Sunday, June 24, 2018

Week of June 25, 2018

Before I get started I just want to say thanks to you guys. I know our traffic has slowed considerably but you guys continue to hang around and share. I find this valuable in being able to stay more grounded from a trading point of view. Thank you!

Now, I hate to continue to beat a dead horse but I stand by my calls for lower before another all time high. We haven't been able to pick up buyers in the area, or at least to this point, that indicate they want to in that 2770-80 area. As much as I dislike the idea of a January high, I have to think about the outside influences that led us into is. QE ended in 2014 and QT has started but not necessarily with the force I would have thought. Market cap however is huge so what do I know. The tax cut led us into that high so the market has to know something we don't. Buybacks, System Open Market Accounting , and seeming decent earnings have aided in keeping this propped up from this trader's perspective. Bringing some normalcy to the market seems the right thing to do. We are at an interesting juncture just ahead of 4th of July fireworks. We have the typical end of month, 1st of month decline and FOMC minutes into the first week of July. It seems the finale is near...

I will post some other charts in the thread, for now just the SPX daily up here to save room...

Monday, June 18, 2018

June 18, 2018

It seems we ran into that thin area of resistance and are at least trying to correct a little here. The range from 2736-2743 should be the first test and I believe once it breaks down the 2678-2702 area would be the next lines of reasonable support. I drew a potential MP on the daily chart so assuming it could be right it would need a run into the VWAP area which would pretty much reside in the 2700-2730ish area. I still believe this resolves lower before a higher high but until there is substantial movement I am just going to watch #RMS do its thing.

Monday, June 11, 2018

June 11, 2018

Just a quick chart for now. I don't understand the issue with where we are because there wasn't much here into the mid to late January issues aside from the high in Feb and March. This can easily run up into the 2822 gap fill by Wednesday if they want it to. We are in that window where I originally thought we could have made the higher high end of May + a couple weeks. I had given up on this notion but it is what it is. Perhaps just a lower high from the looks of things

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Last week of May 2018

As I look at ES this morning it appears the ramp up last Sunday evening to save a Holiday week was the result of #RMS. We are definitely not starting this week out with the enthusiasm even with the attempt after the close on last Friday.

There is support in stages all the way into the 2640 area but once that breaks we probably make a trip down to the 2568-2575 area. A break of 2640 can also ignite something more severe. You guys all know my stance on this. I may have bias but I have also not given up on the fact this is going to resolve lower. The path is not simple with all the intervention occurring to protect the frailty of this market.

Chart is the one originally created based on the 1/26 and 3/13 highs in conjunction with the 2/9 low. This is another I had ignored since that run off the 2595 low. I  don't know when I last posted it but seeing it again opened up my eyes. Seems apparent what line needs to be crossed to get higher. Admittedly I have been a bit lazy due in large part to my bias, so I apologize. I have been to focused on the moment rather than the intermediate and longer term charts I had created.

Monday, May 21, 2018

May 21, 2018

I was a little shocked to see Futures were up 20+ at the Sunday night open after what we had seen on Friday. Having said that I know it isn't unusual for us to see a high going into this week. We have the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday and I for one am very interested to see what they have to say. I am curious to see if there was talk of tapering back the QT program.

I do understand this is a bull market until it isn't. However, we all see and know what the larger macro-economic picture looks like. I remain bearish in the intermediate term. I can only guess, but I don't believe this finishes correcting until the August-October time frame. I cannot find myself being a buyer other than to catch the rips when they occur. Evidence of the #RiggedMarketSyndrome, such as last night, does not make this task easy either. There remains too much free air down to around the 2200 area for me to ignore.

SPX has managed to hold on to its 20 week moving average but the Dow did not and found trouble there. I think it is fair to say we all thought the RUT could do as it has but up around that 1640 area has to be difficult provided it can do it. Overall, even with the recent run of the Dollar it still looks weak if you look at the larger time frames. The domestic nature of the RUT probably won't be hurt until the Dollar starts to roll.

Due to the nature of the market conditions I plan to get what I can via the daily / weekly scalps provided instead of marrying a longer term position. As of last Monday I am short with June 250's yet again but the position isn't nearly what I had planned for May. Those stung a bit but scalping a few longs helped what could have been a lot more pain. Time to take what they give and leave the greed to those in charge of #RMS.

I had ignored the weekly chart last week cause of a slight injury and wasn't interested that much in the charts. Obviously if I had been looking I would have seen last week's high due to this back test.

Monday, May 14, 2018

May 14, 2018

I won't be very chatty for a couple weeks. I had a stupid accident and managed to break the first 2 fingers of my left hand. Typing strictly one handed though I may set up the tablet for this so I can just speak.

Anyway, we are up against a bit of channel resistance at price levels that are fairly thinly traded. Biggest resistance I can find actually lies about 2748 though we are in a tough spot even up into that level. We have some gaps overhead and the nearest one is that 2752. Obviously I am not going to get my 2461 by the end of the week but I still think we are going lower. Things are only bullish until they aren't ....

Monday, May 7, 2018

May 7, 2018

Unfortunately I haven't had time to go over anything this past weekend. I did notice they kept bleeding this up on Friday and since the open last night. We know there are issues near 2678 give or take and of course the Fed stuff from 2693-2713 that has been in play since the start of the year.

This coming Friday is rank day for the RUT so I wouldn't be all that surprised if they somehow keep this thing elevated. Though this is a possibility it doesn't seem it is really making any difference with the small caps showing more strength than the rest of the market.

My honest opinion / bias remains the same but I won't hesitate to scalp a long when it presents itself. This was the first time this year that the SPX has tested and gotten above the high made on FOMC day so there could be an underlying unknown only the big money knows about. All in all the easiest way to sum it up is #RMS.

Sunday, April 29, 2018

1st Week of May

As hard as I try to look up I just can't. I am able to see higher prices but I cannot find the path to get there unless it is on a gap up and over these problem areas. I wouldn't be shocked to see something up near 2700 but until they can clear and trade above it upside is limited in my view. This should be a telling week and most likely in the first half of it as far as direction. FOMC is on tap for Wednesday so perhaps this is the next catalyst. The 1st of the month has been weak so let's see if the pattern continues.

Thursday, April 26, 2018

April 26, 2018

One more time we run up into that 2670-78 area and stall. Bulls have another day to attempt to make it a positive week, and 2 more days to keep the month green (open was 2633.45). We are still 200 points under the January high removed 3 months but somehow the bovines would make you believe we are making new highs. Just a reminder that  FOMC is coming up Wednesday.
Anyone notice what is happening at months end and into at least the 1st trading day of the month?

Sunday, April 22, 2018

Week of April 23, 2018

It was a busy weekend and it is going to be a busy week for me. I plan to be around as much as I can but time will be limited for the first couple days of the week. I trust you guys will keep things running smoothly with your excellent insights.

Bulls need to capture that 2696 area for any hope and they can't mess around trying to do so. I cannot get off the target I have been proposing no matter how hard I try. The current long breaks (2554-2717) at 2616. I think once it is gone things will accelerate to the downside. The area I am targeting has 7 years worth of May issues I believe have to be dealt with. Everything above 2200 has to be resolved.

All the near term paths I see lead to the same place unless there is BULL to be had and this is looking very unlikely. There are lower targets but I want to focus on one at a time because I believe it will be a choppy mess down until we get where we are going.

Left side chart labels are February low to March high. Right side labels April low to April high (high so far anyway)