Thursday, April 26, 2018

April 26, 2018

One more time we run up into that 2670-78 area and stall. Bulls have another day to attempt to make it a positive week, and 2 more days to keep the month green (open was 2633.45). We are still 200 points under the January high removed 3 months but somehow the bovines would make you believe we are making new highs. Just a reminder that  FOMC is coming up Wednesday.
Anyone notice what is happening at months end and into at least the 1st trading day of the month?

Sunday, April 22, 2018

Week of April 23, 2018

It was a busy weekend and it is going to be a busy week for me. I plan to be around as much as I can but time will be limited for the first couple days of the week. I trust you guys will keep things running smoothly with your excellent insights.

Bulls need to capture that 2696 area for any hope and they can't mess around trying to do so. I cannot get off the target I have been proposing no matter how hard I try. The current long breaks (2554-2717) at 2616. I think once it is gone things will accelerate to the downside. The area I am targeting has 7 years worth of May issues I believe have to be dealt with. Everything above 2200 has to be resolved.

All the near term paths I see lead to the same place unless there is BULL to be had and this is looking very unlikely. There are lower targets but I want to focus on one at a time because I believe it will be a choppy mess down until we get where we are going.

Left side chart labels are February low to March high. Right side labels April low to April high (high so far anyway)

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

April 17, 2018

We accomplished filling the 3/21 gap today. In the last post I wrote:

"Upside isn't limited aside from the 2680-2715 area the way I see it. I think it could fill its 3/21 gap and not hurt a thing."

Last week we accomplished 2680 and as of today the latter at the gap fill. Although we are in a thinly traded area on the way up we had to gap up over this level and on the way down we tested it a couple times. The chart has a daily space for the Good Friday candle that doesn't exist but you will notice the black dashed at the high today that it would have tagged if not for that space. This line commonly rejects price action. When they made the run into the January high there really wasn't anything in the way. Having said all that it leaves room for about 4 points higher than today. Given the uncertainty of Monkeys and #RMS that is possible unless the aforementioned decide they need another gap up over it. The Fed seems to have forgotten their promise to this point or the Chinese are taking all of our crap without us knowing it. Anyway, we could just DIE right here as well. The March Opex high was on a Tuesday before....(just sayin')

The close up version

Saturday, April 14, 2018

April 15, 2018

Why say anything? I may add something, I may not. VIX looked like it was just a manipulated product

Sunday, April 8, 2018

Week of April 9, 2018

I know no more than the next person in line when it comes to what this thing is going to do but I will tell you my preferred path and how I would like to see this unfold. I am going to use a weekly chart that is simpler to look at although it is widely based on a daily chart.

Into this week I see absolutely no reason we can't go higher than the last 2. It is just in the realm of the Fed and so far in 2018 we just haven't missed. If we miss it this time I will be a little surprised. Upside isn't limited aside from the 2680-2715 area the way I see it. I think it could fill its 3/21 gap and not hurt a thing. As far as that 2693-97 area even after the gap down on 3/21 we attempted to make a run at it the following day with a gap down then small touch back up at it before turning harder.

The reason I think ya give this a chance to run up if it can actually do so can be summed up in 2 words...The Fed. I touched on the bond stuff last month and my thesis behind these mid month highs. Bonds mature mid month and the 1st. Prior to these to spots it only makes sense to get this higher to sell from. The mid month stuff can be a little trickier although it really didn't matter in March where they started earlier. Maybe it was related to the quarter ending. I have no clue what is due in this time frame nor what they can rollover. This is beyond my pay grade. QT is also supposed to increase this month as well. Securities the Fed holds are held part of this unwind too and I mentioned the potential for a fire sale.

Now provided we do move higher as I have anticipated I would think those on the bullish side of things are going to think here we go, we are off to the races. TRAP them even on a little gap up a week from this Monday opening and it could be too late for some to jump ship or harder yet a gap down that same day since the 15th falls over the weekend. The way I have been plotting this out since it is now obvious we aren't moving to a higher high that was still a possibility 2 months ago, is to target that measured move into 2460-61 into May. I don't really have it squaring up until mid May but the shift of a couple weeks could easily push it there by May 1. I have been saying 2440-2474 area is highly possible during the month of April. 2460-61 is so ideal and we should legitimately bounce, but it may not be the big one everyone wants. I don't see how this doesn't target at least 2325. That would actually suffice a bit better as I only focus on the "short" time frame. The Fed and Draghi can change this but from what JP has said it isn't going to change their plans to keep up QT (until of course it does).  Even in May the 2401 pivot looms and it isn't just because it is the March 2017 high. It is also 7x7x7x7 or 49x49.

Good stuff on that last thread guys. I am going to leave it open a couple days just in case a couple more comments are added there.

Weekly SPX back to the 2016 lows

Thursday, April 5, 2018

April 5, 2018

The last thread was getting a little cluttered so a quick one to get us through the week.

By now you all know how I feel about the Fed and their antics. I made myself a promise that 2693 would trade next week so this is something to show you why I think so. Prior to next week I will put up a new post but for now this is all I am going to do.

