Sunday, January 8, 2017

January 9, 2017



This is what I said at the beginning of 2016 (over on Permabear’s blog). Apparently I forgot I was still bullish:
I am thinking we retest the February 2014 low by March. From there I wouldn't write off a possible higher high for targets sought in 2015 (2150,2173, and 2214 with an extreme nearer 2250). Year end closes around the January 2014 highs near 1850 if I can remain optimistic. (In error I had written 2013 highs in December though I was targeting the 1850.84 high that was made in January 2014)
I was looking for those higher targets earlier in the year rather than the last 4 months to achieve those price levels. I thought we would correct deeply going into year end and that obviously didn’t happen. 

This year I am not calling any close to end 2017. Instead I am merely looking to take out the low 
made in 2016 at 1810. On my monthly chart I had laid out a possible 2243-2360 topping scenario. Unfortunately I lost that chart with my new version of Hubb. I will post the one that I think was last updated in Oct or Nov. 

For now I think the close this past Friday added a little fuel for something a bit higher. I was looking for chop into January Opex and this suffices. I think it is very possible we make a higher high this week and have the ability to retest it with the next FOMC. If we break above 2306 I will have to evaluate things closer. Even after the first correction that comes we should be able to make another run. Even with all the bullshit back in 2007 we still managed a corrective run at that high. For now it is about exercising patience. I am currently only long GDX with March call options at 20 and 24 strikes and have been accumulating March 200 SPY puts along the way. I haven’t scalped or traded a long since I closed my October buy at 2214.

The immediate bearish line is approaching rapidly so those who think we are going to continue to scream upwards are in danger (my opinion).
I mentioned we had to take out the green line. Wednesday we tested it twice and bounced off it. Thursday we managed to break it and still bounced to close slightly above it. I personally think we need a slightly higher high. I was hoping it would be today (Friday) and have the true correction begin. The stamp for the "legacy" may not let this happen until next week which coincides with his last day in office and Opex

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

December 21/28, 2016

I wasn't going to do a new post but since I had put up the new chart I thought I would share a little more with a brief update.
Last year at this time I was full blown bearish. As of now I am not although all my positions indicate otherwise. As I look at the price I really want to be but it seems just a tad early yet. We still have to break down and retest without making a higher high first. At the moment it may appear we did but it hasn't gone deep enough in my view for that insurance.
Price got beyond a couple of my targets by a bit but it isn't a deterrent because I always thought the market had to set a future move. As I look back to the February low I had never thought it went low enough so I went back and saw I was looking from 1750-1790 somewhere back then. If it had tagged 1788 based on the weekly line I had then this 2277.53 is a very nice fit. No matter what happens here we have to expect a bounce. How long and how much momentum that has will provide the best trade in my opinion. The last 3 February's have provided lows to trade, will we make it a 4th?

Gotta take out the green dashed next

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Final FOMC for 2016

Today we have our final FOMC announcement for our current administration. The next isn't scheduled until after the Trump inauguration (Jan 31-Feb 1).

It seems apparent the Fed had a price target they had to chase into the announcement today. I am impressed at how far they took this considering price levels below that were totally ignored. I did the math for the 45 degree price off the February low and put it on the chart. I also made a note of the measured move off the June low (a ZZ?) Time right now also puts us within about a day of the 4 month move from April to August and that line is on the chart as well. 2214 and 2243 barely caused a hiccup much like 2250 so this has to be about a Fed Funds target price we are aiming for. The next FOMC line below is 2180.


Sunday, December 4, 2016

December 4, 2016

Well it has taken some time but they finally got to the 2214 target that has been anticipated.

Now the looming question is whether or not this was the finale. I believe we are in for a correction but for now won't anticipate much until after the December FOMC a week from Wednesday. I believe if we correct into that meeting the bounce that may come off it could be short lived. Right now I think we have to test something into the 2163-2180 range.

I hope to have a little time for the blog headed into the holidays so I am not going to get ahead of myself at the moment. Right now I think December is setting up to be very interesting.

After the move yesterday I can see this puncturing my next objective. Trying to talk me into no resistance and free air at these levels isn't going to work. 2250 give or take will  provide plenty. That dashed black line at the top of the chart that has been there forever was always the probability. Managed to get near my next price about a week earlier than anticipated. Get above that and I will believe the bull keeps charging.

Monday, November 21, 2016

Gobble! Gobble! Happy T-Day to all

Does Santa wear a red suit for a reason?

