Monday, June 29, 2015

End of Q2 2015

Things are still open to upside but most likely it will wait for this current correction to complete. Lines are basically Gann work on the chart, you have your fibs. How long this lasts will most likely decide its  final target.

As for my opinion I think it is pretty much on target. I remained bullish for as long as I could and the bulls just couldn't produce. They can get it back on track but it shouldn't be as easy without major over night help with all the crap they have now left over head. We have been above 2020 since February and it looks like it could get wiped out here with ease. Price being where it is here at the end of the month and 2nd quarter put things back on track for the longer term view I had. Today's damage is significant.

There are still things going on that don't make sense so just be careful not to get sucked into herd mentality. The weather may break for me here tomorrow so I may take a couple extra days off and do something. I started a position in July 210 calls today but will look to sell those at the gap if it can get there. If it looks weak I will just take what I can get (if it will give it to me)

Fighting to get it back but can they

Sunday, June 28, 2015

June 28, 2015

Q2 coming to a close....

I am going to keep this short and sweet looking at the week ahead. All I really want to point out from a price perspective is that a ton of shit is going on in that range below from 2082-2090. For me it is going to take close below the 2082-2083 to jump on the bearish train and quite honestly from that area is where this could be a rip your face off type of rally going into the middle of the month.
There isn't one thing easy about this aside from the channel trades in my view. The door remains wide open to trap either side. It could get even worse for bears willing to buy the dip if it breaks below the price level I am looking at to short. It could open up the door to below 2k easily. Looking at time and price there is just too much going on into the 1st week of August where wild swings could occur. I maintain the view that the longer it protects that lower channel the higher highs are just waiting. I am currently flat any index trade but can see an opportunity for a swing in one direction or the other coming this week. My thought is to fade the Thursday high or close as things look right now. I would not be a dip buyer if we are near that lower line. A holiday week with a month and quarter coming to a close so perhaps just another short range but it doesn't look like it should be. I still suggest keeping things tight and taking profits on both sides of the trade appropriately.

Off Topic: If you want to argue please find a hell hole to do it in. This IS NOT the place it will be tolerated. Everybody has an opinion although there are times I don't think it is appropriate to share it. There are always 2 sides (or more) to everything so keep this in mind and keep debates civilized...please. Nobody ever wins in these situations but somebody always loses.

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

June 23, 2015

Respect is the only word I have for today. We barely looked back to 1560 and here we sit consolidating above 2000-2040-2070 for over 6 months now....

Update June 25th: Reality check in need here? We were down a whopping 6 points today not 60. We are 33 points from an all time high and 25 trading days away from it. During the past week we were within 5 of this very high. We are still 30 points above the low made a week ago Monday. HALF WAY is where we sit and there is room to 2082-87 without any serious shake up here from a bulls point of view. I just don't want anybody getting sucked in until it is time. From there it could be more profitable than most of the targets you are hearing about. I am bias here about price and don't need a new high but this thing is repetitious to say the least

Sunday, June 21, 2015

June 21, 2015

Well we go into the week knowing the Russell 2K and the Nasdaq made new highs in the past week. The last 3 FOMC release dates have all led to a tag of near 2107 whether from below or above. This level has become much stronger support and resistance now. March, April, and May highs have all set up an upper trend line (Nice FOMC coincidence?) that has been tagged in the previous 3 months so it is almost a necessity it does so in June or .....

I think the channels (orange colored on my chart) are fairly obvious. The line off the March low aimed right at 2109.69 this past Friday. The 4pm tick was 2109.69 before settling 30 cents higher for the close. The low this week wasn't quite as perfect off the February low but what is? These 2 lows seem very significant from a weekly view. You can see what has happened when it gains and closes above the line off the March low. I will expect the same thing to happen below the line off the February low if it will ever break it down.

The game plan for the week is to play the high and low of last week with the fibs. 127.2 and 161.8 overhead and the obvious standards. Nothing else seems to matter beyond the trend lines above and below. I think they have become more than obvious regardless of your trading style. I put these lines (rounded) for the week on the chart at 2082 and 2120. What you do with them is your decision. I am not a bull nor bear but as you all know I am looking higher until that lower line gets violated like a choir boy at a Catholic church. For the most part a 2 week high is followed by a 2 week low and especially at double tops and bottoms. If this double bottom leads to the 2 week rally it should find the March - May upper trend line and I believe when it peeks above it, my target(s) come into play. If you add 50 points to the February high (based on how the consolidation highs are happening) it will target the 2169 level ahead of the end of July. I say this because I think it would be in the form of a blow off type move and could easily be exceeded. If we were to see a high going into the first week of July I would expect the end of July to resemble December to some degree. Just my view looking forward without trying to get caught up with the cycle highs and lows.

