the second month, and the 3 quarters before these 10 were all in the first month.  We are on schedule for an April low this quarter, and we have two weeks to do it.  If the wave 3 idea is right, we might be seeing 1865 before April 29th.

Let's leave this with two links just to put a point on it.

Falling buybacks:  http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/15/reuters-america-buyback-boost-to-us-stocks-to-dwindle-as-cash-flow-shrinks.html

and

Accelerating insider selling: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CgKS32zUIAEnjm_.jpg

My position is SPY 195 puts for May 20th, and I'll be buying more for the May and June expirations over the next few weeks.




Friday, April 8, 2016

Preachin' to the choir

4-8-16

You guys don't need the likes of me to tell you what time it is, so I'll put up a pretty chart and call it good at that.


We all know this thing is on borrowed time, only question is when it starts down with a quickness.  Based on the NYADV chart, I think we come in on Monday to see a lovely shade of red.



Good luck and happy trading.

Friday, April 1, 2016

April 1, 2016 (Friday, NFP day, April Fools Day).  2080 or bust?

Some patterns to get April started, but note that the NFP week ends today so that pattern information is relevant to today!

Quarterly pattern:
Going back 10 quarters, lows have alternated between 1st month, 2nd month, 1st month, 2nd month.  This calls for an April (1st month) Q2 low.  The three quarters before these 10 were all 1st month lows too, so the bias would still be for an April low here. 

NFP weeks:
Second, NFP weeks. Working backwards, 52, -60, -122, 2, 20, 20, -78, -26, -24, -14, 8, 6, -34, 60, -13, 7, 14, -15, 5

Filter those NFP weeks to those that followed down pre-NFP weeks, and its -122, -24, -14, 8, 6, -34, 60, -13, -15, and the max downs were all down more than our -8 so far this week.  This gives a decent speculative shot that we close below 2028 today!

Post-NFP weeks
Past 5 post-NFP weeks saw max downs as -31, -70, -64, -83, -77.

Recent weeks generally in the uptrend:
Max downs for recent weeks: 
-28, -17, -31, -16, -27, 6 (this shows a strong uptrend)

Sunday, March 20, 2016

March 20, 2016

Short and sweet on this agenda. I think most are in the same frame of mind now so merely put a couple notes on the chart. It seems imminent but what the hell do I know. Hope to find more time mid to end of the week. Yikes and Airyk can feel free to amend or put something new up any time their heart desires.


Sunday, March 13, 2016

March FOMC Week

I cannot find a reason to get into anything analytic when it comes to this week. Unless this time is truly different show me when we haven't arrived at some kind of FOMC high.

The average price move into an FOMC off the 1969 low is pointing where everything else does and that is somewhere near the March 2015 low, the end of year gap fill, and at least near 161.8 of the move off the recent lows. Let's call it from 2030-2045 for lack of arguing. I don't personally think the high is going to extend into the following week unless Monday and Tuesday are very weak. I expect a bit of a pull back Monday and if it does it is most likely a BTFD scenario.

It appears I will not get the break of 1800 in March as I kept insisting on. I will openly admit that was wrong. I still feel I got robbed in February however.

At the moment I still hold some Q1 SPY 185 puts I will add to this week. I also hold April VXX calls. I picked up some 199 puts for a trade into March expiration cause I think we can test 2k area ahead of the announcement. I plan to buy TLT as far out as June/September/December and will make a plan for SPY ahead of the FOMC high upon us.


Sunday, March 6, 2016

Week of March 7, 2016

Time is going to become less available to me in the immediate future. I am attempting to make time around FOMC because it is one of the best trading opportunities. Yikes has his studies linked in the right column with the Fed day and Seasonal. My apologies in advance for looking a bit further ahead than the current week. Airyk and Yikes can feel free to put up a new post any time their little heart desires.

I took the time to update what I am seeing back to the FOMC high in September so the chart is basically 6 months. On the chart you will see FH (Fed High) and FL (Fed Low). These pertain to the week of FOMC to include the low that week and the ultimate high immediately after. The green price points are the low to high and the red the Fed high to the ultimate low thereafter. Average prices notated in lower left of chart.

