Monday, December 4, 2017

December 4, 2017

We continue to climb to higher highs. If ya ask me this thing is outta control. I try to stay neutral most of the time but I can honestly say I am bearish is hell. Maybe I have to wait til year end to get this right. I haven't a clue at this point. Breach of that 2654ish price said it was a buy but I don't have faith in much higher. It is what it is and requires more patience than I apparently have. Ahead of the Fed and with this tax bill crap I am merely going to be a bit more cautious.

Missed the upper line today but I fully expect to tag it again. This could drop to nearly 2650 and have a decent run back to a new high. Time enough to get a new high, pull back and retest it before the year ends. Looks like it could play out like late 2015 into early 2016?

Sunday, November 19, 2017

November 20, 2017

I am tossing this up just to get something new up. Weekend got pretty busy on me so I haven't really had a chance to examine things more closely. I will do that during the week. For now all I know is the 2597.02 was pretty much the 161.8 of the November 2016 low and March 1st high. My concern is this thing trying to form a top into year end until we see something lower with enthusiasm. I did notice the put / call ratio is climbing in the indexes and very relaxed in the VIX so perhaps this comes to fruition. This is a short week so I will make sure to get something else up after Turkey Day. Glad to be back and have some time in here and to trade a with a little more regularity.

I put a couple price labels (+/- 4 to 8) on the chart above for bullish cases. The blue trend lines are the ones to watch for over the next 3 weeks. The upper red trend line is the most bullish I have and you can see it does run up and tag the line in the sand for bears. Pretty much strictly based on FOMC shit

Monday, September 4, 2017

September 5, 2017

I want to start out by apologizing for my lack of attention here. I have been extremely busy and will continue to be so through at least September. This is going to be a tough month because I will be on the road up in Breckenridge most of September.

As far as the market goes I am still expecting that higher high this month or next. My target is 2513-2531. We are currently at a tough spot but it was the bulls in control last week and I think it will continue into FOMC this month. We left a little shooting star up there on Friday but I don't really believe we will leave any gaps in this territory so even if we start out on the bearish side I wouldn't expect it to continue for long (perhaps this gets it started LOL). Anyway I closed out my September position the week before last at pretty much break even. I sold TLT for a decent profit so all in all I can't complain other than the lack of trading and trading time I have had.

That's it for now and I promise to try to check in as time warrants. Good luck and keep 'em green!

Tossing up a Dow weekly just cause it isn't something I watch a lot but had some stuff drawn that has all  occurred to this point. It exceeded my red line but the blue has held so far. 

Sunday, June 4, 2017

June 5, 2015

It has been tough to find the time I need to do any trading. That being said it appears some opening bells could be available in the near future. My apologies for not being available to give my stupid opinions. Nonetheless I have a moment so I am gonna.

None of it looks easy and I haven't a clue where we will find the eventual top to this bull run. There are a couple price points of interest to me right now and I plan to get a short in very soon. 2449-2470 hold my interest and the latter would probably coincide with the June rollover or shortly thereafter.

This run since the election is just nuts and so is all the bullshit that has followed. Those who are close to me know I have talked about the pussification of America for quite awhile now. Never in my life have I seen such crap from the media as I have been witness to over the past 4-5 months. It is crazy we can't let the most powerful person in our country try to do the job he was elected to do. My opinion of the non-stop crap is that they are merely trying to make us all forget the other bullshit that came before. I mean c'mon!?..did the Russians vote in our country? I won't even get into Bengazi or Bin Laden. Just pisses me off too much to see this crap day in and day out. For the record I hate both parties so this isn't political for me as far as Dem vs Rep. For me it's been 40 years of pricks and broken promises. It hasn't been about the American citizen in a very long's about the 1%. Accept it and move on

Anyway I plan to get a short position started this week. Time being a factor I will probably get into Sept 220's to start. I am expecting at least a 10% haircut soon.

Sunday, April 23, 2017

April 24,2017

Wow a third of the way through 2017 already!