Update 6/22 The market fell just a touch short of the upper line I have drawn but I do notice it has picked up on the next line I have forecast and closed right on it. Going forward this could prove to be a new support and resistance line...for how long would be the question

Thursday, June 18, 2015

June 19, 2015

We seem to be at an interesting juncture here. From a Gann perspective today was Trading Day 216 and Calendar Day 315 from the low last August. I only mention this because it was a near perfect 360 x .618 from a price perspective. I also mention it due to the 9 vibration. Going into the week after the 4th of July we are also looking at 180 TD off the October low and 225 from that August low. The following week is 360 TD off the February 2014 low. Over the weekend and into next week we are also 500 trading days off the June 2013 low and this past Sunday was 720 Calendar Days off the same (ES pretty much squared that up at 2060). I just found all of this interesting since I am trying to learn.

On the day we punched what would be the next growing line of support / resistance then pulled back to close pretty much on it. If we were to break below the open on Fed day it may open up something to around 2078 but I wouldn't be fruity on the short side until that lower line broke off the February and June lows. Below that it is hard to say what could really open up. Things are tight here and if we break up and retest the ATH I would put good odds on 2150+ going into the 4th of July fireworks time frame. This would probably be an opportunity to short but my guess is not for long due to that 2 week window I believe is open. I can find anything from 2173-2209ish going into the middle to end of July. Most of you know I am waiting to test at least one of these purple dashed lines overhead. There is some significance in the 2110 area at the close tomorrow. If we start to correct later in the day it would probably lead into weakness Monday barring any news event.

Sunday, June 14, 2015

Week of June 15. 2015 More Fed Bullshit to come

I had plans to post as many charts on other things as I could yesterday but as usual something unexpected arose yet again. I will post these along the way in this thread. I mainly wanted to look at AAPL, AMZN, GDX, NFLX, and TLT in general.

Nothing ever works the same in a trend of either direction. I cannot find where this is any different than last summer to this point. Instead of seeing a deeper correction like we did in April of 2014 we have simply been consolidating the mess since around December. As far as I am concerned it doesn't get bearish until that lower dashed line on the chart has a close below it. This would open the door to 2040 and beyond. Most of you know I take a major bottom and work a 45 degree bullish price from that. I am currently working on the February 2014 low yet to this point. This price would project 2213.91. The last time was the June 2014 low but it only took about 13 months (around 260 trading days) to test 1987 falling just a couple points short at 1985 around the 4th of July last year. Once that price broke to the upside it projected higher and has done even more since.

This time around it is about 100 trading days more going into mid July at the 2214 price. We are having difficulties yet keep managing to squeak just a tad higher like February, April, and most recently May. I believe there is a 1597 Fibonacci Time Series date around this time frame as well. This has got to be the week of determining direction. With FOMC on Wednesday the catalyst is there for a push. I am still leaning bullish for new highs but am not disregarding any of the obvious when it comes to the downside. I am expecting a couple of dull and choppy days and perhaps testing the bottom of the channel ahead of the Fed. This would probably be the worse place to be in relationship to price at 2pm Wednesday. If we broke it downside I would be in high favor of chasing it in the same direction with a stop on the line. Upside would be a no brainer. We also have Quad / Triple Expiration crap to deal with during the week. In short I wouldn't get overly extended in either direction until you see the HFT crap on Wednesday. The Fed will most likely say with our poor timing of what we thought should be happening in the economy right now we cannot see reason to do anything until at least September as our manipulation of government releases has been on track but thus far the banks haven't gained as much as we would like to see. (Windy sentence intended to mimic the air bags).

Fell a few cents short of the 2107 today. Closing Friday up near or above 2110 is something I would consider bullish but is also a great place for a reversal

Sunday, June 7, 2015

Week of June 8, 2015

Things are about as tough as ever here so don't expect anything decisive as far as direction from me. My thought is about how the market is using these lows near the beginning of the month as support. January gave us a low in the first week then retested it near the middle of the month. February was a low the first week, March the middle, April and May both in the beginning. I would think this thing has to test that light green up trend line on the chart. It also looks apparent that a break of the Friday low spells trouble for the bulls but how much? For now we have basically done 50 points in 10 days since the 2134.72 print.

My gut, my eyes, and of course my target all say higher yet and I think they are setting this up for the FOMC date as per the norm. If we can regain that little light green line on the chart I would assume this is correct. The target then would be the double line area and the FOMC should punch it so we can tag the upper. With Opex and FOMC the same week we are going to have to watch this carefully going into the 4th of July. There is a higher high that is possible even here. I realize things are very weak internally but with all the crap up and down this could continue. The best advice I have is to be cautious until we see a break in the trend(s).