Looking at the chart you will note the low around 1948 the week of the September FOMC and the high of 2021. You will notice the back test of the FOMC candle before moving higher into October and November. (There is no November meeting). After the October FOMC high you will notice the market came right back into the September candle again, and then before the FOMC high in December after a lower high.

Now take note of the January FOMC high on February 1st and the September FOMC weekly low in September Prices of 1947.20 and 1948.27(forgot to label September, but it is the red candle with a wick on the green horizontal line and has a red downtrend line coming off it).

September and March are identical from the stance of seasonal expiration and FOMC the same week. As of Friday we back tested and pierced the line off the last 2 FOMC highs and are seemingly trying to correct off this line. This high also tagged a weekly line off the September "Monday" close off the FOMC and where the seasonal unwind occurred. This worked great last year and appears it may again. I expect the range of 1947-1993 to trade before, during, and after FOMC. This Friday set up looks similar to the high made the end of August. There is a trade for both bulls and bears in here if you make a systematic approach mid way and give yourself "time". Profits have to be taken accordingly but upon the high I wouldn't be fearful of leaving runners to the downside. My assumption is to be aware and take some off at 1993 just in case. (You can always add) Highs are being made the last and first weeks of the month back to August. On an immediate pull back dependent on the seasonal unwind would target 1993-2041. All 3 pivots are in this range. If the pull back gets too deep then 1947 could be it again for upside. "Bear" in mind that this March high could be it for awhile.
Today's candle body isn't right but the high and low are correct. You can see how January FOMC week toyed with the line off September's FOMC high before the break out. We will see what tomorrow brings before finding this possible low if we do (I think we will) manage a tad lower.


Wednesday, March 2, 2016

March 2, 2016

7 Year Anniversary Upon Us

I am not going to get too carried away here and am posting a 4 hour SPY chart below.

First I will say good job by those bullish staying the course.

As Yikes and I were discussing in the last thread there is some stuff going on here and FOMC is right around the corner. Week 2 of a month doesn't provide the highs of the month and as I told Yikes I haven't back tested it so it isn't 100%. This is just a top of the head thing so if you are a short term trader this should be taken into account if it is accurate. Quad witching / ES rollovers have tended to make lows either the week of or week prior to Opex. Generally it has been the 2nd week with a possible retest. An FOMC low is due even if it goes higher on more of their bullshit.

The higher measured move was broke on Wednesday and the next for SPX would be as high as 2011-2012. I haven't done any fibs to see where the 161.8 is.

Regardless of what it all appears to be I still say we are not going to hold 1810. Maybe I won't get it this month but my money is still betting on it.

4 Hour SPY back to November High

Saturday, February 27, 2016

February 27, 2016

I am going to attempt a very neutral view going into a new month to the best of my ability. I am a line guy as most of you know. I also try to look forward more often than not. The double bottom bothered me since it stopped short in my view (on news of course). When I looked at the lines off the highs and lows in November and December I noticed both highs the beginning of those months off the next lower high pointed right at it.

Bullish view: There are a couple price points of importance in the upcoming week. 1st is the ability to hold the 1922 level on Monday and into Tuesday. More importantly is the gap fill from 2/12. Line in the sand is probably 1886 for a close on the week. As long as these levels hold this thing could have the potential for a push ranging from 1978-2044 (Dec 31 gap fill). January 5th fits the best. This is all I can give ya and it would require another FOMC high.

Bearish view: If bears protect this 1963 high and take out the prices mentioned the bulls have to protect this will probably sell off into the week of March 7th. The declines have been in the 8-9 day range since the November high aside from the FOMC December low bullshit. These were all good for at least 90 downside. Bears could actually get a move that would test the channel off the December 29 and February 1st high line. The speed bump will come around that gap fill February 12th.

