Wednesday, October 28, 2015

October 28, 2015 (FOMC again)


I thought it was time for a new post. I have really just been too busy to be active but hope the rain today changes that for me and plan to be around for them to announce no hike yet again.
I missed my mark by hoping for the low last week but since we have made such a strong run into FOMC I have to believe it comes to an end. During the first part of the year they managed to find the 2108-2114 mark at every meeting. In September the high mark was 2021 and the weekly close was 1958. Above I think the blue line and 2080 is the spot to watch.
I am still holding NFLX TWTR and SPY puts as well as long VXX and TLT. A bit under water on the NFLX and SPY at the moment but I am being stubborn and holding my belief until that breach over head. I will give today a chance to play out before making any further positions. I will catch up all of ya by around lunch time with any luck.
Update Daily Chart through yesterday (Nov 5)

Monday, October 19, 2015

Tuesday, Tuesday, Tuesday, turn around now won't ya?

Hope all y'alls are doing well.  What I'm seeing first is economic, and despite my "we're out of workers" thing, I keep hearing about more highly-paid workers who are getting booted or squeezed.  So maybe my "we're out of workers" thing won't work.

Anyway, for studies here's what we have.  Third time this year S&P has been up three weeks straight.  Each time followed by selloffs.  Bradley on 10/17 at extremes (multi-month highs Friday and today), but these seem like they are getting bustier so maybe that's nothing.  NYMO divergence today (NYMO -12, S&P up fractionally).  That S&P weekly gap from a few weeks ago at 1951 still open and those mostly close within the following week or two.  5 of the last 14 expirations saw two week highs afterwards on the first monday, and 3 of the last 14 saw em on the first wednesday.  Plus there's that NYMO for -100 lurking too, saying we get below 1867 again before its said and done.

And so on.

So yeah, my money is that we should see SPX 1951 this week, and if not then at some point in the next 5 weeks.  Since we just hit the Fib 61% retrace area of the drop from 2134 to 1867, its possible what comes next is a wave 3 down, but if not then maybe a c of C down, and if not then maybe a 2 down of 3 of 1 of 5 up (Caldaro stuff).  I'm not really convinced of anything except that we see 1951 in the next week or five, and 1867 in the next month or five.  Clear like mud right?

200ma Updated Chart 10/22
Cleaned this one up a bit since the Oct 2014 low had me intrigued going forward here again

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

October 7, 2015

Fed minutes upon us...

I am not going to get lengthy here. I believe this market has now accomplished what it meant to do and that is to get the bulls excited after a retest at the low that held. Pull them all back in and rip the hide right back off. This looks like a bit more than a short cover rally because they want it to. Eventually I do believe this market is going to find higher but I personally do not feel the time is now. I expect the next move down to wipe out that 1867 low in the same manner the 2044 didn't hold back in July. I have this conviction as part of my plan and am sticking to it.

Having said all this I believe some how from somewhere lower the market will find the 1960ish area again when the FOMC comes around near the end of the month. On the other hand it could only be a market that finds it way back into this 1840-67 area. It has to break above the September FOMC high for any chance on the bullish side. One just has to remember who has the upper hand here and play it accordingly. I believe I have pocket Aces and the Fed ain't holding shit. That's just me though and I only have my account to worry about.

In "short" it is hard to be bearish with so much crap over the last 4-6+ years. I just like to trade what I see and know when to admit it is wrong.
Making it look easy (too much so?)

Monday, October 5, 2015

C wave?

Getting about time for a new post, but I'll keep this short and sweet.

At this point, my best interpretation is that we are in a C wave, and as always there are a few places to watch.  The move up so far looks like a Bat pattern, which would get us to the .886 at 2005 SPX.  There are a few more relationships worth keeping an eye on as well, such as the 224.0 extension just short of that at 1997, and the 314.0 extension up at 2045 if it has a mind to best the 2020 B wave peak.

I would also like to point out what LNB has been saying about the potential for a more durable bottom and that we may be in for much more of a rally.  Certainly could be, so I will be watching for my 5 waves up for C, and I want to see an impulsive decline as well.  If we best the peak that we get to with this leg...  

well I don't suppose I need to draw you a picture do I?