Sunday, December 20, 2015

Christmas Week 2015

First I want to wish everyone a safe and Merry Christmas!

I have been staring at charts since about 4:30 this morning. Honestly I don't know what to make of missing the gap at 2119.21 (July gap) back in November. Now we managed to leave another at 2091.69 in December (so far).

Looking at the week I believe a break of something in the 1986 level just sends us lower. On the flip side of that it could easily just run up and close Thursday's gap at 2041-42 if this happens to be the low Monday (so there is your Santa rally?). This (2041) has been the level I deemed important right from the start of 2015. All I know is we haven't traded enough in the sub 2k range to satisfy me. Without a break of either of these levels I will just wait to pursue anything further. I hope Xmas week allows for a few intraday scalps although things change quickly on me. 

Good luck, Keep 'em Green and Merry Christmas once again.

As I was updating I see ES up to its normal activity and taking out the days highs in order to push this above the next so called level of resistance. Who in their right minds buys this into 2016 at these levels after what they just watched in 2015? I am not saying it can't or won't get above May's high but is this the kind of return you are willing to settle for? Time to visit 2007 (the year not price) if ya wanna make me a believer

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

FOMC December 16, 2015

I promised a new post and here it is:
Typical Fed shit and we have Opex Friday. I didn't get to see much of the action today but I venture to say above today's high and ya ride it out but gotta be sure it clears that 2060 level as well. Downside is pretty much unlimited the way I see it. It is a Fed day I don't know what I should say about it really. Got the back test of the 50 day I saw after it was too late yesterday and perhaps it will try to the 200dma. More overhead than what appears cause at 2070ish rests the middle of the daily BB. SPY Divvy on Friday too and that always tosses a wrench at stuff. I would personally rather find myself chasing a long than taking a chance it just runs from here. 2020 seems a most likely retest to me.

Hourly chart back to the November 3 high.
Just seems weak to me

Sunday, December 6, 2015

December 7, 2015

There isn't anything simple about where we sit heading into FOMC next week. The 2015 FOMC line stills its in the 2114 area and it fits the chart for upside perfectly off the high on the 2nd of December. On the other side of that it has to fill the gap from this past Thursday. This gives us about a 70 point range this could trade in without doing a thing heading into the FOMC Announcement. This doesn't mean it will or won't trade in that range but from where I sit it seems highly probable.

I was stopped out of the 208 December expiration puts at 2078 but I did grab some of this weeks 209's. This is going to work out well for me because the week isn't going to allow me much time to monitor positions. I will start taking profit at a break of 2083 and just sit it out for until near the end of the week. My hope would be this turns out to be a pre-FOMC high or a buying opportunity above that 2119 gap. Sorry I don't have more it just looks and seems tough right here as I stare.






Tuesday, November 24, 2015

11-25-15

Happy thanksgiving all.  

Looking up I see that 2099 weekly gap from a few weeks ago still open.  But but but, we also have that 1951 weekly gap from a few weeks ago still open too.  The only two weekly SPX gaps still open in almost two years.

In terms of price patterns, we had one big down week a few weeks ago followed by the biggest up week in quite awhile immediately afterwards.  That big down week the week of November 9th was the only week since October 5th to see more than 25 down as a max down.  That's a pretty strong bullish showing.  So maybe Caldaro is right and 2200 is around the corner.

I've a small quibble with it besides 1951 below.  We've talked about it all year.  2138 is the big fib, and its still standing.  Take it out on a close and you might see a nice blowoff stampede.  In fact, it almost seems certain doesn't it?  Maybe that's how they'll get us.

Last week was the monthly expiration.  In the three weeks after monthly expirations for the past few months, we've recently been seeing significantly more down than up.  The exception among the last five was October. The max downs in three weeks following expiration working backwards from October were down 16, 86, 104, 63 and 66.  Max ups were 83, 62, 22, 6, 20.  If that's any guide, I'd say the odds were looking down more than up.

So my call is 2099 likely as an obvious near term upside target.  But I'm really not looking above there by much, and no matter how high we get, I'm still looking for that 1951 in the next month or two.

Yikes!

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

11-11-15

This looks like the swing high to me, but I have to say I would not be particularly surprised to see one more higher high.  For now I think it most likely to close the gap in the SPX 2050-60 area, and I would expect a bounce from there.  That bounce could be quite high, as it appears we've come off the peak in a falling megaphone, but for now the best I can say is to follow momentum and watch the Bollenger bands.

Keep in mind that this came up from the August lows in a megaphone, so we very well could visit the lows again (and then some), but for now I'm interested in the reaction when it gets to the 1950 area- if this is some kind of repeat of 2011, you're going to want to hold onto your hats, because we could see a few hundred points tacked onto the already nose-bleed ATH.

So, 2400 or 1700, take your pick.


Wednesday, October 28, 2015

October 28, 2015 (FOMC again)

FOMC Day

I thought it was time for a new post. I have really just been too busy to be active but hope the rain today changes that for me and plan to be around for them to announce no hike yet again.
I missed my mark by hoping for the low last week but since we have made such a strong run into FOMC I have to believe it comes to an end. During the first part of the year they managed to find the 2108-2114 mark at every meeting. In September the high mark was 2021 and the weekly close was 1958. Above I think the blue line and 2080 is the spot to watch.
I am still holding NFLX TWTR and SPY puts as well as long VXX and TLT. A bit under water on the NFLX and SPY at the moment but I am being stubborn and holding my belief until that breach over head. I will give today a chance to play out before making any further positions. I will catch up all of ya by around lunch time with any luck.
Update Daily Chart through yesterday (Nov 5)

Monday, October 19, 2015

Tuesday, Tuesday, Tuesday, turn around now won't ya?

Hope all y'alls are doing well.  What I'm seeing first is economic, and despite my "we're out of workers" thing, I keep hearing about more highly-paid workers who are getting booted or squeezed.  So maybe my "we're out of workers" thing won't work.

Anyway, for studies here's what we have.  Third time this year S&P has been up three weeks straight.  Each time followed by selloffs.  Bradley on 10/17 at extremes (multi-month highs Friday and today), but these seem like they are getting bustier so maybe that's nothing.  NYMO divergence today (NYMO -12, S&P up fractionally).  That S&P weekly gap from a few weeks ago at 1951 still open and those mostly close within the following week or two.  5 of the last 14 expirations saw two week highs afterwards on the first monday, and 3 of the last 14 saw em on the first wednesday.  Plus there's that NYMO for -100 lurking too, saying we get below 1867 again before its said and done.