The way I see it there are 2 lines of importance to go with the 1963 high. The first would allow for a high Tuesday or Wednesday near the 1972 pivot. This would equate to a test of the ES high made after hours on Thursday. The others are a confluence off the December and January FOMC highs and lows. These point to a low into FOMC around 1760. I have to draw this chart yet and will post it as soon as I do.


Still another LH and LL AND Lower Close on the Monthly. Ignore the notes later on cause this thing could go down for another year yet. Too early but most important price could be in the 1010 area

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

2-23-16

In the interest of expediency, I'm going to through up a quick post here so we can start a new thread.

No deep analysis here, just one of my favorite charts.  This is a chart of the NYSE advancers that has moving averages laid over it (raw numbers are invisible).  I like this because it really shows the cycling of the market- how it ebbs and flows as it moves price around.  Hopefully you find it useful.

Monday, February 15, 2016

February 16, 2016

If you wouldn't have made a lower low maybe I could be on board. I realize the move in futures since the close Friday but I am not shook up. I think I have made it clear where I change my mind.

Release of the FOMC Minutes for January on Wednesday and Opex Friday. This could make for a fun week.

I saw the debate going on about the next socialist leader of our country. A bit odd that Nast made the Jack Ass and Elephant symbolic and now ya have the "trump" card about Aesop's fable in the way of the Ass in the Lions skin. Choices are easy 1) an Ass 2) an aloof Ass 3) a Cross dressing Ass


Friday, February 12, 2016

What does Cupid hold?

This will be short but while I am thinking about it: Happy Valentine's Day to all.

I just wanted to show the simplicity of these measured moves and how they have transformed since the initial decline in late December. Take from it what you want but know they exist. Pure speculation at this point but you know where I have been looking and now it could change on the breach of that price. Patience

Hourly Chart and no noise but identical measured moves so far

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

February 10, 2016

I am just going to toss something up quick here to use for the rest of the week. This will be short and sweet and I want to share with you why I think February 2014 was / is so important.
This low was made "256" weeks off the March 2009 low. Since that 1737.92 low it took an additional 67 weeks to make the May 2015 high.
256 / 67= "3.82". Now if you figure the May high rounded at 324 weeks and take 1/3 of it you will find a date landing into the 7 year anniversary at 108 weeks off that February 2014 low. This coincides nicely with an SJ 40-42 week cycle low off that May high as well. There is a margin of error to consider here but that is what makes 1737.92 important.

As an additional note please subtract the late August high from that February 2014 low if ya wanna see why Gann and his 8's work (Within a given window considering the extra time involved)

Saturday, February 6, 2016

February 6, 2016

I want to start by saying although I am bearish and have been since the end of December it doesn't mean the bull is dead yet. It presently appears that way but the abyss is much further down. The little red box on the chart is all I was looking for and the longer it takes the higher that blue dashed line climbs. It can drop below this and all that matters is it regains it.

I have talked about that February 2014 low often enough in the past but it all comes from the March 2009 low in the 1746 area. Back in September of 2013 we tagged the 1730 area and the only retest of this was done at the beginning of February 2014. This was basically the last breakout that hasn't been retested to date. I believe breakouts need to be retested to be true. Keep in mind we have only briefly made an attempt to test the October 2007 high back in June of 2013.

By now you all know I am not a fundamentalist when it comes to the market. I leave that to those of you with a wealth of knowledge beyond my own. From a technical stance I really only concentrate what is in front of me at the present. None of us knows what the future holds in this game they call a stock market.

Before we even made the 1812 low I pointed out I expected 1929 to trade with FOMC and that a Monday high afterwards was most the most likely scenario. Thus far that has panned out. There were higher targets than the 1947 but alas they are still up there and talked about it having to regain that 1951 area for confirmation of anything to get higher. I tried to get long with FOMC and they tossed me a huge curve ball that flipped me the day of the announcement. In hindsight had I just held on to the idea of the Monday high... I claimed I wouldn't be interested in the bounce aside from a scalp or 2 until it cleared 1951 so no harm no foul.

