Tuesday, September 13, 2016

9-13-16

I know 200ma had planned on putting his thoughts on a new post this past weekend, but he's busier than a one-armed paper hanger these days, so I'm throwing this up just to get a new thread started.
(If you happen on by here 200, please feel free to overwrite if the mood catches you.)

I think I may have posted this in an earlier thread, but we are still not anywhere near out of options for how this market may go.  At least we've got some volatility now, so that helps open up some day trades at least.  My personal feeling is that the break to the downside of the tight BB ride we had is most likely a fake-out and we'll rip to points further north soon enough, but whether that's the wave 3 blow-off top or the ending diagonal is anyone's guess.


(As a side-note, the third option could be done with wave (iii) and into (iv) as another possibility.)
Happy trading.

Friday, August 12, 2016

8-13-16 (dog days... )

I gots dem low-volume-summa-time bluuuues....


Need I really say more?  I've no more crystal ball than anyone else here, but we are certainly overbought and at what could be looked at as a complete EW 5-count up since Brexit.  

Volume has been steadily dropping since February, and an even more pronounced decline since the late June low (which in 3rd waves should be getting stronger), so there's that to scratch your head over too.  The only way I can see that this might be bearish beyond a refresher-pullback would be if this is some kind of giant B wave of a multi-year expanded flat.  The volume thing would be consistent with that, but I have no more than coin flip odds on the idea.


VIX is currently in a tube only about 2.3 points wide, so somethings gotta give.

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

August 3, 2016

August is on us...

Well so far we have the long anticipated higher highs. This past FOMC is nowhere near its norm so far for either direction. The only thing close was the fact we got a Monday high after the announcement. 6 months off the February 1st high that followed the low preceding the January. The fact we have rallied for 6 months straight (120ish Trading days) is most likely the issue with upside. In 2014 we rallied with smallish corrections right into September's FOMC. I think we can expect the same here and maybe a little more if it wants the October line

Previously I talked about whipsaw but in all honesty I didn't expect it in such a tight range. I am sure the MM's had reason to keep it propped for some kind of future endeavor. As it stands now it is becoming more and more likely we are looking at a fall high. A year later than was previously targeted but it is what it is.

The FOMC high was 366 to the penny off the January 20th low. Today we also hit the top of the channel that I believe originated back at the January FOMC. Take this low out today and the next likely would be the bottom of that channel, and so on...

I think we did something similar to this back in 2013. I don't know how much weakness is in front of us so where to BTFD is really the only question I have going forward. Remember the 2120 gaps and the previous FOMC prices as a guide. Be smart on both ends of this tape is my best advice at the present time.


Tuesday, July 26, 2016

July FOMC

Well here we sit at targets expected a year ago. Going forward I have quite a few things on my mind but am not going to take the time this evening to go over it all. I will say I strongly believe this is meant to be a fall high and my guess is between the September FOMC and the one that falls in November (Conveniently a week before the election) this year.
As we head into our next FOMC rate decision it appears to me this was all set up during the January meeting. I haven't drawn the lines exact but the green dashed are the reference. The high and the low on January 27th have both been in play on one side or the other of that candle. Brexit tossed a wrench into things on both sides. Anyway you can draw a line off the 1/27 high then the 3/10 low (Nailed that one) and off the low of 1/27 and the low 6/16 to get an idea of why I look at FOMC the way I do. I believe one of these lines gets tagged even if we make a higher high with FOMC.
The 3 arrows near the top of the chart indicate the last 2 FOMC highs the week prior (and I put one on last Wednesday's cause I give it great odds of holding). If this one plays out the same way without a higher high we should be looking at a low headed into the release of the minutes in August. Our month of July opened around 2099 which is a well visited FOMC price. I think it takes a close above 2107-2108 to top the highest monthly close and at this point I am actually okay with that cause there should be a higher price later on.
Prices on the chart are FOMC highs and lows. I won't get more bearish than the 2099-2100 line til it is broke and I have already stated I expect 2081 at a minimum. If we do make a higher high 2200 should be pretty easy headed into August Opex


Sunday, July 17, 2016

July 17, 2016

I am not about to call a top after seeing how easy they can make this look. Instead I am going to look for a correction and a dip to buy for a swing. As I look at the weekly chart it appears it has room to run yet. Other charts are a bit iffy at this juncture hence looking for the correction.