And so on.

So yeah, my money is that we should see SPX 1951 this week, and if not then at some point in the next 5 weeks.  Since we just hit the Fib 61% retrace area of the drop from 2134 to 1867, its possible what comes next is a wave 3 down, but if not then maybe a c of C down, and if not then maybe a 2 down of 3 of 1 of 5 up (Caldaro stuff).  I'm not really convinced of anything except that we see 1951 in the next week or five, and 1867 in the next month or five.  Clear like mud right?

200ma Updated Chart 10/22
Cleaned this one up a bit since the Oct 2014 low had me intrigued going forward here again

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

October 7, 2015

Fed minutes upon us...

I am not going to get lengthy here. I believe this market has now accomplished what it meant to do and that is to get the bulls excited after a retest at the low that held. Pull them all back in and rip the hide right back off. This looks like a bit more than a short cover rally because they want it to. Eventually I do believe this market is going to find higher but I personally do not feel the time is now. I expect the next move down to wipe out that 1867 low in the same manner the 2044 didn't hold back in July. I have this conviction as part of my plan and am sticking to it.

Having said all this I believe some how from somewhere lower the market will find the 1960ish area again when the FOMC comes around near the end of the month. On the other hand it could only be a market that finds it way back into this 1840-67 area. It has to break above the September FOMC high for any chance on the bullish side. One just has to remember who has the upper hand here and play it accordingly. I believe I have pocket Aces and the Fed ain't holding shit. That's just me though and I only have my account to worry about.

In "short" it is hard to be bearish with so much crap over the last 4-6+ years. I just like to trade what I see and know when to admit it is wrong.
Making it look easy (too much so?)

Monday, October 5, 2015

C wave?

Getting about time for a new post, but I'll keep this short and sweet.

At this point, my best interpretation is that we are in a C wave, and as always there are a few places to watch.  The move up so far looks like a Bat pattern, which would get us to the .886 at 2005 SPX.  There are a few more relationships worth keeping an eye on as well, such as the 224.0 extension just short of that at 1997, and the 314.0 extension up at 2045 if it has a mind to best the 2020 B wave peak.


I would also like to point out what LNB has been saying about the potential for a more durable bottom and that we may be in for much more of a rally.  Certainly could be, so I will be watching for my 5 waves up for C, and I want to see an impulsive decline as well.  If we best the peak that we get to with this leg...  

well I don't suppose I need to draw you a picture do I?
GLTA

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Fiscal year end upcoming...

As I step back and look at the weekly chart versus the daily I can't help but to keep looking lower. Bulls love their hammer candles like the ones printed the week of February 7th and October 17th in 2014. Have you paid attention to the one printed 2 weeks ago off the FOMC high?

Below is the weekly chart again and to me it looks as though the line in the sand for this week is around the 1885 level. The bulls are going to have to recapture last Monday's open for any kind of chance to get the push higher. This past week closed on the line off the Feb and Oct 2014 lows. This just doesn't scream buy to this guy. If the bulls can't save that 1885 level last October's low seems inevitable.

On the bullish side of things you do have the Fiscal year, Quarter, and month all coming to an end this week. Bears can keep this in mind for a little protection on the sanity scale. Keep it Simple (stupid).


Thursday Update: SPX seems to have tagged the 1939-40 area via ES overnight. On the day the bulls have to hope it can hold the close of yesterday to expect anything higher. I was stopped out of half my shorts yesterday (profitable from 2003) but my level to add may not get hit today cause it was last night. If the market would cooperate it would find the overnight high again and give me my fill at 1932.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

September 22, 2015

As I look at the chart this morning the first thing I notice is that ES is trying to hold where it should. SPX needs to break down the 1940 level today to drive it into that 1900-1920 range. I fully believe it has to test the monthly low or at least the daily low close for September. I actually question how low the market would have gone back on August 24th if it were not for pre-market circuit breakers. The reaction off the FOMC high still only managed a back test 40 lower than that days high and was rejected at the channel line I have coming off the November 2012 low. This does not appear bullish and seems like the current bull / bear line. I am posting the daily chart I updated over the weekend. I have only gone back about 5 or 6 months on this one to make my lines a bit more clear.
Thursday update:
I think on the day (Thursday) it would be important for the market to try to catch the support at 1916-1918. If this is lost it most likely revisits at least the September low. There is probably a scalp upside coming into next week but personally I am not interested in that and will continue with the shorts

 Friday update: Satisfied what I was looking for with retest of monthly low and the low daily close for September. At this point it has to break and hold 1950 for the bulls. I stated last week I felt 1972 was a necessary target before 10/2. The market is going to need to hold here for that test. Anyway I would say a near perfect tag of the next line downward trend line was made yesterday. Lower uptrend lines subject to change when we bottom

Friday, September 18, 2015

Banana peels for Bears

Just a word of caution for bears, which I very much am, but this drop and correction of the last few weeks bears quite a resemblance to the drop in 2011, and if that continues, we should see some respectful bounces from the daily BB's before working our way thru them.  I saw some uber-bearish scenarios around, and that could be, but unless we simply crash past the daily lower lines, then we could be seeing a nice set of stair-step waves to a low in the 1700's rather than bear-maggedon.

                                                                                    2011:

Today:

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Short and Sweet with a hint of Downside

The biggest question in my mind is whether this is a 4th wave we're bouncing around in, or a wave 2, but I think the idea of wave 2 is a bit premature and much lower odds at this time (because it implies a meltdown of a size I don't think realistic yet).  All things considered, such as proportionality, shape, location within channels, etc, lead me to believe that we are either still in a 4th wave or have finished it and are starting down in wave 5.

The XABCD layout I'm showing is a crab pattern that targets 1789, and while the ideal endpoint for wave 5 would be on Sept 22, I suspect we get the lions share done more quickly with some bouncing around at the bottom to mop up the last few subwaves into that date.  Also keep in mind that there is a Bradley date on Sept 17 (Fed day), and another one on the 23rd, so we may see some pin action off from these markers.

There are potential ST bullish patterns, of course, and this interpretation will be nixed should we get back above 1993, so we'll know pretty quick whether this is right or not (first target 2018). The post I did back on August 27 (big C wave, a la 2011) is still on the table as well, and I expect to buy the dip somewhere around point D.

I'm sticking with this crab pattern for now, simply because we've made it to the right side of the channel, the move from Wednesday's high came down in 5 impulsive waves, and we've gone sideways in 3 overlapping waves since.


