Tuesday, March 21, 2017

March 22, 2017

It's still about the Fed. I had mentioned the previous lows made after the February 1st FOMC and the line coming off them. Yesterday (Monday) we broke it and traded under it although it was a relatively quiet session. Today we opened at the top of that line (back test) and fell off over 1%! Something that didn't look as though it could ever happen again.

Although it can take longer than bears may have patience for it has been my experience from watching the Fed crap that when it breaks down it will typically hunt the last FOMC price whether it be a high or low. For me this means we should test either the 1/26 high or the 12/13/2016 high. I kept the line intact on the chart off these highs and it comes across in the 2333ish area. It's still all about patience.

I know the chart is a little busy but I want to point out the dashed blue line we back tested today and that black line at the bottom of today's candle. Other lines are there because the Fed and it's partners in crime can decide where we stop whenever they want.

I didn't count trading days but just off a calendar day view the run up from the November low to the March 1st high was basically 315 in 120 or roughly 2.625/per day. The move is also similar in price as that of the Oct 2014 low to the May 2015 high. That one of course ate up a little more time than this. The other bullish move made was Nov 2012-May 2013 that was roughly 345. This extra 30 is where the 886+1552 or possible + 1576 could come into play. The question around this would be when the possibility comes. Even if you look back to the Sept high we came a long ways in about half the time it should have taken.The December high comes into play just before the release of minutes in April....
The shaded box needs to trade..at some point

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

March 15, 2017 FOMC

Interesting little break (but save) off the last 2 FOMC lows today. A break lower than this should send us into the 2330ish area which would be the line off the December 13 and Jan 26 highs. The March 1st high at 2401 is a pretty good fit here but nothing from a TA appearance allows for it to look finished. So far it is just another minimal pull back eating up more time than price. From a timing stance and looking back this rally reminds me much of the Nov 2012 low that rallied into May of 2013. This one is a couple weeks ahead of that so the fit puts it right into the May 1st FOMC. Sell in May and ....?

Downside doesn't appear to be done here either and since we are in a seasonal expiration this week I think we should be able to trust this since SPY dividend will cause it to take a hit on Friday. Not sure the higher gap gets filled but I would expect the 2383 at some point. I think patience is in order downside til 2285 is gone.

Friday, March 3, 2017

March 3, 2017

Just gonna toss this up in a post and see if it sticks

 SPX

INDU
High made in 2000 was earlier than the S&P's so the red line off the July and October highs in 2007 might work here   

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

February 22, 2017

For some odd reason I am not able to post a chart below. It keeps telling me I have to sign in even though I am. Might be a firewall/cookie issue?

So here is a new post here just to show what I am seeing. This is a weekly chart so a bit easier to see the lines. I put a couple other levels above and am not calling a top here. I am just thinking it needs a breather very soon at a minimum.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

February 21, 2017

Time is short so just a quick weekly chart for now. Minutes released on Wednesday and this was a secondary week for a high I ignored long ago. At this juncture and these levels I am not so sure it can't repeat 2015. 2360 was my next target and what I had hoped was an ultimate high but the ability to blow through 2200 and 2250 without pause (or trading) makes me wonder. Issues at 2401 if not sooner.



Monday, February 6, 2017

February 6, 2017

We approach this week celebrating 1 year off the February 2016 low. This has been one helluva sustained rally to this point. If not mistaking today marks the 250th trading day off that low and a full 360 (2016 was leap year so maybe 361?). As I look back at the lines I trust most it appears we have to tag the upper green one more time. Today that is pretty much at that 45 degree price level at 2305.86. 500 above the February 2016 low points at 2310 though it doesn't have to get there and will take a break above the other level. This week should mark a turn and by looking back at 2016 (and years prior for the most part) we are due to make a low at some point in the first couple weeks of March.

I realize it isn't easy being a bear in this market but we are well past the point of expecting some kind of correction. I can't imagine it is easy for anybody to label this either. Technical's all point to this yet we all know these levels can deteriorate for longer than some can stay liquid in this Fed driven market. My hope is there is a price just a touch higher that has all the sell orders waiting to be filled. 10% minimum from here seems likely and it could be quick. Line in the sand coincides with the November low.

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

January 25, 2017

New POTUS, new ATH

I had been looking for the chop into Opex but had hoped once over so would this run be. All along it looked like we needed that higher high and now we have it. My thought is SPY needs something higher than that December one ahead of the dividend.

