Tuesday, November 24, 2015

11-25-15

Happy thanksgiving all.  

Looking up I see that 2099 weekly gap from a few weeks ago still open.  But but but, we also have that 1951 weekly gap from a few weeks ago still open too.  The only two weekly SPX gaps still open in almost two years.

In terms of price patterns, we had one big down week a few weeks ago followed by the biggest up week in quite awhile immediately afterwards.  That big down week the week of November 9th was the only week since October 5th to see more than 25 down as a max down.  That's a pretty strong bullish showing.  So maybe Caldaro is right and 2200 is around the corner.

I've a small quibble with it besides 1951 below.  We've talked about it all year.  2138 is the big fib, and its still standing.  Take it out on a close and you might see a nice blowoff stampede.  In fact, it almost seems certain doesn't it?  Maybe that's how they'll get us.

Last week was the monthly expiration.  In the three weeks after monthly expirations for the past few months, we've recently been seeing significantly more down than up.  The exception among the last five was October. The max downs in three weeks following expiration working backwards from October were down 16, 86, 104, 63 and 66.  Max ups were 83, 62, 22, 6, 20.  If that's any guide, I'd say the odds were looking down more than up.

So my call is 2099 likely as an obvious near term upside target.  But I'm really not looking above there by much, and no matter how high we get, I'm still looking for that 1951 in the next month or two.

Yikes!

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

11-11-15

This looks like the swing high to me, but I have to say I would not be particularly surprised to see one more higher high.  For now I think it most likely to close the gap in the SPX 2050-60 area, and I would expect a bounce from there.  That bounce could be quite high, as it appears we've come off the peak in a falling megaphone, but for now the best I can say is to follow momentum and watch the Bollenger bands.

Keep in mind that this came up from the August lows in a megaphone, so we very well could visit the lows again (and then some), but for now I'm interested in the reaction when it gets to the 1950 area- if this is some kind of repeat of 2011, you're going to want to hold onto your hats, because we could see a few hundred points tacked onto the already nose-bleed ATH.

So, 2400 or 1700, take your pick.