(Sidenote:  While set-up of the crab pattern is there, it will take braking the 1867 low to actually activate target D.)

Monday, September 7, 2015

Labor Day 2015

Staring at the charts nothing seems obvious other than oversold levels are on us. My personal opinion going into FOMC next week is that we won't see price above the 1980 level and fully expect to test 1900 minimum to the downside. The line (red dashed) for me on the week is pretty much the same as last week but slightly higher in the 1935-40 range. Above this area you are probably okay long but a break of this level is bearish in my view. To the upside I think you rely on taking profit when presented the opportunity. I am looking for a lower low before a more sustained bounce occurs.

Since the end of March there really hasn't been a sustained rally. So although we made a higher high in May it wasn't as strong as price may have indicated. Even at the low we only managed a rally for a few days then followed by a few more selling. I am not saying we aren't capable of getting a sustained rally but until this market finds a bottom I wouldn't expect it. A lower low just seems necessary based on charts and indicators and I would expect it ahead of FOMC. I have lower targets but for the time being I would settle for anything about 30 below that 1867 level and perhaps it will only be 15 to the 1850 level. I know my upper end target doesn't allow for Yikes 1993+ level on the week but perhaps that is what a change of trend does. Eventually we need a back test to 2040+ but I wouldn't bet on it until that 93 area above is broke.

1935 area needs to be saved today if the bulls have any chance. I fully believe a break of this level sends us to 1900 minimum (Thursday 9/10/2015)

Monday, August 31, 2015

September 1, 2015

Sorry I missed you guys on Monday. Some stuff came up over the weekend and it couldn't be avoided. I noticed I didn't miss much. I am not sure how much I will be around on Tuesday but should be able to check in now and then at worse.

As I am writing this the futures are down about 25-27. I thought the market had to at least test the Tuesday open last week at a minimum. It appears that a break and especially a close below the 1932-33 area would send it happily on its way to do just that. This will be a price level I monitor closely however in case that is where the next bounce wants to originate before turning lower again. I remain in the bear camp until proven otherwise. I know there are plenty of gaps overhead and am sure at some point they get filled but for now I remain patient in getting long for more than a scalp.

Area to watch for on the close is range from 1920-1934 in my opinion on the low end.

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Throwing stuff...

'Bout time for a new post, and I wish I had something earth shattering to give you, but such is life.  There is one thing that has struck me about this sell-off, and that is the similarity between the current decline since May, and the sell-off we had back in 2011.  I frankly have no idea if this is an accurate analog for the current period, but it was something that jumped out at me as I watched it unfold, so here you go.

The three legged nature of the A & B in 2011 had me scratching my head, and frankly, at the time I was heavily influenced by EWI and their counts, and was all geared up for (oh god, I hate to even say it) P3.

Yep, sorry but true.  The 5 wave decline had me thinking we were set to plumb new depths, but that ain't what happened.  I throw this against the wall to see if it sticks.  A cautionary word, just in case.

2011:

Today:

Sunday, August 23, 2015

Week of 8/24/2015 (was last week a week too late or a week too early)

200ma: As far as the FOMC stuff goes I thought the inability for the Fed to find the 2108+ weekly close after the July meeting was key. Every other month since March this year the market managed a close above this level then a slightly higher high before a correction occurred. In July the close was under this level and has led to what we are currently seeing. On the break of the June close I thought it was game on but as per the norm they had to play their little game. This one left the bulls holding the bag. The degree of which this correction is taking surprises me a little but when you look at all that virgin space it really shouldn't. 5 months of coiling and going nowhere finally snapped. I only looked at this area because as we all know this is nothing more than manipulation by the Fed and CB's.

Yikes:
After the last 3 days, I'm seeing NYMO at -72ish (lowest since December), TRIN at 2.92 (highest since early July), New Highs minus New Lows at -1013 for the month so far (lowest since 1998), and VIX up by 184.7% for the week (biggest weekly increase ever).  And so on. Almost all in the past 3 days. Total put to call (CPC)at 1.69 Friday is the highest since February 2007 (h/t ukarlewitz).  That's gotta qualify as a crash of some sorts.

To be very, very clear, what I'm saying is that any buying here is very speculative knife-catching.  You do not buy a crash until it looks like its properly done crashing, including retests.  But if you are looking for something speculative, well here ya go...

From ukarlewitz, the SPX decline of >7.2% now is something that has happened all but three years (in the 1990s) since 1980.  Below 2000 almost had to happen at some point before Christmas.  

The crash also followed a Bradley extreme low at 2052 two weeks ago (more below), and from my Bradley study this would suggest we get above 2103 this week or else its the first failure of a reaction extreme 5 or more days out in years.  An upcoming Bradley this week on 8/27 is 100/100 on long term, and below 1970 (in the window) will be an extreme.  2015's yearly SPX pivot is 1963, so theres a decent target for a lower low to set the Bradley extreme below 1970 this week.  

Also, an odds-based DSI spread between bonds and SPX >85 noted by Chad Gassaway suggests an average 5%+ up expectation this week.  And several weeks in 2011 saw big moves of 5% or more after the initial crash from the July 2011 secondary high.  Indeed, the week of August 22, 2011 saw a max-up of about 6%.  Just about what a super speculative gambler might commit a few shekels to this week.

So a very speculative possibility this week calls for a slightly lower low below 1970 Monday or Tuesday and then a remote and outlandish possibility to somehow see over 2100 by Friday.   That's not going to happen by itself, so presumably any speculation will be a bet on massive CB intervention this week.

And with that, I'm hoping 200 edits this at the top to add some thoughts.  One thing he'd mentioned signalling this drop coming was his Fed week expectations, and I'm really trying my best to understand what he sees there.

Good trading all.

JP

Friday, August 21, 2015

August 21, 2015

I just wanted to toss something up quick due to the lower movement last night. This move over night is taking out the line off the October 2014 low so the move probably isn't done unless they can save this line today. The hope would be to fill the February gap and perhaps bounce off that. How far it bounces may be the biggest question.

The lower line just below yesterday's candle is the 1x1 off the October 2014 low. Typically a break of this would send it to the next line (1x2). There is also a possibility of a shake out below it where it will recapture it quickly.

Sunday, August 16, 2015

August 17, 2015

We approach August option expiration week almost where we started the year. How exciting is that?!? I am in a position where I think I can make an approach without being bias. I only hold some 209.50 puts that expire this upcoming Friday and September 200's as indicated having started in on this past week.

