Sunday, February 11, 2018

Week of 2/12/2018 It Ain't Over

It took a little longer than I had hoped but we got there and corrected in a fairly major way. We have found a little support at the 200 day moving average and a couple other uptrending lines. This is not to say the correction is over. There is an area down around 2460-2480 that looks to require a test. If we could do that in the short term like in the next 4 weeks or so there is a potential to get higher by May. I put a couple thoughts on the chart. Enough people have commented on the highest MACD reading we have seen so to think the HIGH is IN is ridiculous in my view. Doesn't fit any way you look at it. A low in February or March is much more likely.

Even if we don't make a higher high this go round a retest of it is due sooner rather than later. You don't have to look at a chart very long to notice a 3 or 4 month top or bottom being made. Look back to 2007 ...high in July, corrected into August only to have a new high in the first week of October. Tht isn't a very long turn around and a lot more crap was hitting the fan back then. I think we are going to make the higher high and correct into October. May 2015 and August 2016 need to be visited.

Weekly Chart

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

February 6, 2018

Last thread was getting a little crowded so thought I would toss up a new quick.

I don't see much holding this from dropping into the August and September prices right now. We are due to get a little relief but the damage done here doesn't suggest it has to be immediately. The elevator down is in express mode so til it blows a fuse I don't suggest trying to catch the falling knife.

Monday, January 29, 2018

Fed Week Jan 29, 2018

I didn't go over much this weekend but shall intraday and edit this later. For now here is daily chart and honestly I don't know where this freight train is going to stop.

Hat tip to Airyk and EWTN looking higher. Friday's move was a shocker to me.

Monday, January 15, 2018

January 15, 2018

Looking at charts it appears stupid to think we aren't gonna keep running. I put a couple spots on the chart that seem inevitable and then I don't think a pull back will do much more than set up yet another run. I am not sure what line it wants but I can't help but think it is the upper. They are so close I can't help but wonder why it wouldn't.

SPX Weekly
My question is how many times it gets tagged before a top is actually in. This doesn't look like it will be the last.

Monday, January 8, 2018

January 8, 2018

2018 started off with a nice gap and go and should at least see a little continuation this week though I think upside is finally becoming limited. The problem with a high coming in here is that it is only January. This is not a time to look for anything more than temporary. There is still time to get a bit of a reprieve and still retest it with Opex and the start of earnings.

I am still in the bearish camp but am expecting a bit of whipsaw over the next few weeks. This high, or at least what I think is going to be a high, is just coming at an odd time. Going forward I can't imagine how the new Tax Bill isn't going to create a little commotion. My belief is the best way to raise some capital will be to grudgingly convince share holders it is time to take a little profit for re-investment purposes during 2018. This move that is occurring appears to be setting up such a correction in my opinion. This is by no means the end of the bull the way I see it unfolding but nothing about this nearly 9 year run has been normal. The Fed and their little list of dealers have specific ideas and have yet to relinquish.

This SPX daily chart has a couple upper lines on it with prices I think could and need to be hit this week. I am just hoping the 2766 holds here or that next little line I put above probably comes into play sooner rather than later. Even with a pull back the open last Tuesday provides some channel support down around 2700 now and a retest of the year end RTH close would most likely be next and provide opportunity in the short term for bulls. No matter what, I cannot see how we don't make a higher high into the end of Feb or mid March now and hope it wouldn't run into May without at least a steeper correction than that of the 2550's-2600

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

January 3, 2018

There won't be a chart but wanted to toss out a couple things. The year 2015 has been weighing heavily on my mind as most of you know. I have been going back and looking at quarterly highs and lows etc. I thought if we got a higher high to start this week the correction would be off the table and this could run into February or March.

What I found was this when looking back. In March of 2017 we hit a high of 2400.98 before we rested a little. Back in 2015 our March low was 2039.69 so roughly in 2 years we did the infamous circle of 360 degrees. Off that 2400.98 we are well under way to 360 above that if we target March again.

