Sunday, December 20, 2015

Christmas Week 2015

First I want to wish everyone a safe and Merry Christmas!

I have been staring at charts since about 4:30 this morning. Honestly I don't know what to make of missing the gap at 2119.21 (July gap) back in November. Now we managed to leave another at 2091.69 in December (so far).

Looking at the week I believe a break of something in the 1986 level just sends us lower. On the flip side of that it could easily just run up and close Thursday's gap at 2041-42 if this happens to be the low Monday (so there is your Santa rally?). This (2041) has been the level I deemed important right from the start of 2015. All I know is we haven't traded enough in the sub 2k range to satisfy me. Without a break of either of these levels I will just wait to pursue anything further. I hope Xmas week allows for a few intraday scalps although things change quickly on me. 

Good luck, Keep 'em Green and Merry Christmas once again.

As I was updating I see ES up to its normal activity and taking out the days highs in order to push this above the next so called level of resistance. Who in their right minds buys this into 2016 at these levels after what they just watched in 2015? I am not saying it can't or won't get above May's high but is this the kind of return you are willing to settle for? Time to visit 2007 (the year not price) if ya wanna make me a believer

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

FOMC December 16, 2015

I promised a new post and here it is:
Typical Fed shit and we have Opex Friday. I didn't get to see much of the action today but I venture to say above today's high and ya ride it out but gotta be sure it clears that 2060 level as well. Downside is pretty much unlimited the way I see it. It is a Fed day I don't know what I should say about it really. Got the back test of the 50 day I saw after it was too late yesterday and perhaps it will try to the 200dma. More overhead than what appears cause at 2070ish rests the middle of the daily BB. SPY Divvy on Friday too and that always tosses a wrench at stuff. I would personally rather find myself chasing a long than taking a chance it just runs from here. 2020 seems a most likely retest to me.

Hourly chart back to the November 3 high.
Just seems weak to me

Sunday, December 6, 2015

December 7, 2015

There isn't anything simple about where we sit heading into FOMC next week. The 2015 FOMC line stills its in the 2114 area and it fits the chart for upside perfectly off the high on the 2nd of December. On the other side of that it has to fill the gap from this past Thursday. This gives us about a 70 point range this could trade in without doing a thing heading into the FOMC Announcement. This doesn't mean it will or won't trade in that range but from where I sit it seems highly probable.

I was stopped out of the 208 December expiration puts at 2078 but I did grab some of this weeks 209's. This is going to work out well for me because the week isn't going to allow me much time to monitor positions. I will start taking profit at a break of 2083 and just sit it out for until near the end of the week. My hope would be this turns out to be a pre-FOMC high or a buying opportunity above that 2119 gap. Sorry I don't have more it just looks and seems tough right here as I stare.