FOMC minutes get released on Wednesday if it means anything at all. SSDD when it comes to this it seems but perhaps this time their verbal garbage will be more direct. My feeling is when a .25% rate hike does finally come it will be bullish at least temporarily. This is one of the criteria I am relying on to get a more substantial correction because without a dip upside is limited in my view. 5% seems like a good cap at this point so how much are they going to benefit doing that from here?

Price juncture where we sit is almost as neutral as I can find it of late. The close we got this past Friday was the one I had looked for the prior week. As I looked at the weekly chart I saw 2 possibilities on the week. The bullish sent us up to tag the upper line once again as has been the norm since the March 2040 low. This would basically fill the gap and get a reaction. If this was somehow able to bleed into the end of the week there is a possible close scenario around the 2118 level that would leave everyone feeling more bullish going into the following week. The bearish side of things suggests a close in the 82-92 or lower range. With all the seemingly bearish behavior of late we have yet to close a week below 2076.

I say flip a coin based on the Friday closing price and to use it this week as your bull / bear line. This market seems to react to both sides of the trade from the 82-87 area so this is where bears will want to see the market trade down to and below. It has been pointed out that option expiration has been bullish (until it isn't). I am not willing to chase upside and will need to see something larger downside to take any new positions. Without a substantial move higher during the month of August I am skeptical about another higher high until 2016 begins. I will look for the FOMC levels again in September before assuming anything. My intermediate term view remains the same but the interference isn't making it easy.

In closing, I find this price difficult so when in doubt....


I am going to use this space to let Yikes and Airyk know they can put up a new post anytime they feel the urge. My permission is definitely not needed. This is a team effort from all.

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

August 12, 2015

Tossing a new post up for the sake of a new one. Everyone here knows I am and have been looking lower. The market has been resilient in giving me the target(s) I have below but I remain bearish until it is wrong. On the other side of that you all know I stayed bullish right up to the last part of June. I still believe there are higher prices on the horizon but until the market suggests a buying opportunity I can't dip my toes. We have consolidated and moved higher most of 2015. These gains are now dissipating albeit slowly.

Up until the July FOMC meeting this market had found a way to close in the 2107-2114 area during that week. We failed to do so in July and this leads me to believe we are in a turn. The next FOMC is in the middle of September and at that time this price again becomes important if this market is to find those higher targets pegged by many of us. 2015 has been a traders market more than one for investors. It is wise to take what it gives you and move on to the next trade. Make a plan and execute it.

By now most of you have seen what the futures did overnight. I just want to point out that gap downs like this with lower lows have a 95% chance of being revisited. Yesterday the market had every chance to do what it did overnight and didn't for whatever reason. The 2072 area is important today (at least for me).

Thursday, August 6, 2015

More questions than answers...

I tend to get too myopic, looking at the SPX/ES most of the time, but while reading an evening update of the Seven Sentinels the other day, I was struck by just how similar the SPX Equal Weight index was to the Dow Industrials.  With a bone to chew on, I started looking closer at the trifecta of the INDU, SPX and SPXEW to see if I could come up with a satisfying EW count for each (I am quite convinced that those of you who do not subscribe to EWT, nor see endless counts disturbing otherwise peaceful dreams, live much happier and productive lives...  but I digress.)

Anyway, I think it's quite likely that after peaking out in May, the Dow has seen its ATH for some time, but I'm not so sure about the SPX.  The Dow, as you'll see on the first chart looks like it has completed (or soon will) 5 waves down in an expanding wedge, probably bottoming in the next couple days if not today.  From there I would expect the typical deep retracement that you tend to get after such a formation.  The second chart shows how 52 week lows and the cumulative advance/decline seem to have a divergence at the low on July 27th, compared to today. The implications of a strong bounce in the Dow would obviously have the SPX driving up to new ATH's, once again thwarting many a bears' dreams of untold riches.

Juxtaposing bullish wave patterns against the incredibly weak internals we've seen in the last few months, and it's hard to believe we could get to new SPX ATH's.  To be honest, I really don't know how we continue with this bull market in the face of such weakening, but this is what I'm seeing.  If it is to fall apart, now is the time...  but calling for doom and calamity has not paid the bills for a long time, so caution is warranted.
(footnote:  the arrows are only indicating potential action, and not specific price levels.)
Happy trading.  :)


Sunday, August 2, 2015

First week of August

Here we are going into the first week of August, having retraced to within 19 points of the Bradley extreme at 2133 in week 2 (column V in the study).  This is actually the lowest retrace for the week of the last six Bradleys, but still more than (I) expected due to the size of the initial move off of 2133.

The Bradley expectation is still for a lower low this week, for two reasons.  One is that in the past three years, only one Bradley reaction extreme has occurred in just five days (column Y in the study), and that was in April 2014.  Two is that  since 2013, twelve extremes happened in the second full week after Bradley, only two in the first full week (also column Y in the study).  If last Monday's low was it, this would be like the reaction after April 6, 2014, with a quicker reaction extreme in only 5 days (in April 2014 five days, April 2015 seven days).

This is also an NFP week.  Five of the past fourteen NFP weeks saw max downs of 40 or more (column H in the NFP study), so an expectation for a lower low this week is not completely outlandish.  However, only one has closed down more than 40, so if we do see below 2064 even for a second this week, a stop on shorts will be in order!

In terms of the potential for an ATH this week, we would require 31+ points, but only one of the past 14 NFP weeks saw a max gain of more than 31 points, and that was in February off of a Bradley low.

So for a game plan this week, I'm looking for 2064 as a lower low, and this is negated of course by anything over 2133.  But if we do see that 2064, that's my only real expectation here (based on Bradley), so after that please don't get caught in any squeeze, and be mindful that it could be considered a C wave of 2 where the next move up is a 3... up!  Hopefully 200 and/or Airyk set me straight above.

Thursday, July 30, 2015

July 30, 2015

I am not going to delve into a bunch of what if's here today. As far as I am concerned the market did what it needed to do on an FOMC day. Higher today wouldn't mean all that much provided it doesn't close at a level above Wednesday. It won't take much downside movement to put selling right back on the table today and I would think they wouldn't want to leave a small gap at this level so I am hoping they fill the close yesterday. A break of 2103-2104 SPX could spell trouble from the bullish side of things.

A nice touch of the line I feel bulls need to gain control of if there is to be more upside.