For the week I can see a range from 1828 to as high as 1920 but the latter could well hold until the following week after President's Day and probably wouldn't be as high if it does. That same week is the next release of the January FOMC minutes the 17th. In a Fed driven market you still have this to deal with and for now you all know I am looking at the red box until it is wrong. This could be 2 weeks after the March FOMC and all I wanted was by or in March. The top that led into the May 2015 looks unorthodox to say the least but perhaps the possibility of Central Bank manipulation and the Fed (sarc) is why. I personally find it odd that a large part of this correction started at the end of CB's trading the "free" market into the end of December.

"Bear" in mind the red lines are not set in stone (yet). Red box is basically from the 1812 low down to 1780 if it decides it wants a March low near the end of the month.

Sunday, January 31, 2016

February Week 1, 2016

I am tossing up a SPY chart today rather than the SPX. It isn't something I typically post here and it isn't something I look at that often on the Hubb Platform.

195 is where the gap and go went from October 2nd. Bulls obviously have to regain this for anything higher. The shaded box is your resistance zone. 194.38 and 196.80 are measured move possibilities if it clears that 195 and then the obvious pivot in the mid 1970's on the SPX. My view will not change without something above 1988 on the SPX holding. The games they can play are better than any of us and all I was looking for was a retest of the February 2014 low by or in March. I don't see any reason to change my view at this juncture. Wednesday's FOMC low is all one needs to concern him or herself with here in my opinion.


Monday, January 25, 2016

FOMC January 26, 2015

As we look forward to the first FOMC of 2016 I wanna mention the areas the Fed likes to use to convince the general population:
Consumer Sentiment
Unemployment
Housing Starts / Permits

Easy enough to manipulate? Toss these out and nothing else looks so promising.

Bullish view: The last 2 FOMC meetings had a tradeable low the Monday or Tuesday before the announcement. Octobers led into another week of bouncing into the November high. Decembers led to a 2 week rally that ended just before this last correction. If this happens for January I would give it that much of a window with a price as high as 1993. I had drawn a line on the chart off the last 2 FOMC lows thinking the price should trade on this FOMC (1929). So far still 20ish short and I would have thought some kind of overthrow. There is a 6 month FOMC High line that tags the 1951 gap area and Septembers FOMC close was around 1958. This takes into account a bounce that would get you another week.

Bearish view: We were 320 points off the May 2015 high last week. We have managed to retest the high of November 2013 and the low from April of 2014. The new moves higher in 2013 and 2014 were a result of moving higher into mid Janaury. 2015 was the result of an all time high before January and Central Banks being extended trading contracts into the end of 2015. There is 7 weeks before the next FOMC meeting so there is a window that should be anywhere from next week into about or just after February Opex to get the desired downside target ahead of the next ES rollover in March. Including January we now have 3 consecutive months of lower highs and lower lows. February will mark at least 4 of lower highs at this juncture.

Personal view: The bulls need to protect the open last Thursday and rally off it to get the higher high than Friday. Since October of 2014 the market has refused to trade around this 1909 area. Straight up through it, gap, or straight down through it. It is now the Friday pre-FOMC high. The last 2 February's have resulted in a low that led to higher highs so I can't find reason after all of this not to think we can't see another lower low next week considering the state of EVERYTHING. Last January we saw something similar with a gap the start of FOMC week that led to the very same just as in 2014 and 2015. Target since all this started has been retest of last February low in range from 1750-1770 for now.



Gotta clear that dashed green line and get by that 1910.95 (my price) to get the rest. 1929 could be bigger than it really looks

Saturday, January 23, 2016

January 23, 2016

A little over a week ago I posted the chart below. In the last post I thought a lower low this past week would be a gift. It over ran the 1840 area by nearly 30 but no big deal cause I fully thought 1834 should trade after the break of that August low finally came. (I still call bullshit on that cause I think it missed its mark by 15-30)

In January of 2015 this market made a 2 week double top that bugged the crap out of me. This morning I revisited that area. Upon doing so I simply added a Gann line coming off the high just before the FOMC (2064). Low and behold it tagged it almost as perfect as it could this past Wednesday at 1812. This line is based on trading days and since we know there are 250ish you can do that math.