I have been too busy to keep up on news events and the like. All I see is that higher high coming and with what futures have done this evening it has to be completely on the table (doesn't look like a bull trap at this point). The SPX doesn't have to do much more than hold the 2363-2366 area to stay above the down trend line so with FOMC in a week and a half ya may as well hold on.

They played around all week trying to allow it to fail but there just aren't any interested sellers the way I see it. Still reminds me much of the Nov 2012-May 2013 run as I had mentioned before. I am currently flat any option trades. Still hold ABX and NEM in the other account but as far as jumping into something now it will be later in the week before I make that decision and have time to actually study something. Friday I had gotten in with 9 minutes left in the day and considered grabbing some June shorts but didn't like the looks of the line it was holding off the  Dec FOMC high and that Jan 26th high just prior to the Feb FOMC. Right now it looks like I made the right choice.

Stay safe and be smart on the bearish side is all I have for now. Weather appears to be allowing me some time later in the week. Before that I gotta get done what I can. Keep 'em Green!

As usual enough damage has been done over time to allow a true divergence to set itself up. As they say.............Wait for it..........

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

March 22, 2017

It's still about the Fed. I had mentioned the previous lows made after the February 1st FOMC and the line coming off them. Yesterday (Monday) we broke it and traded under it although it was a relatively quiet session. Today we opened at the top of that line (back test) and fell off over 1%! Something that didn't look as though it could ever happen again.

Although it can take longer than bears may have patience for it has been my experience from watching the Fed crap that when it breaks down it will typically hunt the last FOMC price whether it be a high or low. For me this means we should test either the 1/26 high or the 12/13/2016 high. I kept the line intact on the chart off these highs and it comes across in the 2333ish area. It's still all about patience.

I know the chart is a little busy but I want to point out the dashed blue line we back tested today and that black line at the bottom of today's candle. Other lines are there because the Fed and it's partners in crime can decide where we stop whenever they want.

I didn't count trading days but just off a calendar day view the run up from the November low to the March 1st high was basically 315 in 120 or roughly 2.625/per day. The move is also similar in price as that of the Oct 2014 low to the May 2015 high. That one of course ate up a little more time than this. The other bullish move made was Nov 2012-May 2013 that was roughly 345. This extra 30 is where the 886+1552 or possible + 1576 could come into play. The question around this would be when the possibility comes. Even if you look back to the Sept high we came a long ways in about half the time it should have taken.The December high comes into play just before the release of minutes in April....
The shaded box needs to some point

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

March 15, 2017 FOMC

Interesting little break (but save) off the last 2 FOMC lows today. A break lower than this should send us into the 2330ish area which would be the line off the December 13 and Jan 26 highs. The March 1st high at 2401 is a pretty good fit here but nothing from a TA appearance allows for it to look finished. So far it is just another minimal pull back eating up more time than price. From a timing stance and looking back this rally reminds me much of the Nov 2012 low that rallied into May of 2013. This one is a couple weeks ahead of that so the fit puts it right into the May 1st FOMC. Sell in May and ....?

Downside doesn't appear to be done here either and since we are in a seasonal expiration this week I think we should be able to trust this since SPY dividend will cause it to take a hit on Friday. Not sure the higher gap gets filled but I would expect the 2383 at some point. I think patience is in order downside til 2285 is gone.

Friday, March 3, 2017

March 3, 2017

Just gonna toss this up in a post and see if it sticks


High made in 2000 was earlier than the S&P's so the red line off the July and October highs in 2007 might work here   

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

February 22, 2017

For some odd reason I am not able to post a chart below. It keeps telling me I have to sign in even though I am. Might be a firewall/cookie issue?

So here is a new post here just to show what I am seeing. This is a weekly chart so a bit easier to see the lines. I put a couple other levels above and am not calling a top here. I am just thinking it needs a breather very soon at a minimum.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

February 21, 2017

Time is short so just a quick weekly chart for now. Minutes released on Wednesday and this was a secondary week for a high I ignored long ago. At this juncture and these levels I am not so sure it can't repeat 2015. 2360 was my next target and what I had hoped was an ultimate high but the ability to blow through 2200 and 2250 without pause (or trading) makes me wonder. Issues at 2401 if not sooner.