 Testing that line but can the bulls get it?

Sunday, July 26, 2015

August NFP/Bradley

For the week of July 27th, 2015 the patterns I have are week 1 post-Bradley at an extreme, and pre-NFP. 

BRADLEY
For the week 1 post-Bradley pattern, there are a few things that suggest this week could be ugly at the lows.  First note that last week we saw 56 down from 2133.  56 in the Bradley reaction week is more than any of the five most recent week 1 post-Bradley reactions (see column I in the study).  Looking at five previous instances where we saw MORE than 56 down in week 1, the results are as follows:
70/75/88 (January 2013)
57/99/114 (October 2013)
60/104/110 (February 2014)
77/144/197 (October 2014)
91/116/130 (February 2015)

From the differences between the first number and the second, this suggests a lower low, and by as much as 67 points, with a median of 42 among the five.  This would give us lower low targets this week all the way to 2010 SPX, with a median of 2035 SPX.  Please note that in every successful Bradley pattern listed since 2013, there was a lower low (or higher high) in week 1 post-Bradley, and in all but one successful Bradley pattern listed there was yet even a lower lower low (or higher higher high) in week 2 post-Bradley. 

On the other hand, in terms of bounce potential, please note column L with the max retraces listed.  In these patterns, we sometimes get very close to the Bradley reaction extreme level in week 1 post-Bradley, and off of the most recent June 30, 2015 Bradley extreme we even went beyond the Bradley extreme in week 1 post-Bradley.  For the five instances listed above, the maximum retraces were back within 54, 46, 55, 61, and 71 points.  These instances would suggest that perhaps we get only to something like 2087 (2133 minus 46) in a bounce.

pre-NFP
This week is also a pre-NFP week.  As can be seen in column C of the NFP release study, the last seven pre-NFP weeks have all closed down, with max downs from down (7) to (63), and a median of (33).  This would give us an expected max down this week between 2017 and 2073, with a median expectation of 2047.  

On the other hand, each of the past seven pre-NFP weeks also had max ups between 0 and 20 points.  This would be perfectly consistent with what a bunch here (Eddy, 200) were looking for this week, so something up between 2080 to 2100 at some point this week would be perfectly within expectations.  Note, this would also be consistent with what we have above for the week 1 post-Bradley expectation. 

To summarize and propose a plan based on these patterns, this week I'm looking at 7/31 212 puts again, with the assumption that we get an early bounce.  At 2085 to 2100 I propose scaling into puts, with targets this week below 2040.  This might change a bit based on other data from my usual sources, but for now that's what looks good to me.  Hate to be sorta uber-bearish two weeks straight (three including two weeks ago when I shouldn't have been!), but this week I'm a bear, again.

And just in case, as a stop, I propose a stop out of any puts even one cent above 2100, and reentry once back below 2100.

Good trading all.  I think 200 is going to add something to this, hopefully at the top.


Edited to Add, so given what I'm expecting of perhaps 30 or 40 down this week, it seems SPY 205 is a pretty obvious target given that we closed SPY 208 last week.  There are three SPY gaps left open below from just the past three weeks, and two are just below SPY 205.  Looking at pricing, it seems SPY 209 puts for 7/31 would give the best bang for the buck for such a target, at approximately a triple from 1.33 if looking for an IV of 4.00 (or more) at SPY 205.  So that's what I'll be buying.

Thursday, July 23, 2015

July 23, 2015

I don't plan to have a strong bias as far as direction here. I still have prices overhead that have not been satisfied of which the biggest is the 2173. The way this market behaves to the upside it just has that feeling of any given day if it finally decides it wants it.

We still have that teeny gap left from 2119.21 on the SPX and something close to the 2115 ES level. Last night the ES came close so I don't think there is any reason to think it won't today. The double bottoms amaze but apparently that is where the ebb and flow of corruption prevails. I was looking to fill that gap today or very early Friday at the latest.

Next week we have our fickle FOMC stuff to deal with and as luck would have it 2107 is easily within range at this point. I don't know what the deal is but it appears to be a price FOMC has needed since March. I still expect to find at least that 2100 line on the chart and think once that breaks the bears grab control again. Everything I see and have had aligning still point lower but now we have a very recent price just overhead of major importance if it goes the other way. This is still a take what you can get and run market trade. February has been the only month that got higher by more than 10-12 points than the prior month so if we look at that then we are looking at around that 2140 level even if it decides to pollute the market a bit more by the end of the month.

Now it needs to break that line if bearishness is your thing. Tagged it on Thursday as hoped for. Now it is a matter of closing below it to get to the next (there will be an issue with a mid point as well on its way to it)

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Yikes12 checking in here to get us started for the week of July 20th.  For this post, I'd like to explain a bit about my studies this year on Bradley dates and monthly options expiration dates.  I also include a proposal for this week, which is completely moot if we don't see a high above 2130.

First, Bradley dates.  People blow off the Bradley dates like last week's 7/15 or 7/16 date because they don't always work, and the highs on 7/15 and 7/16 didn't work seeing as how the high of the week was on 7/17.  But what if we used a marker like a requirement for a five week high or low on or very close to the Bradley date in order to expect a reaction?  With that marker, what we have seen since at least the beginning of 2014 is a bunch of Bradley dates that actually worked solidly.  If you want to check for yourself, click on the link at the upper right for Bradley dates and back-test any date against the criteria (minimum 5 week high or low, as well as the reactions).  The study shows results for the week of the extreme, and week 1 after and week 2 after.  In all but one case, of the three weeks, the maximum reaction level was in week 2 after.  An example of a week 2 maximum reaction level was just recently shown this past week at 2129 from the 2056 level on the Bradley extreme low two weeks ago.

Next, monthly options expiration.  This one is easy.  Buy dips (AND NO SHORTING generally) into expiration, both seasonal and regular monthly.  Again, if you want to check for yourself, click on the link at the upper right for seasonal option expiration dates and back-test any date against the criteria.  The criteria is that most expiration dates the past year of any type, and the past 4+ years for seasonal expiration dates, tend to be very close to two and three week highs.  Only 3 of the past 14 were even more than 20 points from three week highs.  The idea is also to find a downward bias coming out of expiration dates.

In a few weeks I'll try to put together a flowchart/algorithm for what I would propose to look for using these studies, just in terms of biasing generally, as I think this information is very actionable.