In March of 2000 we tagged 1552.87 and in March of 2009 we found the infamous 666.79. Add 1200 to the March 2000 high and 2100 to the March 2009 low and we fall right in that target area of 2750-2780ish. 2100 points in 9 years is roughly the 233 per year and the 1200 in 18 years is roughly 66.67 (resemble the 2009 low?). Anyway I thought I would share the thought while in my pea brain and use it to at least get up a new post.

This by no means says we hit that target but we are definitely on track and the way the SPX is moving it fits pretty well. (Considering it would also equate with approximately twice the move off around 1890-1900--figure the August 2014 low--- from the Oct 2011 low.) It also works out to roughly 34 months of the May 2015 high

Monday, December 25, 2017

Last week of 2017

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all!

I have been working on a couple weekly charts and found a little time to update them. This first is a little messy due to the number of lines I have so my apologies. Easier to look at if you open in a new window. The first one goes back to March 2009 but I only made visible to the Oct 2011 low for ease.

This chart only dates back to around the low in February 2014. I used this mark cause it is what made me want to hunt the 2213.91 that had been on the table long before that. Notice the pennies in difference at the 2733 price I had mentioned in the past few weeks on both charts for this week or possibly into the first week of January. IF we are going to tag it I believe it will be one of these 2 weeks. The other possibility higher is around 2704 as stated in chart above. The lowest I could find on the week for a bullish case is 2651.38 so if that gets taken out....

I will update this when I look at it again after I have my Christmas Dinner if I think of something

Sunday, December 17, 2017

We continue to defy gravity. Futures (ES) this morning suggest something similar to what I said last week with a tag of 2695- 2697 possible today. This however doesn't appear to be right. My belief for now is that the original bullish line has been changed. We appear to be chasing the more bullish black dashed line off the chart. This line exists off the 2657.74 high and that of the 2665.19 line a couple days later. I have decided the November 7th high can be incorporated into either of these 2 numbers. If that is correct a line can be drawn into the week of January 8th which would bring 2733ish into play. This would suffice due to the 80/20 rule that may come into play once again. It doesn't have to go this high and could die at any time but like my little update I had put under the chart in the last post this recent low at 2652 was used as a launching point for higher highs. It doesn't have to hit 2720 here either as another tag (or 2) of the line would suffice. It peaks around 2712 on December 20th (this Wednesday and near 2700-2704 today). A guessing game now for those of us bearish without a true signal. ( I will continue to guess!)

Monday, December 4, 2017

December 4, 2017

We continue to climb to higher highs. If ya ask me this thing is outta control. I try to stay neutral most of the time but I can honestly say I am bearish is hell. Maybe I have to wait til year end to get this right. I haven't a clue at this point. Breach of that 2654ish price said it was a buy but I don't have faith in much higher. It is what it is and requires more patience than I apparently have. Ahead of the Fed and with this tax bill crap I am merely going to be a bit more cautious.

Missed the upper line today but I fully expect to tag it again. This could drop to nearly 2650 and have a decent run back to a new high. Time enough to get a new high, pull back and retest it before the year ends. Looks like it could play out like late 2015 into early 2016?

Sunday, November 19, 2017

November 20, 2017

I am tossing this up just to get something new up. Weekend got pretty busy on me so I haven't really had a chance to examine things more closely. I will do that during the week. For now all I know is the 2597.02 was pretty much the 161.8 of the November 2016 low and March 1st high. My concern is this thing trying to form a top into year end until we see something lower with enthusiasm. I did notice the put / call ratio is climbing in the indexes and very relaxed in the VIX so perhaps this comes to fruition. This is a short week so I will make sure to get something else up after Turkey Day. Glad to be back and have some time in here and to trade a with a little more regularity.

I put a couple price labels (+/- 4 to 8) on the chart above for bullish cases. The blue trend lines are the ones to watch for over the next 3 weeks. The upper red trend line is the most bullish I have and you can see it does run up and tag the line in the sand for bears. Pretty much strictly based on FOMC shit