I tossed a couple prices up on the green line but my nervousness doesn't kick in until a break of 2305.86. I have been shorting into all of this gradually and this is where my stop is. I am willing to suffer a little pain with the shorts if need be. I personally think the market is ahead of itself at the moment and that we have just left too much virgin shit below to maintain this. I know there are other thinly traded areas 10% lower but don't believe this is a level that can maintain that.

I am using a basic 30 minute chart for now cause there just isn't much sense in staring at more with the games being played of late. Around 2277-78 creates issues if it breaks below that level. The same applies above it.

Awhile back I mentioned we had to break that green dashed and would most likely have to retest it. We are at that crucial juncture. I could handle a slight pierce of that upper price line I have but beyond that ... My eyes seem to want to focus more on where it has to come back to lower price levels rather than on the possibility of a breakout

Sunday, January 8, 2017

January 9, 2017



This is what I said at the beginning of 2016 (over on Permabear’s blog). Apparently I forgot I was still bullish:
I am thinking we retest the February 2014 low by March. From there I wouldn't write off a possible higher high for targets sought in 2015 (2150,2173, and 2214 with an extreme nearer 2250). Year end closes around the January 2014 highs near 1850 if I can remain optimistic. (In error I had written 2013 highs in December though I was targeting the 1850.84 high that was made in January 2014)
I was looking for those higher targets earlier in the year rather than the last 4 months to achieve those price levels. I thought we would correct deeply going into year end and that obviously didn’t happen. 

This year I am not calling any close to end 2017. Instead I am merely looking to take out the low 
made in 2016 at 1810. On my monthly chart I had laid out a possible 2243-2360 topping scenario. Unfortunately I lost that chart with my new version of Hubb. I will post the one that I think was last updated in Oct or Nov. 

For now I think the close this past Friday added a little fuel for something a bit higher. I was looking for chop into January Opex and this suffices. I think it is very possible we make a higher high this week and have the ability to retest it with the next FOMC. If we break above 2306 I will have to evaluate things closer. Even after the first correction that comes we should be able to make another run. Even with all the bullshit back in 2007 we still managed a corrective run at that high. For now it is about exercising patience. I am currently only long GDX with March call options at 20 and 24 strikes and have been accumulating March 200 SPY puts along the way. I haven’t scalped or traded a long since I closed my October buy at 2214.

The immediate bearish line is approaching rapidly so those who think we are going to continue to scream upwards are in danger (my opinion).
I mentioned we had to take out the green line. Wednesday we tested it twice and bounced off it. Thursday we managed to break it and still bounced to close slightly above it. I personally think we need a slightly higher high. I was hoping it would be today (Friday) and have the true correction begin. The stamp for the "legacy" may not let this happen until next week which coincides with his last day in office and Opex

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

December 21/28, 2016

I wasn't going to do a new post but since I had put up the new chart I thought I would share a little more with a brief update.
Last year at this time I was full blown bearish. As of now I am not although all my positions indicate otherwise. As I look at the price I really want to be but it seems just a tad early yet. We still have to break down and retest without making a higher high first. At the moment it may appear we did but it hasn't gone deep enough in my view for that insurance.
Price got beyond a couple of my targets by a bit but it isn't a deterrent because I always thought the market had to set a future move. As I look back to the February low I had never thought it went low enough so I went back and saw I was looking from 1750-1790 somewhere back then. If it had tagged 1788 based on the weekly line I had then this 2277.53 is a very nice fit. No matter what happens here we have to expect a bounce. How long and how much momentum that has will provide the best trade in my opinion. The last 3 February's have provided lows to trade, will we make it a 4th?

Gotta take out the green dashed next

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Final FOMC for 2016

Today we have our final FOMC announcement for our current administration. The next isn't scheduled until after the Trump inauguration (Jan 31-Feb 1).

It seems apparent the Fed had a price target they had to chase into the announcement today. I am impressed at how far they took this considering price levels below that were totally ignored. I did the math for the 45 degree price off the February low and put it on the chart. I also made a note of the measured move off the June low (a ZZ?) Time right now also puts us within about a day of the 4 month move from April to August and that line is on the chart as well. 2214 and 2243 barely caused a hiccup much like 2250 so this has to be about a Fed Funds target price we are aiming for. The next FOMC line below is 2180.