FOR THIS WEEK specifically, what I would propose is that there is a Bradley date on 7/21 or 7/23 depending on who you ask.  Anything over 2130 is a minimum 5 week high and anything over 2135 is an all time high.  From any such extreme, the Bradley study would suggest a reaction down over the coming weeks, most likely with a maximum reaction two weeks from this week in the NFP week of August 3rd.

There are price patterns to be seen in relation to NFP weeks, but that explanation will have to wait for a later post, perhaps one with a flowchart/algorithm explanation of when these studies would suggest a call bias and when they would suggest a put bias.

One last thing to mention.  People here generally know I'm a fan of Tony Caldaro.  His count is actually making sense now too.  Basically, the way I see it maybe what we get is early weakness this week in a 4th wave correction of 1 up of 3 up of 5 up, and then a 5th wave into that high on 7/23 or so to above 2130 or even 2135.  The studies would suggest if you see any such new all time high on Thursday morning 7/23, that its a sell bias all the way through the NFP Friday in early August.  The Bradley reaction over the next two weeks would be the wave 2 retrace back towards 2044.

And why not give a failure point while I'm here, in case anybody takes the trade if its made available?  Just to be sure, if the trade is made available and anybody takes it, the failure point to stop out or reenter after the Bradley date is whatever the high is on or very close to the Bradley date.  Once above, take a stop, and once back below reenter the trade for the downward expectation.  I hope that makes sense!

Good trading all.

Edited on Tuesday upon request to add the following in terms of Bradley reactions for price and time.  In the study, range week 1 is the week of the Bradley date and extreme.  So we are in range week 1 for this Bradley date now.  As can be seen, reactions in the range week 1 range from a MINIMUM of 12 points, a MAXIMUM of 91 points, and a median of 48 points.  If 2133 was it yesterday, then we've already exceeded the minimum, and the median would put us at a low of 2085 this week.

For week #2 (next week), the reactions range from a MINIMUM of 28 to a MAXIMUM of 144, and a median of 74.  The median would put us at a low of 2059 next week.

For week #3 (early August NFP week), the reactions range from a MINIMUM of 40 points to a maximum of 197 points, and a median of 75 points.  The median would put us at a low of 2058 in the NFP week. Please also note that the maximum reaction of weeks #1, #2 and #3 was in week #3 in all but one instance on the study.

My caveat as above is that I'm not convinced that 2133 from yesterday was the high for the week.  My original suggestion stands though, that any high above 2130 is a minimum 5 week high, and anything over 2135 is an all time high.  From this study, I'd expect another shot over 2130, and perhaps over 2135, most likely on Wednesday or Thursday. but this is of course not required.

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

July 15, 2015

I had hoped to see the 2010 mark this week and of course to this point it doesn't look like that happens. On the flip side of that filling the gap was the other idea. We have accomplished this now so the next step is to get a close under 2090 as soon as today. The way this market messes around and the fact it is Opex bearishness may not be all that easy but that is what I plan to bet on. This view will have to change if we close the week above this 2090-2096 level. I don't think it will happen but I am not in charge of the game.

There is still room for about 4 points higher and I am hoping that gets hit this morning and the correction starts. If by some outside chance it kept going higher I would have to think something else is going on. That is all I have and I have been waiting for today to get here so we shall see. For the record I would settle for a break and close under 2093 but would prefer 2090.

I did the math then drew the lines. You get to decide.
Ignore the bullish cross highlight, I didn't make them visible.

Saturday, July 11, 2015

Yer stuck with me, you poor bastards...

200ma is taking the weekend off and has left me to watch the shop.  While I'm not sure your humble correspondent is up for the task, here goes nuthin'...

From a harmonics point of view (starting at low in February), we appear to be in a Bat Pattern (yellow) that targets the .886 retracement at point D (1998.51) SPX.  We also have a Crab Pattern off the March low (green) that's a bit more bearish and would have us bottom out at its 1.618 extension, or 1980.96.  Breaking below the February lows would bring other harmonics into the picture, but we should have a significant bounce somewhere around these targets, so no need to get ahead of ourselves.

Add these to the H&S pattern that targets 2010 and we have quite a bearish outlook. (As a quick side-note, that H&S target occurs right on a line that is both the 1.272 of the green grid, and .786 of the yellow, so I would generally expect a bit of a bounce there).  The retreat from the June 22 high was swift, quickly eclipsing the previous low of June 9 at 2072 .  Add to that that the sideways movement since June 30 looks nothing if not corrective, and I maintain we have significant opportunities on the bearish side until this thing runs its' course.

Lastly, keep in mind that we haven't broken out of the (B wave) running triangle that we've been in since July 2nd, so it's not unlikely that we finished wave (d) Friday, with wave (e) next (to 2055-65 area?) and the final C wave thrust to start thereafter. I think 2090 should be tagged, and if it doesn't happen Monday morning, that may be the game.

Happy trading,
Airyk



Friday, July 10, 2015

July 10, 2015

7 weeks into this correction and so far a whopping 90ish points off the May 20th high. It is retreating just as slowly as it consolidated and crept higher. News drives the market over night and sellers step in during the day. It is actually impressive that the VIX is approaching a double off the recent low with such a minor decline.

Although it has been less than impressive with the whipsaw here near the lows the market still has work to do before resuming the bull trend. I say this reminding myself this continues to be a bull market believing strongly a deeper correction is needed just for health purposes. If you are trading it be nimble and don't let it get away from you. I say it over and over again, there is always another trade.

Yesterday I convinced myself the Greece deadline was bullshit. In all honesty I still think it is until they actually ink this deal. I thought it was simple to appease by returning an agreement previously handed to them. Tsipras still has to deal with his own parliament. The EU will most likely have to settle on another band-aid (or several) before this is all accomplished.

I have no issues with market movement that is occurring. I do become impatient when something I believe should happen is delayed due to nothing more than manipulation. I don't believe we will close above last weeks high today but will point out there is room as high as 2085-2090. Doubtful in my play book that it happens but if it does it does. My plan only entails it not closing above this 2090 level next week and the fact that we could see another 7 weeks of the same shit. I don't believe for a moment the low is in. If you want to know the kind of crap they can put us all through you need look no further than January. Good luck and most of all....Keep 'em Green! Everybody has been profiting and I hope it continues.
This will look different today but next week has been where my interest lies.

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

July 8, 2015

FOMC Minutes Today at 2pm ET.
It seems there is nothing more fun than a moving day regardless of direction. Lately it seemed as though price targets were delayed a day so it was nice to actually have one get hit on the day it was looked for. I know most were on top of this and were able to profit...good job! The rally off the low was as expected and would think it still has a bit more to go before all is said and done. We basically came off the May high 90 points lower and half way back should be considered if not higher.

