Sunday, August 12, 2018

Week of August 13, 2018

With the exception of July when we moved higher, an Opex week high has been typical all of 2018 (January excluded yet it is a 6 month equivalent for the most part). Back in January when 2853 broke on a similar gap down we never recovered until last week. We have the similar gap down now as of this past Friday.

I fully expect to retest the gap this time around and most likely with an Opex high though it may not be the monthly high this time around. That could have already printed.

The VIX just did the 2 outside close of the Std 20,2 BB, got back inside, closed, then made a higher high the 2nd day. This should be telling of things to come. The move expected higher may be on a leash here however. I still believe we are going to mimic August 2015 and perhaps the February 2016 and 2018 moves soon. I am still in the camp of the minutes release the 22nd when the SHTF again. Until then I think we can make a lower low or at least retest the Friday low into Monday and most likely recover into Friday when we get the whipsaw / chop into the 22nd beforehand. This has nothing to do with August supposedly being a bearish month. Since 1928 there have actually been 52 bullish compared to 38 bearish not counting 2018. September is the most bearish on a monthly number of declines vs any other month. 40 up and 49 down.

Weekly and daily charts ...Daily MACD has not cleared the June high on any of these recent highs not to mention the $NYMO has failed to reach the July 12th high. I believe something was done to the $NYMO chart because I hadn't seen a daily close above 0 until I looked at the chart again today

Monday, August 6, 2018

August 6, 2018

I believe we are in for a little more of the same. Personally I am expecting a high today then retreat into mid week. I don't have a downside target for how deep but think we will get a decline, bounce a bit then decline again into Friday. Whether this is just a retests or deeper I haven't a clue. I think they will do their best to keep this propped up into the week of Opex and a bit the following week before anything steeper starts. It just fits the cycle. I also think we can get another RYFO near the end of this week or a week from today into next Monday.
The game must go on....
Retest or a little higher today (the 6th) then down I believe.

Thursday, August 2, 2018

August 2, 2018

Well similar to prior moves we have achieved the 6 month round trip circa May 2015 to November 2015 and are retreating. So far just damage but not broken quite yet. ES has now broken the 2765.75 long so it is all about the cash chart now.

Sunday, July 22, 2018

Week of July 23, 2018

I am going to make this short and sweet. For the week and heading into FOMC I am not as bearish as I probably could be. I think we hunt something in the 2770-2780 range and manage to bounce into that end of month FOMC. Anything lower is just going to be a gift. August 1st stuff coming up with perfect timing at FOMC. Lack of a higher high than this past week probably brings on more downside than imagine. We have some decent symmetry going on into this past weeks high that aligns well with August 1st. I plan to get into some November puts (strikes to be determined) before the SHTF. A busy chart so apologies, but it shows what I am looking for over the next 2-3 months.

I think we can easily gap down at the open Sunday night.

Monday, July 9, 2018

Week of July9, 2018

We now get into the bullish portion with week 2 of a new month upon us. The question will be if they can get it to 2780 and hold it or is this just too far too fast already and we make the hard turn very soon. Time to KISS and just let the market tell us. The end of the month brings us the 6 month anniversary of the ATH print to this point.

Sunday, July 1, 2018

Beginning of Q3 and 4th of July is here

4th of July already! The holidays just seem to have a way of sneaking up on a guy quicker as he gets older it seems.

I won't get too deep into it for the holiday week. QT Monday, 4th Wednesday, FOMC minutes Thursday, NFP Friday. I think Monday should tell us a lot. I can see a complete break down or just one more lower low for another countertrend rally. If the latter would occur it could set up NFP Friday as the Grand Finale if it were to trade back up into the pivot. For the past couple of months QT on the 1st hasn't given us much more than about 3/4-1% declines. The amount they take off will move higher beginning this month however. Barring of course the Fed doesn't change their mind. I for one do not believe Powell is about to do that.

Enjoy the week and have a happy and safe 4th.

Election Line Chart via candlestick mode and up close. Lines are mine and H/T to One for the MM stuff. Tweaked a little for my own personal satisfaction (Ignore green lines farthest right on chart, they are skewed due to a time frame inversion) The red line across Jan-June high is meaningless until such time it is tagged again

Sunday, June 24, 2018

Week of June 25, 2018

Before I get started I just want to say thanks to you guys. I know our traffic has slowed considerably but you guys continue to hang around and share. I find this valuable in being able to stay more grounded from a trading point of view. Thank you!

Now, I hate to continue to beat a dead horse but I stand by my calls for lower before another all time high. We haven't been able to pick up buyers in the area, or at least to this point, that indicate they want to in that 2770-80 area. As much as I dislike the idea of a January high, I have to think about the outside influences that led us into is. QE ended in 2014 and QT has started but not necessarily with the force I would have thought. Market cap however is huge so what do I know. The tax cut led us into that high so the market has to know something we don't. Buybacks, System Open Market Accounting , and seeming decent earnings have aided in keeping this propped up from this trader's perspective. Bringing some normalcy to the market seems the right thing to do. We are at an interesting juncture just ahead of 4th of July fireworks. We have the typical end of month, 1st of month decline and FOMC minutes into the first week of July. It seems the finale is near...

I will post some other charts in the thread, for now just the SPX daily up here to save room...

Monday, June 18, 2018

June 18, 2018

It seems we ran into that thin area of resistance and are at least trying to correct a little here. The range from 2736-2743 should be the first test and I believe once it breaks down the 2678-2702 area would be the next lines of reasonable support. I drew a potential MP on the daily chart so assuming it could be right it would need a run into the VWAP area which would pretty much reside in the 2700-2730ish area. I still believe this resolves lower before a higher high but until there is substantial movement I am just going to watch #RMS do its thing.

Monday, June 11, 2018

June 11, 2018

Just a quick chart for now. I don't understand the issue with where we are because there wasn't much here into the mid to late January issues aside from the high in Feb and March. This can easily run up into the 2822 gap fill by Wednesday if they want it to. We are in that window where I originally thought we could have made the higher high end of May + a couple weeks. I had given up on this notion but it is what it is. Perhaps just a lower high from the looks of things

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Last week of May 2018

As I look at ES this morning it appears the ramp up last Sunday evening to save a Holiday week was the result of #RMS. We are definitely not starting this week out with the enthusiasm even with the attempt after the close on last Friday.

There is support in stages all the way into the 2640 area but once that breaks we probably make a trip down to the 2568-2575 area. A break of 2640 can also ignite something more severe. You guys all know my stance on this. I may have bias but I have also not given up on the fact this is going to resolve lower. The path is not simple with all the intervention occurring to protect the frailty of this market.

Chart is the one originally created based on the 1/26 and 3/13 highs in conjunction with the 2/9 low. This is another I had ignored since that run off the 2595 low. I  don't know when I last posted it but seeing it again opened up my eyes. Seems apparent what line needs to be crossed to get higher. Admittedly I have been a bit lazy due in large part to my bias, so I apologize. I have been to focused on the moment rather than the intermediate and longer term charts I had created.