When I talked about a lower low being a gift I thought we should rally 90-120 from that area and possibly more if it got lower. On the chart you will see I said I thought 1929 should trade on FOMC day. At this juncture I would say it looks pretty feasible.

Anyway this is just going to be the weekend post cause I wanna put something new up Monday night ahead of FOMC after we see what Monday brings. A gap and go in either direction could change things dramatically.


Sunday, January 17, 2016

Week of January 18th, 2016

I think I have made it clear that I am as bearish as anybody. At this juncture I want to throw out some caution to the bears. I am not saying we can't tag lower but suggesting the preservation of your hard earned money. Just my thought here going forward over the next couple weeks since I don't expect to have much time to track this daily action.

I was conservatively bearish at the end of December. It was important for me to see 1900 break ahead of FOMC this month. I got that and then some. Under my scenario I merely needed to see the break of the August low before February to stay out of hibernation. If this was the low then I need it to be retested within 2 weeks of this next higher high. I would consider anything around 1840 to be a gift.

I think we can rally about 120 off this low or more if it comes from lower. What I want to see is a higher high this week then a retest of around 1929 before making the FOMC high. I am NOT chasing the long just to be clear. If and when I do it won't be until FOMC and it will be a tight chase. I think it will be important to keep an eye on the high from the 7th. It can go higher than this but protection is necessary at this juncture. After that the safest short would probably come on the break of the FOMC low. Get me back below 1904 again and I say game on into the end of February to mid March.

Went back a little farther on the daily and tried not to clutter it too much.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

January 14, 2016

I am not going to be lengthy this evening. KISS as they say.

As I look at the charts the market appears to be under just a little bit of selling pressure here (Sarc). All the market has to do is set the next line. I truly believe this was done off the June 2013 low when it managed the 1991 high in July of 2014. There was an upper line in the sand off that low and that is when it was breached assuring us of higher.

Now we are in a position where everyone is looking for a bounce. I believe there is an excavator doing its work. That work is to back fill. The talk of that line off Oct 2014 and August 2015 seems irrelevant to me at this juncture. Mainly because I don't believe August got to finish its work thanks to yet another rule the TBTF caused. I think the rules are or have changed and you either sit and wait or take a risk. Trying to bottom pick a true change in trend can be hazardous to your financial well being.

I will close by saying this isn't how we want to bounce off today's low so I will continue looking lower and take advantage of what opportunities present themselves. I thought we could see an FOMC high based on the selling but if I look closer I can also see where 1929 can present a problem if this selling continues.

Lines on the current chart are a work in progress simply because I don't think we have seen the bottom yet. We are more than likely getting close, I am just in no mood to buy. I know this is hindsight but yesterday and more so last night when I was watching ES I wanted to state I thought we needed a higher high immediately followed by a lower low...got that all in 1 day!


Sunday, January 10, 2016

Week of January 11, 2016

It was an ugly start to 2016. I did not look at any final statistics historically but am sure some of you did.

I posted some charts on the last thread and found most to be at a critical juncture. It is what I would consider a do or die situation for most. A bounce is actually a bit difficult to put a number on right here. I will say that I think if we break down 1890 this week that I don't believe the future is bright for the bulls.

I had a conservative time frame about hitting 1900 before FOMC this month. The market almost did this in the first week. During this bull the market has managed to retest it's open at some point during the month so keep this in mind going forward. The rally should look like a rip your face off due to short covering so it could manage this fairly quick even if we do touch that 1890-1900 area Monday. I am still looking lower regardless. I still expect a retest of at least the February 2014 low and would suffice for anything between 1750-1770ish. Earnings kick off this week so something else to watch for opportunity.