We have now opened the door for lower but we need to remember it is the Fed who runs the show. Keep this in mind and take what you get at all costs. There is always another trade. There is no road map and I already mentioned the half way back scenario but one has to keep higher options open as well. I believe there is a good chance we can get back above that February to June lows trend line but I wouldn't expect it to last very long if it does. Right now it looks like the perfect spot to jump on shorts again immediately but should you choose to do so, be cautious. There is no reason this can't test something as high the trend line off the highs in May and June. I personally feel if that were to happen it would get sold hard. Since this would be the perfect bull trap I am keeping the option open just in case. I put rather low percentage odds on it right now but if it were to find the 2107-2114 range it could happen. The market hasn't defined anything without taking advantage of a particular time table in the windows it has open.

I had drawn a new line on my chart below and aside from yesterday we have closed on it religiously or at least tagged it. Closes above this (not on it) is where I would be willing to risk a little bit higher prices. As far as downside I suggest one step at a time and I can't see where that next step isn't the February gap fill. From there anything can happen but we will approach that if and when we get to it. (I had to toss the IF in ...lol)

You guys are great! Keep up the good work.
The trend line off the August and February low was tested as expected and the rally was on from there. A trading range should now be set up with this next high we are going to get. Just remember this is about price more than anything else. This is still a bull market and we are merely in corrective mode until proven otherwise.

Monday, July 6, 2015

July 6, 2015

I noticed the Greeks had an intelligent majority vote of "NO". This of course is the reason (sarc) the correction continues. I will put something new up after the close today rather than try to catch up and share all my thoughts without having reviewed a thing over the holiday weekend. Oddly enough I had drawn a new line on my chart and after the initial sell off we tested its upper boundary then managed to close on it consecutively after that. I won't be looking for that today however.


Monday, June 29, 2015

End of Q2 2015

Things are still open to upside but most likely it will wait for this current correction to complete. Lines are basically Gann work on the chart, you have your fibs. How long this lasts will most likely decide its  final target.

As for my opinion I think it is pretty much on target. I remained bullish for as long as I could and the bulls just couldn't produce. They can get it back on track but it shouldn't be as easy without major over night help with all the crap they have now left over head. We have been above 2020 since February and it looks like it could get wiped out here with ease. Price being where it is here at the end of the month and 2nd quarter put things back on track for the longer term view I had. Today's damage is significant.

There are still things going on that don't make sense so just be careful not to get sucked into herd mentality. The weather may break for me here tomorrow so I may take a couple extra days off and do something. I started a position in July 210 calls today but will look to sell those at the gap if it can get there. If it looks weak I will just take what I can get (if it will give it to me)


Fighting to get it back but can they

Sunday, June 28, 2015

June 28, 2015

Q2 coming to a close....

I am going to keep this short and sweet looking at the week ahead. All I really want to point out from a price perspective is that a ton of shit is going on in that range below from 2082-2090. For me it is going to take close below the 2082-2083 to jump on the bearish train and quite honestly from that area is where this could be a rip your face off type of rally going into the middle of the month.
There isn't one thing easy about this aside from the channel trades in my view. The door remains wide open to trap either side. It could get even worse for bears willing to buy the dip if it breaks below the price level I am looking at to short. It could open up the door to below 2k easily. Looking at time and price there is just too much going on into the 1st week of August where wild swings could occur. I maintain the view that the longer it protects that lower channel the higher highs are just waiting. I am currently flat any index trade but can see an opportunity for a swing in one direction or the other coming this week. My thought is to fade the Thursday high or close as things look right now. I would not be a dip buyer if we are near that lower line. A holiday week with a month and quarter coming to a close so perhaps just another short range but it doesn't look like it should be. I still suggest keeping things tight and taking profits on both sides of the trade appropriately.


Off Topic: If you want to argue please find a hell hole to do it in. This IS NOT the place it will be tolerated. Everybody has an opinion although there are times I don't think it is appropriate to share it. There are always 2 sides (or more) to everything so keep this in mind and keep debates civilized...please. Nobody ever wins in these situations but somebody always loses.

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

June 23, 2015

Respect is the only word I have for today. We barely looked back to 1560 and here we sit consolidating above 2000-2040-2070 for over 6 months now....

Update June 25th: Reality check in need here? We were down a whopping 6 points today not 60. We are 33 points from an all time high and 25 trading days away from it. During the past week we were within 5 of this very high. We are still 30 points above the low made a week ago Monday. HALF WAY is where we sit and there is room to 2082-87 without any serious shake up here from a bulls point of view. I just don't want anybody getting sucked in until it is time. From there it could be more profitable than most of the targets you are hearing about. I am bias here about price and don't need a new high but this thing is repetitious to say the least

Sunday, June 21, 2015

June 21, 2015

Well we go into the week knowing the Russell 2K and the Nasdaq made new highs in the past week. The last 3 FOMC release dates have all led to a tag of near 2107 whether from below or above. This level has become much stronger support and resistance now. March, April, and May highs have all set up an upper trend line (Nice FOMC coincidence?) that has been tagged in the previous 3 months so it is almost a necessity it does so in June or .....

I think the channels (orange colored on my chart) are fairly obvious. The line off the March low aimed right at 2109.69 this past Friday. The 4pm tick was 2109.69 before settling 30 cents higher for the close. The low this week wasn't quite as perfect off the February low but what is? These 2 lows seem very significant from a weekly view. You can see what has happened when it gains and closes above the line off the March low. I will expect the same thing to happen below the line off the February low if it will ever break it down.

The game plan for the week is to play the high and low of last week with the fibs. 127.2 and 161.8 overhead and the obvious standards. Nothing else seems to matter beyond the trend lines above and below. I think they have become more than obvious regardless of your trading style. I put these lines (rounded) for the week on the chart at 2082 and 2120. What you do with them is your decision. I am not a bull nor bear but as you all know I am looking higher until that lower line gets violated like a choir boy at a Catholic church. For the most part a 2 week high is followed by a 2 week low and especially at double tops and bottoms. If this double bottom leads to the 2 week rally it should find the March - May upper trend line and I believe when it peeks above it, my target(s) come into play. If you add 50 points to the February high (based on how the consolidation highs are happening) it will target the 2169 level ahead of the end of July. I say this because I think it would be in the form of a blow off type move and could easily be exceeded. If we were to see a high going into the first week of July I would expect the end of July to resemble December to some degree. Just my view looking forward without trying to get caught up with the cycle highs and lows.