First vertical is minutes next week, the 2nd is into the following Monday the 16th, and the next red vertical is FOMC on May 2nd. I have a small 1 frame / day gap in this chart but for now it is close enough. At the beginning of the week I thought 2681 could trade this week and that was after I wanted about 20 higher than the February low....

Sunday, April 1, 2018

April Fool's Day

As I was going through charts early in the extended weekend I was somewhat bothered by the January high as has been the case for awhile. I found a spot off the line between the 1/16 and 1/31 high that made me wonder why we had to run up and tag 2873 when 2840 seemed more than appropriate. I then decided I needed to work a new chart basing my thesis off that rather than what is currently the ATH. Without  boring you I found that May, July, and August of 2017 suggested the rest of that stuff above that line wasn't necessary aside from the need of punching something higher. If they had wanted there was room to about 2910 which would have been a better overall fit. After a bit of deciphering I decided to find out if the lines on the way up would match those on the way down and this was the result (1st attempt at the steeper down slope was calculated against the others).

I decided to eliminate the older lines due to clutter cause it is quite honestly messy enough the way it stands and since we are moving forward those lines are not about to happen again since the decline commenced. The steep uptrending red line was derived off 2x both time and price running back up. Those lost oomph at the March high but that isn't to say this recent low cannot cause another such move. I type that tongue in cheek due to the fact that when it had a chance to keep running last week it ran out of steam 2 lines lower than 2 weeks before. Thursday's high simply back tested it into the close before we saw it start backing off. We are losing the lines of support that it made on the way up at points that are now resistance at a faster pace and are accepting the lower levels a little easier since mid March. Until they change things I believe these lines could be carried forward on a daily and for sure weekly basis as a tell. The high made this past Thursday to close out March is a decent mark but even above it there are issues to the gap made at the close 3/21. I am a gap and wick kinda guy when it comes to S/R stuff and where I draw some of my lines. I will clean this up some more and post a new chart prior to the open on Monday. I think the market can hunt 2700-2720 again in the near term provided it can hold that low line. If you look close enough at both the SPX and the RUT charts you can see a longer time frame for a triangle to play out. The RUT may let us know first and this week could start some rapid selling. 2533 probably won't mean squat on a break where it would most likely accelerate downward movement. A break could actually send it 45 or so lower in a hurry.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Last week of March 2018

I am going to keep it simple. It is bearish til it isn't. We haven't had what is considered a decent correction for 15-24 months so I have no issues. Hell they could gap it up and run all week and it won't change my mind. Keep a triangle look to it? It was an odd close on that line so they could get fruity or they could just open it below and keep on running. I have no interest in upside aside from scalping a long if and when I feel like it. Plenty suggesting 2467 from where we sit and I base this on the Election low that occurred in the overnight hours that we don't see on charts aside from futures.  I am just going to go with the close up view of SPX since it really hasn't changed since Friday. RUT also just for chits and giggles (and One).

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

March 21, 2018 (FOMC Day)

As you all know I am bullish with this meeting cause to this point the Fed hasn't disappointed when it comes to their path. With Mr. Powell's first announcement today they have put themselves in a tough but not impossible spot for a rally. Unless they can get a break below something in the mid 2670's I think there is a chance that could start the "march" into a higher high. As luck would have it a break to the upside above 2730ish is about all it would take to get things moving. I am not an EW guy as all of you are aware but I honestly don't see how this can be counted with any certainty based on the path it has been on. The guys I trust most with this are here so I do pay attention.

Originally the plan was for a higher high into April / May yet for a few days they had it in a position where March couldn't be ruled out. With the quarter coming to an end I just don't believe profit taking will happen before we get closer to the end of it. Couple this with the Fed having to unload more of their balance sheet and who knows. There are just too many gaps above for me to think they stay open even if it takes a little longer to get there. I am not giving up on the 2822 gap closing with this announcement until proven otherwise. 2700ish is the first order of business for downside today in my view...

Monday, March 12, 2018

March 12, 2018

As a trader nothing frustrates me more than having something completely right then bailing leaving capital on the table. This past Friday was one one of these instances though when they worked through the area I wanted to get short at I had told myself this market was going out at the close on the highs. Instead at the next level around 2780 I decided adding to shorts was better even though I saw a target of 2807ish right after that. Needless to say I got stopped out and ended up giving back on some of the calls I sold earlier in the day. Stupidity excellently executed on my behalf. I always bail early on calls because for some reason I find it difficult to give money back when trading to the upside. I see and talk about the higher PT's, enough said.

The last time we were trading in this area it only took about 8 or 9 days to set the current ATH. In other words once we clear above the 2807ish area there isn't anything to stop what little resistance we have at the gap of 2822 and 2853. Both of these offer a little up to and in between these levels. We are entering the 3rd and 4th weeks of the month with both Quad Opex and FOMC fast approaching. 2732 almost appears to be the line in the sand downside at this juncture.

The timing at Opex could become a big deal as we find treasuries maturing at mid month and the end of each month. Watching these time frames as the Fed is unloading could help going forward. We have about 160B up for auction the next couple of days, perhaps a leading indicator...

Purple dashed line at the open this past Friday comes off the election low...(Trump line)