When Fam had started her blog I recall putting a post up about the golden rule. As luck would have it that price rests at 2213.91. As I look at the weekly chart the blue line finds this price to an almost exact 9 years off the 2007 top. If it happens to break this level it is very possible we move higher but it should act as a buffer much like the July 2014 high when price was at 1987.68 and only managed the next 4 points before correcting into the first week of August. The way I see it the price should still stay short of 2250. A year ago these prices were on the board but TPTB decided to stretch us.

I fully expect to see a weekly red candle this week and believe it should look much like the time frame from a year ago. If it decides to break out higher against me I know to bail. 2 or 3 weeks ago it became clear the next break above 2114 was headed here. As I look at the monthly chart I think it is possible anything can happen so the long isn't all that safe in my view either and will be guarded like a Fed algo. The 2 levels I will watch below are the July open and the end of December high. FOMC is a week and a half away but I think if we are going to move higher it will be by mid week and don't expect it to be by much unless it is truly a break out finale. Thus far this isn't acting like a typical top but neither did the May 2015.

Looking forward if this somehow ends up being our ultimate high then I would fully expect to test 2150ish come October so I don't think we are anywhere near going into the tank yet. It wouldn't bother me to be wrong about that however. If ya wonder why I am looking here just look at the last 3 mid October lows and the line it made. I mentioned the July stuff in the last post

I only took the chart back to the November 2012 low cause that was our last QE3 dip.
Weekly SPX:


Tuesday, July 12, 2016

July 12, 2016

Something quick..

Market looks like it is in a hurry to get to the 2173 level. Then it looks like it is set to drag this shit out into the fall. I say this thinking we can still find 1950ish again before it finally tops. I still only have one word for all of this L-E-G-A-C-Y It only makes sense after going nowhere for over a year and a half that we tag 180 off the July 2014 high and this recent low. Thought it looked like it could have been a half way back move if one were to look forward.

Prices are cut off at the bottom but don't think it matters. 2173 still the next target though I can see where it may not rush to get there. After that I put the February 2014 low 45 degree price up there at 2213.91. I can see an algo rush to that price if the Fed really wants it with the next FOMC

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

July 6, 2016

Patience....

FOMC June minutes get released. I had this day pegged for a couple other reasons and now this just adds to it. We are at the same "time" as we were back in December from the high near the start of the month and to the end of the month. I try not to manipulate this chart because it is my FOMC guideline. I did have to move a line to the June high and have yet to put the June FOMC stuff on this because I didn't feel much of a need when I looked at the other price points.

I drew what could be the potential megaphone there has been discussion about with the heavy dashed lines. I could have extended the low line into the 3rd week of August as this was my intention but I saved the chart already so too late. I will post my other daily in the thread.

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Q2 2016 Ending

Higher my ass
(but one man's opinion)

I am not going to get carried away with anything. Blame it all on Brexit if ya want. I am posting a weekly chart back to the 2009 low. I started playing around with speed and 1/3's and while doing so I found similar measured moves both in time and price. Price is the hardest to get right as we all know. There is just a bit too much virgin space below for me. I can tell  you while I was calculating everything I had available in my little pea brain I had no issues finding Yikes 1950 next week.

Be patient.

Saturday, June 18, 2016

6-18-16

Getting about time to throw up a new thread (or was that "throw-up on my new threads"?).

Nothing earth shattering here, just going to post a weekly chart which looks to me to be pretty bearish.  I've mentioned many times I have no problem with the idea that we could go much, much higher after a correction here, or we could actually be in a longer term bear market, but no way to know until we take out a few levels.  The first one I think is nearly a given is the .382 retracement at around SPX 2000.  The next one, should the moves since the April high turn out to be an expanded flat and a C-wave down equalling 1.618 of wave A would be right around 1980.  Below that we have the .618 retracement of the leg up since February at ~1930.  It would take a convincing break below that to make me think the bullish case is finally off the table as I have my doubts that a blow off top would come after that much weakness, but all that remains to be seen and is a ways off at this point.




Enjoy your summer!