It has been a rough road since May/July of 2015.  At this juncture I fully believe the tide is about to turn. I don't know how easy it is going to be given a retest of some proportion should certainly be in play. The last couple of years that real decline didn't come until we rounded the corner into the New Year.



I am personally looking for a high in a time frame from this coming Wednesday into perhaps next Wednesday. By now everyone knows where the targets are and it appears the hunt is finally on to find them. Why they couldn't have just did it and gotten it over with a year ago is a mystery but it is what it is. 

I removed the line with the first price objective on it

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

November 2, 2016

I stared and listened and honestly came up with nothing looking at the SPX Chart. The 2081 is the immediate line in the sand yet as I see it. Typical FOMC bullshit with a low probable today as long as that holds. That still holds us up around 90 points from what I see as the ultimate bull / bear line so not excited. I am still in the camp that says our ATH is not in yet. I think the next move above 2154 will be the last attempt at it though....


Thursday, October 20, 2016

October 20, 2016

Just a quick little something so we can have a new thread.

I want to point out a couple tidbits. First this recent low is still 135 points above the bull / bear line. It is also still about 45 higher than our June low line. You don't have to go back any further than 2015 to find the importance of this level at FOMC prices around that 2114 mark. The new floor or ceiling seems to be around that 2163-2173 pivot. Giving this pivot some wiggle room cause of that 1991-1993 level. Back at the beginning of the year and again around Brexit this was a level I though was very important. I really had no idea it was going to be the secondary low for 2016.

The other thing is the November 2012 low. At 4 years x225 you get that level of 2243 (900+1343). Then of course we have the 80/20 rule I simply cannot ignore along with the infamous 2214. Ahead of FOMC there is still a 90 point range from 1991-2081 that warrants caution. Nearly a year ago this recent low was the high back in November. Gotta respect this FOMC pivot area til it is gone. Even at that it can easily be seen as a bear trap til 2081 is taken out.

Zoomed in a bit cause I don't think we have to look past the June low for now

Thursday, October 6, 2016

October 6, 2016

I noticed things are coming to a crawl here and really apologize for being so busy. I really just haven't had time. Came to Colorado for some work and then ended up getting nailed with a big storm back home. I have stayed in Colorado as the lone wolf. Not sure if I am ever gonna leave. Absolutely love it here and it has replaced North Carolina for where I wanna spend my last years.

As I glanced at the charts it seems they just wanna milk it out. Really thinking it is just ahead of FOMC or Election Day that is going to wisk us to that ultimate high so long anticipated. It still appears something from that 2214-2242 range before it ends. I don't like the idea of getting above 2214 but it has to set a future move somewhere so I can live with the 2242 if need be. Long anticipated target and now in a date range that fits. NFP could be the trigger to get that price level. Plenty of time and room for divergence to play out.

Hoping to find a little time to get a couple trades in very soon and to spend a little time here as allowed. Finally catching my breath. Thank you all for staying the course and I hope ya don't give up.

I just added a new set of lines to the chart I constantly post based off this most recent 2119 low. Bear line still well below us. I will point out the June low plus 240 in 120 days for those still doubting higher highs. 3.33 times the 666.79 in a 9 year high to high span has a nice ring (give or take the future move forward)


Tuesday, September 13, 2016

9-13-16

I know 200ma had planned on putting his thoughts on a new post this past weekend, but he's busier than a one-armed paper hanger these days, so I'm throwing this up just to get a new thread started.
(If you happen on by here 200, please feel free to overwrite if the mood catches you.)

I think I may have posted this in an earlier thread, but we are still not anywhere near out of options for how this market may go.  At least we've got some volatility now, so that helps open up some day trades at least.  My personal feeling is that the break to the downside of the tight BB ride we had is most likely a fake-out and we'll rip to points further north soon enough, but whether that's the wave 3 blow-off top or the ending diagonal is anyone's guess.


(As a side-note, the third option could be done with wave (iii) and into (iv) as another possibility.)
Happy trading.

Friday, August 12, 2016

8-13-16 (dog days... )

I gots dem low-volume-summa-time bluuuues....


Need I really say more?  I've no more crystal ball than anyone else here, but we are certainly overbought and at what could be looked at as a complete EW 5-count up since Brexit.  

Volume has been steadily dropping since February, and an even more pronounced decline since the late June low (which in 3rd waves should be getting stronger), so there's that to scratch your head over too.  The only way I can see that this might be bearish beyond a refresher-pullback would be if this is some kind of giant B wave of a multi-year expanded flat.  The volume thing would be consistent with that, but I have no more than coin flip odds on the idea.


VIX is currently in a tube only about 2.3 points wide, so somethings gotta give.