Sunday, October 21, 2018

Week of October 22, 2018

I had done everything earlier today only to have lost the hours I had put into it due to a power outage. I haven't changed my view all that much and still think we need to hunt the break of the yearly longs which is in that 2690 area. I took a snap shot of the Trading View daily chart and will just post that for now. I will update the other(s) when ambition sets back in.

The downtrend line doesn't mean much here but I had it on my other stuff and in the platform so I placed it here as well. I did move / eliminate a couple things here to clean it up and once I get the other stuff back in order I will update. Interesting week or 2 ahead it seems. How quick we can put a bottom in before a counter trend rally is going to be a bit telling in my view. 

Monday, October 15, 2018

Week of October 15. 2018

Damage is being done and seems likely to continue. We do have to keep in mind the 2018 low to high long is still intact. There are still viable options available on both sides of the tape so all we can do is trade what we see. This week we have the release of the Fed minutes so we can see what the change was in relationship to the "accommodating" terminology, and it is Opex. We should get another relief rally soon enough. The question for me is will it be RYFO or simply corrective to eat up some time. We talked about how messy this has been trying to get to these new highs all of 2018. Keep 'em green, these are the money making opportunities. 

It may look bad technically, but it can get worse on larger time frames. 

Sunday, October 7, 2018

Week of October 8, 2018

I think the team did a good job of finding the confluence of these highs we are currently having issues with. Now the question becomes the low target and whether or not it has actually been met. I have issues with this being the case but will also approach it with caution. We have had the discussions about all the upper that have currently been met and the divergences were pretty clear into these levels. I am hesitant to call a top but I believe we need to start looking at the possibility of at least an intermediate term potential. By now I am sure most have looked over the charts and have a thesis of their own and we can certainly discuss this more as the week goes on. I am only going to post the SPX and RUT daily here but will post what I find time for in the thread.

Monday, October 1, 2018

Oct 1, 2018

I had somewhat of a busy weekend so no real look at charts over the weekend. Will get something up after the close. For now just the SPX and RUT daily charts

Monday, September 24, 2018

FOMC and End of Quarter 3 are here...

FOMC and End of Quarter 3 are here...Is the end of the rally? We know next week brings on the typical 3/4-2% correction with QT on the agenda. Now we move that amount up to $50B in Quarter 4. I am not sure why they would need to quit since they have proven they can drive this market higher even when liquidity retracts. Seems to me it is a ticking time bomb.

As far as the markets are concerned it seems all criteria has been met suggesting we need to be on our toes. Definitely in a mid term cycle that is rare by all accounts.

Apologies to One for not having been posting a RUT.

Monday, September 17, 2018

Week of September 17, 2018

It really doesn't matter how many times I look at it there are prices overhead this thing wants. September 26th marks 8 months since the January high. A nice 8/12 (667 number) again at work. Simply adding the 66 gets us into that 2939 area when added to the January high. We have been looking here. 2968-69 gets us 161.8 off the Feb low to Mar high. Regardless of what FOMC brings the 1st trading day of the month isn't going to let it move higher in the immediate picture. The question is whether or not the correction is done and they use October to get the high anticipated before this market does what it really needs to do. This isn't 2017 and although we have managed higher highs, the chart doesn't look that impressive in having done so.

Monday, September 10, 2018

Week of September 10th, 2018

As you know I was looking for something in the low to mid 2850's during this correction. I don't see any reason to think this still can't happen unless we start trading and holding something up in the 2897 area. I am willing to buy another dip for a run to a new all time high but I just don't think it is here yet. If it is so be it and I will chase accordingly. An August ATH doesn't fit any better than a January one in my book so things just have to run it's course. Overall objective is still 2 times either the 2000 or 2007 high, it's just a matter of when. Eventually these prices also need a retest cause June of 2013 won't be the only time it has.

I still believe we have to tag that line just below us before we make a higher high

Monday, September 3, 2018

Week of Labor Day 2018

I didn't put TA on the chart and don't see a need to. You guys already have your own thing there anyway. I am posting a daily and weekly below. The daily is the one with arrows pointing at the lines of importance. You can see that this past week touched the red upper by means of the end of February high. Basically this just says we need to keep SPX under 2924 on the week or it hunts the green one above. It doesn't need to hunt the green but if it breaks above the red that is where I suspect it is going. I will add the March line if and when needed but it isn't much above the one on the chart.

Monday, August 27, 2018

August 28, 2018

Remember way back when and said this would eventually get tested again...well here we are (almost)

TA not necessary it seems (80/20 rule in full effect?)

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

August 22, 2018 FOMC Minutes Out Today

After the marginal new high made on Tuesday I believe things are due to turn south. Not being an EW guy I cannot put a label on it but it seems things are satisfactory across the board for completion of whatever this is.
We have seen a 3rd negative MACD divergence (plenty of other stuff too if there is follow through) now since the June high. I am counting this latest as the 3rd because I believe we are in correction mode. Tariff tax levies on the semi-conductors go into effect on the 23rd and today we have the release of minutes. I haven't a clue if the tariff on these are priced in but it is possible they can help lead the charge south. I am not sure how violent this move will be but it has very real potential in my view. The swifter move is most likely on deck for next week the way I am seeing it. End of the month stuff will be on deck and could be the extra fuel.

Yesterday we pretty much tagged that upper red dashed line again. The larger fibs haven't really changed after the marginal new high. Once we break that 2802.49 the trend will have changed. September is historically the most bearish month of the year. If those in the correction camp are to take control this is the time.