Aside from Monday I am not going to have a lot of time during the week unless the cold changes others mind sets. Good luck and Keep 'Em Green!
Edit:
I have not posted this since its first draft and before I do I want to share another thought that just occurred to me. I was all about the FOMC highs in 2015 and as I stared more at charts due to my expectations I am expecting lower ahead of the Fed. My thought is we are in for a reversal off the norm. Where we land will probably determine price but at this moment I believe the FOMC high either that week or the following (Monday or Tuesday) will either be around the 1962 level and if that breaks there is a good chance at either the Sept FOMC high or to really mess things up the October close around 2060 - 2080. If it breaks and closes above the 1962 level you put your stop there and then chase it tight. Be ready for anything around that 1955-66 level. I will post that daily chart in the thread

I stated I expected to add some lower lines to this chart. This is the recent weekly and shows that point of infliction upon the market. Due to a conversation with Eddy I added that extra down trend channel line off the October 2014 low. Vertical lines are end of year. I put Friday's low on to show the intersect. I have no faith in the August low from a line perspective. Once we break lower I will clean this up.

Thursday, January 7, 2016

Worst Start Ever

Well so far we are off to the worst start ever to begin a year.

There isn't any reason to get lengthy here I just wanted something new to close out the week. Something new will be put up over the weekend before Futures open Sunday night.

I tried to bring the weekly chart into something I hope one could see. I only added the little line off the 1871.91 September low. Again, due to breakers I see no reason to look at the August low. Vertical lines are simply the next 2 FOMC meetings. The off color line is the one added and suggests to be careful long until ya can break and close around the 1980 level. This of course will most likely be next week. Other than that bulls just have to hope to keep that line directly under this last candle intact on the Friday close.

I said I expected 1900 before the next FOMC and that lower red dashed line sits around 1755 (Where it meets the FOMC vertical in January)


Saturday, January 2, 2016

January Week 1 2016

As we started out 2015 I had been looking for either a 2nd or 3rd quarter high. My thesis was that if it topped in the 2nd quarter it would likely make a retest in the 3rd. As I look at the chart I would venture to say it came close enough when it retested in November. When QE3 was announced this market corrected into November of 2012 and never looked back.

Early in 2015 the plan was to stalk the bull into the 2150-2173 and ultimately that 2214 price. We all obviously know where it has at least temporarily ended. In my opinion (And I am sure many of yours) this 2134.72 has to be taken out if we are going to look higher. I am not a fundamentalist when it comes to the market but I do know you cannot pay debt with nothing.

I am a revolution / fib guy for the most part. I have talked enough about "225" and 45 degree prices not to bore you with too much shit here. I will simply tell you that the lines on my weekly chart are based on the May 2013 and May 2015 highs (447.54 or just under 225x2). If you do the fib math with 61.8 you will find a revolution is actually 222.48 so rounding up a couple points for the next move is feasible in my book and close enough. Where these prices start and stop are not under our control. When we made the 1560.33 low in June of 2013 the plan was to see if they could exceed the 45 degree price and they did so a year later. Our last significant low is now at 1737.92 in my book. We have not touched that 45 degree price(2213.91) in what is now approaching 2 years. A sign of weakness if you ask me. I expect to retest this level by March which means August's low is not going to hold the way I see it. The Fed and PPT will probably put up a good fight for as long as they can and since they have implemented circuit breakers there isn't any reason to think they won't. They proved this back in August. I don't think they can take back their humungous interest rate hike and implement QE4 in the last year of a presidential term. That would be absurd in my book.

I am bearish / neutral into 2016. I think the year will probably end somewhere around the December high of 2013 but also feel that could be optimistic. There is just too much HFT and news crap that drives algo's for me to get as bearish as I would like to here. I will wait and see how they handle the 2k level from below first. Ya can't leave thinly traded price levels behind...

I wish everyone a Happy and Prosperous 2016.



Weekly Chart back to near the October 2011 low: (1370.58 high included)
I know it is a little bit busy and condensed. For now I am only concerned with the solid blue and that little lime green dashed line below. I marked a spot I am expecting that retest of feeling that is has to find that lower dotted red line at least 1 more time.