Update 6/22 The market fell just a touch short of the upper line I have drawn but I do notice it has picked up on the next line I have forecast and closed right on it. Going forward this could prove to be a new support and resistance line...for how long would be the question

Thursday, June 18, 2015

June 19, 2015

We seem to be at an interesting juncture here. From a Gann perspective today was Trading Day 216 and Calendar Day 315 from the low last August. I only mention this because it was a near perfect 360 x .618 from a price perspective. I also mention it due to the 9 vibration. Going into the week after the 4th of July we are also looking at 180 TD off the October low and 225 from that August low. The following week is 360 TD off the February 2014 low. Over the weekend and into next week we are also 500 trading days off the June 2013 low and this past Sunday was 720 Calendar Days off the same (ES pretty much squared that up at 2060). I just found all of this interesting since I am trying to learn.

On the day we punched what would be the next growing line of support / resistance then pulled back to close pretty much on it. If we were to break below the open on Fed day it may open up something to around 2078 but I wouldn't be fruity on the short side until that lower line broke off the February and June lows. Below that it is hard to say what could really open up. Things are tight here and if we break up and retest the ATH I would put good odds on 2150+ going into the 4th of July fireworks time frame. This would probably be an opportunity to short but my guess is not for long due to that 2 week window I believe is open. I can find anything from 2173-2209ish going into the middle to end of July. Most of you know I am waiting to test at least one of these purple dashed lines overhead. There is some significance in the 2110 area at the close tomorrow. If we start to correct later in the day it would probably lead into weakness Monday barring any news event.


Sunday, June 14, 2015

Week of June 15. 2015 More Fed Bullshit to come

I had plans to post as many charts on other things as I could yesterday but as usual something unexpected arose yet again. I will post these along the way in this thread. I mainly wanted to look at AAPL, AMZN, GDX, NFLX, and TLT in general.

Nothing ever works the same in a trend of either direction. I cannot find where this is any different than last summer to this point. Instead of seeing a deeper correction like we did in April of 2014 we have simply been consolidating the mess since around December. As far as I am concerned it doesn't get bearish until that lower dashed line on the chart has a close below it. This would open the door to 2040 and beyond. Most of you know I take a major bottom and work a 45 degree bullish price from that. I am currently working on the February 2014 low yet to this point. This price would project 2213.91. The last time was the June 2014 low but it only took about 13 months (around 260 trading days) to test 1987 falling just a couple points short at 1985 around the 4th of July last year. Once that price broke to the upside it projected higher and has done even more since.

This time around it is about 100 trading days more going into mid July at the 2214 price. We are having difficulties yet keep managing to squeak just a tad higher like February, April, and most recently May. I believe there is a 1597 Fibonacci Time Series date around this time frame as well. This has got to be the week of determining direction. With FOMC on Wednesday the catalyst is there for a push. I am still leaning bullish for new highs but am not disregarding any of the obvious when it comes to the downside. I am expecting a couple of dull and choppy days and perhaps testing the bottom of the channel ahead of the Fed. This would probably be the worse place to be in relationship to price at 2pm Wednesday. If we broke it downside I would be in high favor of chasing it in the same direction with a stop on the line. Upside would be a no brainer. We also have Quad / Triple Expiration crap to deal with during the week. In short I wouldn't get overly extended in either direction until you see the HFT crap on Wednesday. The Fed will most likely say with our poor timing of what we thought should be happening in the economy right now we cannot see reason to do anything until at least September as our manipulation of government releases has been on track but thus far the banks haven't gained as much as we would like to see. (Windy sentence intended to mimic the air bags).


Fell a few cents short of the 2107 today. Closing Friday up near or above 2110 is something I would consider bullish but is also a great place for a reversal


Sunday, June 7, 2015

Week of June 8, 2015

Things are about as tough as ever here so don't expect anything decisive as far as direction from me. My thought is about how the market is using these lows near the beginning of the month as support. January gave us a low in the first week then retested it near the middle of the month. February was a low the first week, March the middle, April and May both in the beginning. I would think this thing has to test that light green up trend line on the chart. It also looks apparent that a break of the Friday low spells trouble for the bulls but how much? For now we have basically done 50 points in 10 days since the 2134.72 print.

My gut, my eyes, and of course my target all say higher yet and I think they are setting this up for the FOMC date as per the norm. If we can regain that little light green line on the chart I would assume this is correct. The target then would be the double line area and the FOMC should punch it so we can tag the upper. With Opex and FOMC the same week we are going to have to watch this carefully going into the 4th of July. There is a higher high that is possible even here. I realize things are very weak internally but with all the crap up and down this could continue. The best advice I have is to be cautious until we see a break in the trend(s).


Sunday, May 31, 2015

June 1st, 2015

First I want to thank everyone for the well wishes with the new blog. Things won't be done all that differently but it will remain public until such point someone pisses off 1 of us enough to take it private again. As long as everyone is treated with respect there shouldn't be any issues. I also want to thank Airyk for the assistance he has and will be providing.

On a happy note, I heard from Fam and she is fine. I let her know about what was going on with this blog and told her it would remain until she is able to participate more. Other than that I will let her provide information about her personal stuff.

Things will change a bit as time progresses here. There is a plan to add some links and some information Yikes has provided which is greatly appreciated. There will probably be some kinks along the way but we will work hard and diligently to ensure smooth running. There will never be a donate button but please feel free to donate to your favorite charity when you feel the urge.

This blog and all of its participants are for the purpose of betterment and learning. On that note I don't care what kind of trading you do and if you happen to come here as a new participant I encourage you to ask questions. There are some great people here who will share their knowledge.

The longer term charts don't look much different than the end of April to me. Selling is what it still wants to do but just won't. If we happened to break down here it would probably only send us into that 2040 range before the bull would want to resume again. I DO NOT want to see this happen so I am bias to the upside wanting this to end and correct deeper than 2040. The chart below is what I want to see but keep in mind it doesn't have to. All the up and down shows it wants to sell more than it wants to go up so if we can get that last bit of up sooner rather than later......


Good luck and keep 'em green!



Thursday, May 28, 2015

Test

This is just for a weekend test run. If anybody has any issues please send me an email at 200mablog@gmail.com and we will work to get the issue resolved. Suggestions / Ideas welcome by any and all